Re: Long Range Thread 25.0

[Math23x7]

The 12/9 0Z 12 km NAM for Sunday gives a couple of inches of snow for me here in Albany with higher amounts to my south and west in the Catskills.

Keep in mind that with the strong -PNA, systems that come this way have a better chance of giving snow to the interior northeast than to the I-95 corridor. Also keep in mind that there is a cutoff where the precipitation will fizzle out as indicated by hr 84, so I would like to see if the location of the snow band holds.

Though in my case, given the pattern, I would these amounts shown and run with them.

[jmanley32]

If I can see some flakes I would be pleased with that for this time of year and with the mild temps we have had.

[docstox12]

Look at what the block does to a cutter... shoves it SE about 550 miles.

Mugsy, excellent post illustrating what blocking is and it's effects.As they say, a picture is worth a thousand words.It's very clear to me now what the concept is.Amazing what it does to a cutter, the storm track we snow lovers hate.

[docstox12]

The 12/9 0Z 12 km NAM for Sunday gives a couple of inches of snow for me here in Albany with higher amounts to my south and west in the Catskills.

Keep in mind that with the strong -PNA, systems that come this way have a better chance of giving snow to the interior northeast than to the I-95 corridor.  Also keep in mind that there is a cutoff where the precipitation will fizzle out as indicated by hr 84, so I would like to see if the location of the snow band holds.

Though in my case, given the pattern, I would these amounts shown and run with them.

Looking more and more today that I will get here in the LHV 1-3 according to Accuweather or 1 1/2 to 2 1/2 according to NWS.Would be a nice opening act for the snow season.It's still Fall and snow before winter starts is not too common.Think Damian has the best chance to jackpot on this one.

[heehaw453]

The 12/9 0Z 12 km NAM for Sunday gives a couple of inches of snow for me here in Albany with higher amounts to my south and west in the Catskills.

Keep in mind that with the strong -PNA, systems that come this way have a better chance of giving snow to the interior northeast than to the I-95 corridor.  Also keep in mind that there is a cutoff where the precipitation will fizzle out as indicated by hr 84, so I would like to see if the location of the snow band holds.

Though in my case, given the pattern, I would these amounts shown and run with them.

Looking more and more today that I will get here in the LHV 1-3 according to Accuweather or 1 1/2 to 2 1/2 according to NWS.Would be a nice opening act for the snow season.It's still Fall and snow before winter starts is not too common.Think Damian has the best chance to jackpot on this one.

Sounds like a good call IMO 1-2" for LHV and Catskills/NW NJ/NEPA may get 3-4" due to elevation. The upper level low trajectory is not ideal and it's not well organized.  Below rt 80 there will be white rain right down to rt 78 with possible coatings on colder surfaces.  We take...

[heehaw453]

GFS pretty aggressive for next Friday 12/16ish.  Just looking at the h5 on the mean it has some of the hallmarks of what you'd want to see. Vigorous ULL starting to dive, a very nice look in Canada/Alaska forcing storms off the EC as opposed to through the Great Lakes. 50/50 low to help plug up the Atlantic flow. But the ridge is immature on the mean and that's going to be needed to dig the ULL and force it under the area as well as create a strong storm.  If that ridge starts to dip around Montana/Idaho through the Rockies, then big dog potential as shown on the GFS (second picture), but if it breaks down due to west coast trough not allowing the PNA to flex then much less interesting. As we say PNA doesn't need to be high in terms of a number it just needs to pop a bit at the right time. My guess is that the coastal plane has its best shot at seeing some snow from this to date, but unless/until other guidance comes in line with the ridge I think minor type of deal.

[MattyICE]

GFS pretty aggressive for next Friday 12/16ish.  Just looking at the h5 on the mean it has some of the hallmarks of what you'd want to see. Vigorous ULL starting to dive, a very nice look in Canada/Alaska forcing storms off the EC as opposed to through the Great Lakes. 50/50 low to help plug up the Atlantic flow. But the ridge is immature on the mean and that's going to be needed to dig the ULL and force it under the area as well as create a strong storm.  If that ridge starts to dip around Montana/Idaho through the Rockies, then big dog potential as shown on the GFS (second picture), but if it breaks down due to west coast trough not allowing the PNA to flex then much less interesting. As we say PNA doesn't need to be high in terms of a number it just needs to pop a bit at the right time. My guess is that the coastal plane has its best shot at seeing some snow from this to date, but unless/until other guidance comes in line with the ridge I think minor type of deal.

Agreed. It’s not our slam dunk, PNA ridge spike Classic Miller A look at all. Much more fickle with confluence and CAD and redevelopment cyclogenesis etc. Many more factors to give us anxiety while we track, but that’s what it’s about. All that said - we can still find ways to score to the coast here and I’d be rather surprised if we didn’t by Christmas.

[billg315]

Looks like the GFS lost that Friday-Saturday storm altogether on the 12z run. Of course, this would be the timeframe where the models would lose a storm only to find it again five days out.

[amugs]

Still watching…expected Stratospheric Warming illustrated by this map has materialized and resulted in the weakest PV at 100hPa on record. December is far from over and Poleward Heat Flux is now forecast to be +2 std deviations above normal. More interesting disruptions to come. https://t.co/5YfNJkHCCG pic.twitter.com/N5uu1WTvCt

— Mark Margavage (@MeteoMark) December 9, 2022

[heehaw453]

Looks like the GFS lost that Friday-Saturday storm altogether on the 12z run. Of course, this would be the timeframe where the models would lose a storm only to find it again five days out.

Hi Bill.  GFS 12z didn't lose it it's more the ridge popped too far east more in upper plains and the ULL didn't get a chance to amplify so it pushed out to sea.  The ridge pop is going to be pot luck IMO.  But what's encouraging is the GFS is showing a ridge potential and IMO has been better on the PAC side for modelling verification.  So we'll see.

[MattyICE]

Looks like the GFS lost that Friday-Saturday storm altogether on the 12z run. Of course, this would be the timeframe where the models would lose a storm only to find it again five days out.

Yeah this particular run demonstrates ANOTHER way we can avoid cashing in - TOO much blocking leading to a southern slider or just a real sheared out trough.

[SENJsnowman]

Looks like the GFS lost that Friday-Saturday storm altogether on the 12z run. Of course, this would be the timeframe where the models would lose a storm only to find it again five days out.

CMC/REM still has it in today's midday run. As a matter of fact, this was the strongest CMC run yet for next weekend: a foot plus for everyone N of I-78!

[heehaw453]

GEFS looking better on 12Z for 12/16 threat at the h5.  Note the PNA going neutral.  Long way to go here, but again seeing ridge potential is encouraging.  The Canadian also showed ridge potential too on its 12Z run. I'd say by Monday we know if this threat has legs or not.

[heehaw453]

This is what I've been noticing.  The PNA relaxes on the modelling and this gives a window.  The orientation of the ridge and the ULL strength all are factors in play.  But you see synoptically blocking, 50/50 low, vigorous ULL, PNA starting to relax and even pop.  So this all you can ask for at D6. Just need to see how this looks on Monday to see if these pieces are lining up. Players are on the table though...

[amugs]

Guys and gals, the GFS upgrade has been suffering major issues with its tropical heat and moisture algorithm calcs thus causing havoc amongst it s pattern recognition details as was stated by Dr. Alicia Bently and even the EMC platform group that worked on the upgrade. This is for anything outside of 6 days from what many who are investigating are saying. So analyze this model all you want in the long range but understand this and its outcome effects. The smallest details as we see can have massive downstream and upstream effects. The GEFS are different and did not receive an upgrade.
This euro map Haw posted above screams potential, high end at me.

[hyde345]

Guys and gals, the GFS upgrade has been suffering major issues with its tropical heat and moisture algorithm calcs thus causing havoc amongst it s pattern recognition details as was stated by Dr. Alicia Bently and even the EMC platform group that worked on the upgrade. This is for anything outside of 6 days from what many who are investigating are saying. So analyze this model all you want in the long range but understand this and its outcome effects. The smallest details as we see can have massive downstream and upstream effects. The GEFS are different and did not receive an upgrade.
This euro map Haw posted above screams potential, high end at me.

Just another example of a model performing worse after a so called upgrade. I have never trusted the GFS beyond 72 hours and certainly won't now.

[heehaw453]

The PNA increasing and the NAO relaxing around the 16th.  Many times when these two things coincide there is a significant winter storm on the EC. Notice around the 16th both values. 

[Math23x7]

The PNA increasing and the NAO relaxing around the 16th.  Many times when these two things coincide there is a significant winter storm on the EC. Notice around the 16th both values. 

I was about to post the PNA outlook to say that the trend was encouraging today in that regard. Also, there are indications that the EPO (while temporarily positive) may become super negative later this month. If, going forward, we have a slightly PNA and a super -EPO, I would be fine with that, even if the -AO/-NAO couplet breaks down. The 2013-14 and 2014-15 winters actually had just that, not so great Atlantic-based teleconnections, but great Pacific based teleconnections.

I would like to see this trend continue, however, before I get really excited about it. But for me here in Albany, the potential for a couple of inches of snow on Sunday, combined with the outside chance of something brewing for late next week, certainly have my interest.

[heehaw453]

The PNA increasing and the NAO relaxing around the 16th.  Many times when these two things coincide there is a significant winter storm on the EC. Notice around the 16th both values. 

I was about to post the PNA outlook to say that the trend was encouraging today in that regard.  Also, there are indications that the EPO (while temporarily positive) may become super negative later this month.  If, going forward, we have a slightly PNA and a super -EPO, I would be fine with that, even if the -AO/-NAO couplet breaks down.  The 2013-14 and 2014-15 winters actually had just that, not so great Atlantic-based teleconnections, but great Pacific based teleconnections.

I would like to see this trend continue, however, before I get really excited about it.  But for me here in Albany, the potential for a couple of inches of snow on Sunday, combined with the outside chance of something brewing for late next week, certainly have my interest.

2014-15 winter more so.  2013-14 was more neutral NAM, but your point is valid.  The cold was able to slip into the EC via the EPO/PNA and the amplification provided the storms...

[billg315]

18z GFS no better than the 12z for Fri-Sat. Very flat look. Well, have to place our hopes in our Canadian and European friends until the GFS jumps back on board.

[dkodgis]

Nooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooo

[hyde345]

18z GFS no better than the 12z for Fri-Sat. Very flat look.  Well, have to place our hopes in our Canadian and European friends until the GFS jumps back on board.

It just makes no sense being so flat and the low being weak and so far south. The Euro and CMC are are at least plausible solutions. I would be shocked if GFS is correct.

[billg315]

18z GFS no better than the 12z for Fri-Sat. Very flat look.  Well, have to place our hopes in our Canadian and European friends until the GFS jumps back on board.

It just makes no sense being so flat and the low being weak and so far south. The Euro and CMC are are at least plausible solutions. I would be shocked if GFS is correct.

Yeah, I’m not placing a lot of stock in these recent runs of the GFS right now. I think something is brewing for end-o-week. I’m not sure what exactly, but something more than what the gfs has been spitting out.

[amugs]

This is WOW JUST WOW!!
WHERE DID IT GO? Hiding with CP??



Could you imagine??

[Irish]

This is WOW JUST WOW!!
WHERE DID IT GO? Hiding with CP??



Could you imagine??

Ummmm... what happened?

[amugs]

This is WOW JUST WOW!!
WHERE DID IT GO? Hiding with CP??



Could you imagine??

Ummmm... what happened?

It is such a deep Negative EPO it is off the charts, if it verifies it shatters records and drive absolutely
tremendous cold into the lower 48.

This map is mint for extreme cold and the entire country goes into the freezer with this look.

This by the Euro Control would be a heck of a storm.

[jmanley32]

This is WOW JUST WOW!!
WHERE DID IT GO? Hiding with CP??



Could you imagine??

Ummmm... what happened?

It is such a deep Negative EPO it is off the charts, if it verifies it shatters records and drive absolutely
tremendous cold into the lower 48.

This map is mint for extreme cold and the entire country goes into the freezer with this look.

This by the Euro Control would be a heck of a storm.

Hour 312 really? really? We all know better than to look at that. 20's in FL, I will bet that won't happen but of course i could be wrong lets check back in 9-11 days.

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