Re: Long Range Thread 25.0

[amugs]

This is WOW JUST WOW!!
WHERE DID IT GO? Hiding with CP??



Could you imagine??

Ummmm... what happened?

It is such a deep Negative EPO it is off the charts, if it verifies it shatters records and drive absolutely
tremendous cold into the lower 48.

This map is mint for extreme cold and the entire country goes into the freezer with this look.

This by the Euro Control would be a heck of a storm.

[jmanley32]

This is WOW JUST WOW!!
WHERE DID IT GO? Hiding with CP??



Could you imagine??

Ummmm... what happened?

It is such a deep Negative EPO it is off the charts, if it verifies it shatters records and drive absolutely
tremendous cold into the lower 48.

This map is mint for extreme cold and the entire country goes into the freezer with this look.

This by the Euro Control would be a heck of a storm.

Hour 312 really? really? We all know better than to look at that. 20's in FL, I will bet that won't happen but of course i could be wrong lets check back in 9-11 days.

[SENJsnowman]

JMan, I thought that with teleconnectors, don’t we usually look a good 2 even 3 weeks out to what see what the very high altitude, very large sized climatory development factors are doing? As opposed to a storm pattern, and of course any particular storm. That’s what I’m thinking when I see a “long range” map of the Epo/MJo/AO etc…

[sroc4]

Let me begin this mornings' discussion by adding a few grains of salt right off the bat because this is a discussion about the LR after all, and we all know the LR likes to evolve away from what we thought was going to happen.  That said...  




This map is the Euro ensemble mean for the week headed into the Christmas weekend.  Mugs posted similar map yesterday but I really think it bares repeating.  




IF this look comes to fruition I would be absolutely shocked if 95% of this board didn't have a white Christmas.  I mean truly shocked.  This is about as text book of a look for a wide spread arctic outbreak and snow potential as I have seen in a really long time.  

Now please let me reiterate this.  I'm sure there are some of you reading this and rolling the eyes thinking ok here we go again.  Another overhyped post that wont even come close to the hype.  Your right.  That is probably true.  But even close to this look with the trough south of the Aleutians, the ridging into Alaska, the N Pole, and into the Greenland area will absolutely produce multiple snow opportunities into the NE.  There is NO QUESTION about that.  

Now this is nothing more than a cautiously optimistic broad brushed big picture overview of where the pattern appears to be headed, but there is a lot to be excited about.  This is not coming from this one map from this one model either.  There are multiple levels/layers of possible support for this outcome or some version of this outcome regarding the pattern.   Which part of the NE will see what and when, we don't start to hone in on those details until inside the 5-7day mark, and then in your back yard and/or mine, not until inside 1-3days, so please dont look beyond the big picture for now regarding this time frame and remember it can and will likely change as we get in closer.   

So again I will end with the proverbial grain of salt.  

[heehaw453]

Encouraging run on the GEFS 06z for a winter storm threat.  That looks ominous at the h5 as you see that Rockies ridge start to form. Hopefully we can continue to move in the right direction synoptically.

[sroc4]

Just a quick comment on next weekend's potential.  We have started to see the rumblings of a legit threat with this system.  For the first time the teles may be hinting at a well time spike into positive territory by the PNA.  If true the ability of this threat to become a reality for many of us increases tremendously.  Make no mistake though, this could still work out with out it too compliments of a -NAO/-AO/-EPO combo, but a +PNA would def increase our odds.  Should be a fun week of tracking; that's for sure.   That's all Ill say about this for now.  

[heehaw453]

06Z EPS WoW. Very strong signal by a mean for the late week threat.  That depiction is not fantasy land time frame as you can see.

Edit: Something be brewin' folks.  Pieces are there details unclear.

[sroc4]

06Z EPS WoW. Very strong signal by a mean for the late week threat.  That depiction is not fantasy land time frame as you can see.

Totally Haw.  We have the obv ridging tothe N that will force our system underneath.  But the wave spacing between our system and the ULL 50/50 low to the NE, and the ULL off the west coast will need to be watched.  If the one out west is to close on the heals of our system then we wont see a spike in the PNA domain and we will likely see a flatter W-E trajectory.  If it hangs back expect a little +PNA ridge to show up with its axis ideally somewhere around Nevada and a bit more of a digging; combined with the clogged atlantic a negative tilt and deepining system with a better storm track.  

[weatherwatchermom]

06Z EPS WoW. Very strong signal by a mean for the late week threat.  That depiction is not fantasy land time frame as you can see.

Totally Haw.  We have the obv ridging tothe N that will force our system underneath.  But the wave spacing between our system and the ULL 50/50 low to the NE, and the ULL off the west coast will need to be watched.  If the on out west is to close on the heals of our system then we wont see a spike in the PNA domain.  If it hangs back expect a little +PNA ridge to show up with its axis ideally somewhere around Nevada.  

Will up the odds supposed to travel to Boston next weekend for Xmas party..so Murphy's law..it will snow... Great explanation

[amugs]

@Jman,
Pattern recognition my man. As my pointed out and Scott so intelligently and graciously explained when u have positives and deep positives over the ENTIRE arctic region you force everything down under it cold and storms. I'm pointing out what we see happening, for sure storms are NOT cutting into a 1035 or 1040 or 1032 HP system they run into it and have to transfer to the weakness.....which is usually the braclonic zone and it's off the coast due to physics. Isn't majestic how nature works.
Buckle up because as I stated on here the last week with maps the storm track and once we have the bridge connected between the NAO and EPO regions.......WATCH OUT under neath the bridge!!

[amugs]

I see this map and drool East Coast Storm as the H5 sits over the Ohio Valley and just rotates the storms up the coast from NC region. And a blocking 50/50!! Plus a PNA spike over the SW ....

[Frank_Wx]

I am definitely excited about next week but also cautious given the H5 evolution. “Textbook” to me is when the northern and southern jet streams work in conjunction to amplify the trough and pass the upper level low to our south. This screams more Miller-B, which is fine, but will require more to go right in order for the majority on here to benefit. The EURO last night was very nice. A little disorganized, but those finer details won’t get ironed out until we get within 3 days lead time.

[billg315]

The GFS is back on board, in its own way. Still has a flatter look going into Friday but holds the energy back enough that when a ridge starts to pop in the central US a coastal storm develops in the mid-Atlantic Sunday. So you get your storm, you just have to wait a couple days.
The specifics between all the models have plenty of time to work themselves out but has to be encouraging that all of them are recognizing potential for something big whether it be the Canadian Thur into Fri; the Euro Fri into Sat; or the GFS Sunday.

[heehaw453]

Just going by guidance at 12Z. Stronger consensus on an impactful storm for Thursday night/Friday time frame. The west coast ridge will be the key IMO to whether the ULL hugs the coast/inland runner, splits the middle between benchmark and coast or is benchmark track.  The further west and weaker the west coast ridge the more chance for coastal hugger/inland runner which will bring in warm air and dramatically reduce snow. Get a decent ridge to pop over the Rockies IMO and chances go way up. But at least guidance is showing a ridge pop between the troughs. No way we have details ATTM, so it's best to look at the ensembles and not Op runs to smooth out the noise.

[heehaw453]

I want the ridge more stout and coming through the Rockies as opposed to where Euro has it depicted at 12Z. I have no idea where the ridge will form and this just informational, but a storm is coming and the ridge is the big unknown now. And since we won't have arctic air antecedent to this we need the help otherwise we get an I-81 special.

[MattyICE]

I want the ridge more stout and coming through the Rockies as opposed to where Euro has it depicted at 12Z. I have no idea where the ridge will form and this just informational, but a storm is coming and the ridge is the big unknown now. And since we won't have arctic air antecedent to this we need the help otherwise we get an I-81 special.

I feel torn on that western ridge attempting to form. On the optimistic side there’s that next powerful trough off the west coast that could nudge that emerging ridge further east into more ideal position to offer amplification benefits out our way. On the pessimistic side, we know how blocked and back up things are from the Atlantic side - which could mitigate any appreciable advancement of the western ridge further east. Currently I think I’d favor the second option, unfortunately. But obviously numerous changes will take place.

[amugs]

The storm feels the weakness between the two blocks and run into Minnesota. That will rectify I would surmise and the Synaptics of a 1040 block is going to shunt this bad boy more S & E. Also once that connection gets made the PNA then can pump. I like where we are at overall. This ain't cutting but like tomorrow's storm get shoved S and E. I have seen and read a study, I have to find it, on anomalous blocks NAO and Omega and how the models can't solve them until about 84-72 hours out. I would say the GEFS have the better idea of this storms evolution synoptically speaking. This going to be beast and the one behind it for the 22ndish time frame maybe the King Kahuna!

[heehaw453]

I want the ridge more stout and coming through the Rockies as opposed to where Euro has it depicted at 12Z. I have no idea where the ridge will form and this just informational, but a storm is coming and the ridge is the big unknown now. And since we won't have arctic air antecedent to this we need the help otherwise we get an I-81 special.

I feel torn on that western ridge attempting to form. On the optimistic side there’s that next powerful trough off the west coast that could nudge that emerging ridge further east into more ideal position to offer amplification benefits out our way. On the pessimistic side, we know how blocked and back up things are from the Atlantic side - which could mitigate any appreciable advancement of the western ridge further east. Currently I think I’d favor the second option, unfortunately. But obviously numerous changes will take place.

Yeah.  This storm will be a transfer from say Chicago to OBX. The ULL must dig and the energy must transfer quickly to avoid flooding mid-levels with warm air in our area. I just don't how much that western ridge will allow for the ULL to keep digging. Also and as important the more resistance there is in Quebec with those H's which is directly related to the blocking the faster that transfer will occur as the atmosphere wants path of least resistance. This is the critical juncture IMO and how quickly and efficiently it occurs. My gut tells me as anomalous as the AO stands the resistance may be under modelled and that transfer may start earlier than later.  Frank was pointing out that these transfers are not as straight forward as a storm that comes from the Gulf where the you don't have that complexity. All and all I think this I-81 to I-95 special as the goal posts. 

[Frank_Wx]

Hello dear friend

[Frank_Wx]

The EPS appear north of the OP. Would love to see them trend south with the H5 vort in the coming days

[Frank_Wx]

I want the ridge more stout and coming through the Rockies as opposed to where Euro has it depicted at 12Z. I have no idea where the ridge will form and this just informational, but a storm is coming and the ridge is the big unknown now. And since we won't have arctic air antecedent to this we need the help otherwise we get an I-81 special.

I feel torn on that western ridge attempting to form. On the optimistic side there’s that next powerful trough off the west coast that could nudge that emerging ridge further east into more ideal position to offer amplification benefits out our way. On the pessimistic side, we know how blocked and back up things are from the Atlantic side - which could mitigate any appreciable advancement of the western ridge further east. Currently I think I’d favor the second option, unfortunately. But obviously numerous changes will take place.

Yeah.  This storm will be a transfer from say Chicago to OBX. The ULL must dig and the energy must transfer quickly to avoid flooding mid-levels with warm air in our area. I just don't how much that western ridge will allow for the ULL to keep digging. Also and as important the more resistance there is in Quebec with those H's which is directly related to the blocking the faster that transfer will occur as the atmosphere wants path of least resistance. This is the critical juncture IMO and how quickly and efficiently it occurs. My gut tells me as anomalous as the AO stands the resistance may be under modelled and that transfer may start earlier than later.  Frank was pointing out that these transfers are not as straight forward as a storm that comes from the Gulf where the you don't have that complexity. All and all I think this I-81 to I-95 special as the goal posts. 

Good posts…we are in wait and see mode. If we had the MJO I would be MUCH more excited about the ridge. But we do not so we’re left with luck/timing.

[heehaw453]

The storm feels the weakness between the two blocks and run into Minnesota. That will rectify I would surmise and the Synaptics of a 1040 block is going to shunt this bad boy more S & E. Also once that connection gets made the PNA then can pump. I like where we are at overall. This ain't cutting but like tomorrow's storm get shoved S and E. I have seen and read a study, I have to find it, on anomalous blocks NAO and Omega and how the models can't solve them until about 84-72 hours out. I would say the GEFS have the better idea of this storms evolution synoptically speaking.  This going to be beast and the one behind it for the 22ndish time frame maybe the King Kahuna!

This demonstrates exactly what you were pointing out Mugs.  This transferred and kept the mid-level circulation offshore and not inland due to the resistance. So even w/out a powerful storm we can get a big hit as the Atlantic is plugged up. There are paths to a win here, not just thread needle.

[Frank_Wx]

Looks like we took a step backwards overnight. It’s important for the ridge to amplify. It seems overnight modeling kept energy back in the SW and that prevented the ride from developing.

[heehaw453]

Looks like we took a step backwards overnight. It’s important for the ridge to amplify. It seems overnight modeling kept energy back in the SW and that prevented the ride from developing.

Yeah, there's a ridge, but I think the ULL is amplifying too soon due to a piece dropping into it.  This shown piece that drops into it is pulling it up against the block and this piece comes from the Northwest Territories.  That's one way that a storm can push back on the block.  If this is right then this is probably a CNE snow storm as the transfer will be delayed and then warm air is flooding mid-levels. If that piece acts a steering agent though, then it might work out.  I'm erring on the side of caution on this system.  I think the farther interior can see some snow from this, but very suspect on any sig accumulations for more immediate area right now. This just might not be the one...

[Irish]

Looks like we took a step backwards overnight. It’s important for the ridge to amplify. It seems overnight modeling kept energy back in the SW and that prevented the ride from developing.

Yeah, there's a ridge, but I think the ULL is amplifying too soon due to a piece dropping into it.  This shown piece that drops into it is pulling it up against the block and this piece comes from the Northwest Territories.  That's one way that a storm can push back on the block.  If this is right then this is probably a CNE snow storm as the transfer will be delayed and then warm air is flooding mid-levels. If that piece acts a steering agent though, then it might work out.  I'm erring on the side of caution on this system.  I think the farther interior can see some snow from this, but very suspect on any sig accumulations for more immediate area right now. This just might not be the one...

Not being negative here, they rarely are the one. For me, the joy, this time of year, is in the hunt for a White December! They are elusive, but boy do I enjoy the tracking, even if it fails to come to fruition.

[SENJsnowman]

[/quote] Not being negative here, they rarely are the one. For me, the joy, this time of year, is in the hunt for a White December!  They are elusive, but boy do I enjoy the tracking, even if it fails to come to fruition. [/quote]

Well said, Irish! Those are my thoughts/feelings on the matter word for word.

[amugs]

GFS OP wil come around to whatis happening today - I do not look at this OP model until...it shsows a bomb LOL!! GESF are onto to this:
Sharper Ridge out west, jet streak much further so the Surface LP is around where the x marks the spot..benchmark, 50/50 LP and NAO block and AO. If you want to see a snowstorm along I95 this is what you want as your set up. The oprational should catch up to this idea.
My thoughts are not wavering on this nor the pattern thorugh until the 1st week of January before we relax it. Models are to quick to break it down IMO. Jan thaw then a fierce reload that may last through midish March even early April. Time will tell with all.

[Sponsored content]