Re: Long Range Thread 25.0

[frank 638]

Icky looks like this is going to be one heck of a storm for us but sadly not white. Cmc has 4 to 6 inches rain and 60mph plus wind gusts. I hope it just pulls so far west we miss it completely. I don't think we have anything to hold onto the gfs is terrible and won't win out. I really am getting too old for this cat snd mouse weather stuff, it just doesn't go our way too often. Rant over.

same here first they said snow for Thursday and Friday now rain on Friday with a high of 50 I am sick and tired of this every time they say snow has to be a process

[hyde345]

Once models start showing a cutter, especially one that goes into the Great Lakes, it's over. They lock on to that like a pitbull on a poodle. I had high hopes for white Christmas but that seems unlikely.

[jmanley32]

Icky looks like this is going to be one heck of a storm for us but sadly not white. Cmc has 4 to 6 inches rain and 60mph plus wind gusts. I hope it just pulls so far west we miss it completely. I don't think we have anything to hold onto the gfs is terrible and won't win out. I really am getting too old for this cat snd mouse weather stuff, it just doesn't go our way too often. Rant over.

same here first they said snow for Thursday and Friday now rain on Friday with a high of 50 I am sick and tired of this every time they say snow has to be a process

maybe I'll start doing what my mom used to say. Quit watching twc (when it was decent in the 90s) you will know the weather when you look outside and say oh it's snowing! Blind excitement, might work.

[jmanley32]

Once models start showing a cutter, especially one that goes into the Great Lakes, it's over. They lock on to that like a pitbull on a poodle. I had high hopes for white Christmas but that seems unlikely.

I never got my hopes up . Did I want it ya, did I think it could rally happen nah.

[amugs]

TWC and pro mets NYC  Jinxed this as usual. Once a cutter RARELY do is revert or change. This is rough and I know I know I talked big about the pattern as did others and it frustrating.
Maybe something after Xmas? Watch it snow in our "warm up" period around Jan 1.
Anyhow, done tracking this. Once I saw the Euro latch on and EPS I knew we were in trouble. Need some miracle to move this 1000 miles east.
LR modeling is such mislead info at times. To say you knew this before at, this juncture I want to hear your thoughts and meteoogical explanations.

I do not follow thr LR GFS due again to since it upgraded its been horrible beyond 4 days. Heck even 3. Enjoy the weekend.

[heehaw453]

This is northern stream dominant system.  There's not a fetch from the subtropical jet for the moisture transport.  I'm hoping it can dry slot the area and spare of floods.  Looks to get NE harder with Atlantic fetch, but some areas may get spared the deluge.

[phil155]

TWC and pro mets NYC  Jinxed this as usual. Once a cutter RARELY do is revert or change. This is rough and I know I know I talked big about the pattern as did others and it frustrating.
Maybe something after Xmas? Watch it snow in our "warm up" period around Jan 1.
Anyhow, done tracking this. Once I saw the Euro latch on and EPS I knew we were in trouble. Need some miracle to move this 1000 miles east.
LR modeling is such mislead info at times. To say you knew this before at, this juncture I want to hear your thoughts and meteoogical explanations.

I do not follow thr LR GFS due again to since it upgraded its been horrible beyond 4 days. Heck even 3. Enjoy the weekend.

I definitely feels like in terms of snow and getting a good storm that it feels like we are jinxed. The models give us hope, and they show a great solution for several runs and then it turns it into a cutter and our snowstorm turns into a rainy day. Winters in this area especially along the i95 have been let down after let down the past couple years

[hyde345]

It still amazes me that most of us are going to have another green Christmas once again. It shouldn't be so hard especially in the HV. I have an inch or 2 of snow cover still but after 2-3 inches of rain and temps in the 50's later this week that should be gone. Just a few days ago it looked like a good bet. Sucks.

[jmanley32]

This is northern stream dominant system.  There's not a fetch from the subtropical jet for the moisture transport.  I'm hoping it can dry slot the area and spare of floods.  Looks to get NE harder with Atlantic fetch, but some areas may get spared the deluge.

it looks like the precip will be heavy and looking at 850mb winds it looks like that could be a concern no? Cmc has 90+ kt 850s moving over area. Last thing we need is power outages few days b4 xmas. No one get upset I'm just trying to find out what we might expect now. I'm majorly bummed that's not go b big snowstorm. But it looks could be quite impactful in a dismal.way. on top that my daughter has type A flu and is very sick. 3 yrs in a row holidays have sucked on so many levels. I wish I had something cheery to say I really do. As for the LR I'm not listening to any of it. Seems 90% time it's wrong. You guys put so much work into it only to be let down.

[heehaw453]

This is northern stream dominant system.  There's not a fetch from the subtropical jet for the moisture transport.  I'm hoping it can dry slot the area and spare of floods.  Looks to get NE harder with Atlantic fetch, but some areas may get spared the deluge.

it looks like the precip will be heavy and looking at 850mb winds it looks like that could be a concern no? Cmc has 90+ kt 850s moving over area. Last thing we need is power outages few days b4 xmas. No one get upset I'm just trying to find out what we might expect now. I'm majorly bummed that's not go b big snowstorm. But it looks could be quite impactful in a dismal.way. on top that my daughter has type A flu and is very sick. 3 yrs in a row holidays have sucked on so many levels. I wish I had something cheery to say I really do. As for the LR I'm not listening to any of it. Seems 90% time it's wrong. You guys put so much work into it only to be let down.

Hope your daughter feels better soon.

There's disappointment for sure, but personally it's about learning and getting a better appreciation for how this stuff all works. You hit a certain level of experience with tracking and you know most things won't work out especially at this locale.  It's when they fall apart at D3 that it stings more.  No sweat with this one other than it won't be a white Christmas.

As for the wind I expect it to me impactful if this storm deepens to our west as progged.  We will have a pressure gradient and that will exacerbate the wind.

[heehaw453]

It still amazes me that most of us are going to have another green Christmas once again. It shouldn't be so hard especially in the HV. I have an inch or 2 of snow cover still but after 2-3 inches of rain and temps in the 50's later this week that should be gone. Just a few days ago it looked like a good bet. Sucks.

I believe in the past 150 years of record keeping there hasn't been a span of 13 consecutive non white Christmas's in NYC.  Somebody keep me honest, but this will be the longest span if NYC fails to do so.  Looking good to do so.

[jmanley32]

It still amazes me that most of us are going to have another green Christmas once again. It shouldn't be so hard especially in the HV. I have an inch or 2 of snow cover still but after 2-3 inches of rain and temps in the 50's later this week that should be gone. Just a few days ago it looked like a good bet. Sucks.

I believe in the past 150 years of record keeping there hasn't been a span of 13 consecutive non white Christmas's in NYC.  Somebody keep me honest, but this will be the longest span if NYC fails to do so.  Looking good to do so.

seems longer than that but wow I was 28 jeeze.

[mmanisca]

Looks like another year of dominating western and midwestern troughs

[Irish]

It still amazes me that most of us are going to have another green Christmas once again. It shouldn't be so hard especially in the HV. I have an inch or 2 of snow cover still but after 2-3 inches of rain and temps in the 50's later this week that should be gone. Just a few days ago it looked like a good bet. Sucks.

I believe in the past 150 years of record keeping there hasn't been a span of 13 consecutive non white Christmas's in NYC.  Somebody keep me honest, but this will be the longest span if NYC fails to do so.  Looking good to do so.

Damn Global Warming!

[amugs]

It still amazes me that most of us are going to have another green Christmas once again. It shouldn't be so hard especially in the HV. I have an inch or 2 of snow cover still but after 2-3 inches of rain and temps in the 50's later this week that should be gone. Just a few days ago it looked like a good bet. Sucks.

I believe in the past 150 years of record keeping there hasn't been a span of 13 consecutive non white Christmas's in NYC.  Somebody keep me honest, but this will be the longest span if NYC fails to do so.  Looking good to do so.

Damn Global Warming!

Yeah as a massive unprecedented arctic plunge hit drom Manitoba to the Gulf coast. IMBY doesn't lean the grand scale of climate.

Anyway, the energy pieces are in very sparse data collection areas as indicated by the 2 blackish circles. One is in no man's land of the Arctic and the other out in the PAC. Still changes can come. Wait until 12 Z Monday I'd say.

[docstox12]

Looks like another year of dominating western and midwestern troughs

Saw this starting Nov 1 out there.Time after time the NWS CONUS map popped up, I saw pink and red in the Central, North Central and NW Central areas.
62 years of observing winter weather in this area has showed me once these patterns set up, it is very difficult to change them.Hope ours can do so to get out of this miserable cutter pattern.

[mmanisca]

Looks like another year of dominating western and midwestern troughs

Saw this starting Nov 1 out there.Time after time the NWS CONUS map popped up, I saw pink and red in the Central, North Central and NW Central areas.
62 years of observing winter weather in this area has showed me once these patterns set up, it is very difficult to change them.Hope ours can do so to get out of this miserable cutter pattern.

Yep agreed 100%. Is looking like the cold will even be short lived. Just ugly..

[Radz]

Yes it’s disappointing to have such a dynamic storm cut, but trying to look on the bright side, hopefully we can get some backside snow to whiten the ground as the Arctic air rushes in, and plenty of winter left for the pattern to reshuffle a bit.

[docstox12]

Looks like another year of dominating western and midwestern troughs

Saw this starting Nov 1 out there.Time after time the NWS CONUS map popped up, I saw pink and red in the Central, North Central and NW Central areas.
62 years of observing winter weather in this area has showed me once these patterns set up, it is very difficult to change them.Hope ours can do so to get out of this miserable cutter pattern.

Yep agreed 100%. Is looking like the cold will even be short lived. Just ugly..

Patterns can change even if they are set for a while.Mentioned on a prior post when Frank, at a gathering of our group many years ago, pointed to one he thought would change, and about a month later, in late January, it did big time.Still not even winter on the calender yet, lots of snow time to go.

[docstox12]

Yes it’s disappointing to have such a dynamic storm cut, but trying to look on the bright side, hopefully we can get some backside snow to whiten the ground as the Arctic air rushes in, and plenty of winter left for the pattern to reshuffle a bit.

Like that thought and we up in the northern areas may see the ground whiten up again.

[Frank_Wx]

Does not look good…we’re going to be awhile before we can get excited about winter weather again

[Frank_Wx]

This is a nice look around Christmas



IDEALLY you want to see the ridge axis further east. Unfortunately the tropical pacific is pretty devoid of wave activity (blame La Nina), so the likelihood of getting an ideal-place ridge is kinda slim. Nevertheless, the PNA is west-based and the EPO is also negative.

It is not a perfect pattern by any means, but one that will bring the cold and ample chances for snow. Hopefully we can cash in on at least one wave.

I posted this last week. The time frame just before Christmas to New Years once looked promising. Today it does not. The biggest difference is the EPO. A dramatic shift in modeling to bring it from a negative to positive. This keeps the cold air west of us despite the NAO still showing up negative. We may have gotten a little too excited. Sometimes it’s easy to forget we’re in our 4th straight La Niña season, the Stratosphere PV is strong, and our MJO is dormant.

[Dunnzoo]

Does not look good…we’re going to be awhile before we can get excited about winter weather again

Sorry to say, I'll take it. Too much to do between the holidays and mid-January. Need to get to Florida 1/14 to do some real estate shopping. I don't get too excited for December snow in our area much anymore, I'll take a nice cold and snowy January to March though!

[heehaw453]

What will wind up happening is what usually happens Mother Nature will slip in a well timed short wave when the pattern looks to be unfavorable and we'll on the board with renewed energy.

[MattyICE]

What will wind up happening is what usually happens Mother Nature will slip in a well timed short wave when the pattern looks to be unfavorable and we'll on the board with renewed energy.

Agree. I got too excited in long range potential when it looked good. For me, the lesson is to not get equally DOWN now that the long range looks crappy. Could the rest of the winter bust? I suppose but highly unlikely. I think we enjoy the holidays. Reset. Stay patient. Stop looking so far down the road, whatever it shows. If we can do that, I agree, we can get something modest in the short range to brighten things up.

[Zhukov1945]

What will wind up happening is what usually happens Mother Nature will slip in a well timed short wave when the pattern looks to be unfavorable and we'll on the board with renewed energy.

Agree. I got too excited in long range potential when it looked good. For me, the lesson is to not get equally DOWN now that the long range looks crappy. Could the rest of the winter bust? I suppose but highly unlikely. I think we enjoy the holidays. Reset. Stay patient. Stop looking so far down the road, whatever it shows. If we can do that, I agree, we can get something modest in the short range to brighten things up.

I mean, isn't late Jan through March really when we get most of our snow anyway? Seems like quite a few seasons have been busts up until Feb...I hate operating via anecdote and couldn't statistically prove it, but I never really lose hope until we get into there and nothing on the horizon.

[MattyICE]

What will wind up happening is what usually happens Mother Nature will slip in a well timed short wave when the pattern looks to be unfavorable and we'll on the board with renewed energy.

Agree. I got too excited in long range potential when it looked good. For me, the lesson is to not get equally DOWN now that the long range looks crappy. Could the rest of the winter bust? I suppose but highly unlikely. I think we enjoy the holidays. Reset. Stay patient. Stop looking so far down the road, whatever it shows. If we can do that, I agree, we can get something modest in the short range to brighten things up.

I mean, isn't late Jan through March really when we get most of our snow anyway?  Seems like quite a few seasons have been busts up until Feb...I hate operating via anecdote and couldn't statistically prove it, but I never really lose hope until we get into there and nothing on the horizon.

Sure, especially in the last several years March has become on average a more “wintery” month than December in many locations - my point is more to not get too down if the long range looks unfavorable. Since long range favorability didn’t work out, I have little reason to believe unfavorable looks will either.

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