Re: Long Range Thread 25.0

[heehaw453]

18Z EPS and i continue to like this at D5. Where does this baroclinic zone setup? We don't have a strong low attacking the cold here on rising EC heights.  You got a wave moving along the baroclinic zone with all layers of the column cold and compressed heights keeping it from cutting. Need to see tomorrow continued positive trends before I get invested in this one, but it's interesting at D5.

[Coachgriff]

Not sure what happened overnight but it looks like the storm stays west…upstate NY should see something from this one.

[heehaw453]

How much suppression occurs with the dipping TPV is going to be the risk.  But some folks between Richmond and NYC are probably going to get sig snow in first week of February.  It may be DC south kind of thing so we just have to see how much the TPV wants to push down.

[Coachgriff]

How accurate are the forecast models at predicting the impact of the TPV? The maps I have access to show cold temps Thursday, Friday, and Saturday then temps move back into the mid to upper 40’s…is that purely conjecture or is there some certainty in the projections?

[heehaw453]

How accurate are the forecast models at predicting the impact of the TPV?  The maps I have access to show cold temps Thursday, Friday, and Saturday then temps move back into the mid to upper 40’s…is that purely conjecture or is there some certainty in the projections?

Models will struggle with TPV placement. It's extremely fickle but if sets up right and allows enough room for waves, then we will do much better in February than the January nightmare we've experienced.


Need to keep seeing positive trends, but this mean is not bad at D5 on the EPS.

[Irish]

Looks like cold and dry coming up next week, followed by back to the mid 40s and wet after that. Sweet! That'll put us halfway through February. When is the first day of Spring?

[heehaw453]

Looks like cold and dry coming up next week, followed by back to the mid 40s and wet after that. Sweet!  That'll put us halfway through February. When is the first day of Spring?

Definitely model ensembles have kept the waves weak and south of the area.  The way the winter has gone this makes perfect sense as cold air gets to the coast.

[phil155]

May have to put a fork in this winter at least in terms of a serious snow fall. Not saying a minor event or 2 is impossible but it looks like it is becoming less likely by the day. Figures this happens this year as I had my driveway paved over the summer in large part to make shoveling easier

[toople]

May have to put a fork in this winter at least in terms of a serious snow fall. Not saying a minor event or 2 is impossible but it looks like it is becoming less likely by the day. Figures this happens this year as I had my driveway paved over the summer in large part to make shoveling easier

I feel like preparing for winter, in months in advance, is bad luck.

[Irish]

May have to put a fork in this winter at least in terms of a serious snow fall. Not saying a minor event or 2 is impossible but it looks like it is becoming less likely by the day. Figures this happens this year as I had my driveway paved over the summer in large part to make shoveling easier

Yeah, especially for our area. The longer we go without snow, the sun angle changes and the likelihood of getting a big snow that sticks around is less and less likely. I love getting January (even if late Jan.) Into February snows. If it becomes late February into March, I'll be mailing it in personally, as I start thinking about garden setup, backyard cleanup, etc.

We'll see...

[Radz]

Euro says wear your woolies next Saturday morning lol

[CPcantmeasuresnow]

Looks like cold and dry coming up next week, followed by back to the mid 40s and wet after that. Sweet!  That'll put us halfway through February. When is the first day of Spring?

This year spring arrived on December 1st and runs until June 21st this year.

[Grselig]

Looks like cold and dry coming up next week, followed by back to the mid 40s and wet after that. Sweet!  That'll put us halfway through February. When is the first day of Spring?

This year spring arrived on December 1st and runs until June 21st this year.

Things always balance out. Not always in a good way. Could be a short cold summer

[heehaw453]

We talked about the TPV at length.  It will drop and slide SE into Quebec.  Expect much colder weather starting Wednesday and by Friday going to feel like winter.  Unfortunately with that moisture will be suppressed and none of the waves up to 2/5 will give us snow. But at least ski resorts can blow some snow with solid cold and that's to my liking.

Snow dearth will continue until at least end of next weekend. 

[heehaw453]

Based on ensemble guidance I feel moisture suppression, but Canadian suite gives our Jersey Coast friends some love.  Hopefully it's right albeit a bit out of it's range.

[CPcantmeasuresnow]

Maybe it’s time to shutdown the long range thread in an act of desperation to change our fortunes?
Possibly a name change to “Fantasy snow that never materializes”

[phil155]

Maybe it’s time to shutdown the long range thread in an act of desperation to change our fortunes?
Possibly a name change to “Fantasy snow that never materializes”

Worth a shot, maybe temporarily name it the winter that never was

[Grselig]

Maybe it’s time to shutdown the long range thread in an act of desperation to change our fortunes?
Possibly a name change to “Fantasy snow that never materializes”

Worth a shot, maybe temporarily name it the winter that never was

Well worth it. Maybe throw in “summer of Eternity “. Put up an image if the Beach Boys.
Tough times. Beyond desperation.

[heehaw453]

We've been talking about the TPV and the waves of low pressure forming on baroclinic zone. Thursday night would be another time to watch.  As I've said it will depend on how much space the TPV provides the energy. If it's further away then this will be a shot for snow especially I95 and points SE.

Rule of thumb especially this winter is to expect nada.  Just something to be aware of.

[Frank_Wx]

The 18z GFS completely displaced the Strat PV off the pole. If that came to fruition, it would mean a pretty epic February.

Based off some research…I think N&W of NYC is going to see one heck of a snowy February. That’s not to say the coast will not see snow - they will at some point - but we’re seeing indications of a potent Pacific wave similar (but stronger) to the one we saw back in December. This will completely dismantle the Strat PV (SSWE). The first development will be a -EPO ridge that eventually becomes a -WPO ridge. Next will be a -NAO, but I’m thinking more east-based. Normally this type of 500mb setup favors N&W. That said, there will be arctic cold across the northern US and it won’t take much for that to bleed southeast. Mondays storm will likely cut west and send the cold air to the coast, setting us up for Wednesday. I think that’s the only way the coast can win right now (addition by subtraction)

Based off of these posts that I made a couple of weeks ago, there was clearly a lot of promise in the long range pattern that had me excited for February. To a certain extent we are going to see the pattern change a little bit. Check out what the 5-day average temp anomalies look like over the next 10 days. We will enter a stretch of slightly below to below normal temps starting tomorrow.




However, although we will have the cold air there are other issues with our pattern. For one, the Stratospheric warming is temporary. We needed a warming strong enough for a permanent displacement of the PV. That is not going to happen. Secondly, the MJO has been living in unfavorable phases. The super La Niña has directly impacted the behavior of the MJO this year. There’s signs of La Niña weakening but unfortunately it’s too little too late for us.



So the -EPO ridge will become the -WPO ridge as predicted, but it will be transient which means the cold air will be short lived. And unfortunately without the backing of the NAO, the SE ridge will have opportunities to flex as storm tracks will primarily stay west of us. There is a very high chance NYC continues this snow drought through the middle of February.

[weatherwatchermom]

The 18z GFS completely displaced the Strat PV off the pole. If that came to fruition, it would mean a pretty epic February.

Based off some research…I think N&W of NYC is going to see one heck of a snowy February. That’s not to say the coast will not see snow - they will at some point - but we’re seeing indications of a potent Pacific wave similar (but stronger) to the one we saw back in December. This will completely dismantle the Strat PV (SSWE). The first development will be a -EPO ridge that eventually becomes a -WPO ridge. Next will be a -NAO, but I’m thinking more east-based. Normally this type of 500mb setup favors N&W. That said, there will be arctic cold across the northern US and it won’t take much for that to bleed southeast. Mondays storm will likely cut west and send the cold air to the coast, setting us up for Wednesday. I think that’s the only way the coast can win right now (addition by subtraction)

Based off of these posts that I made a couple of weeks ago, there was clearly a lot of promise in the long range pattern that had me excited for February. To a certain extent we are going to see the pattern change a little bit. Check out what the 5-day average temp anomalies look like over the next 10 days. We will enter a stretch of slightly below to below normal temps starting tomorrow.




However, although we will have the cold air there are other issues with our pattern. For one, the Stratospheric warming is temporary. We needed a warming strong enough for a permanent displacement of the PV. That is not going to happen. Secondly, the MJO has been living in unfavorable phases. The super La Niña has directly impacted the behavior of the MJO this year. There’s signs of La Niña weakening but unfortunately it’s too little too late for us.



So the -EPO ridge will become the -WPO ridge as predicted, but it will be transient which means the cold air will be short lived. And unfortunately without the backing of the NAO, the SE ridge will have opportunities to flex as storm tracks will primarily stay west of us. There is a very high chance NYC continues this snow drought through the middle of February.

Thank you for posting and updating on this horrible winter....I will give a long range prediction..we are going to have a Blizzard DC to NY on Feb 24th...wanna know why??..my son's AP Gov class has a trip to DC that day. came home with permission slip today....you watch..we  will have a blizzard! lol

[amugs]

Holy Cold!!!

[phil155]

Holy Cold!!!

Without snow on the ground that is very cold

[Frozen.9]

Next week the 7th/8th looks like in the 50's for NYC...gotta laugh.

[Coachgriff]

Discussing snow has become futile…but the temp swings are very interesting this winter…30/9 for Friday…27/20 on Saturday….then 50 on Sunday! With the exception of those 5 days around Christmas the cold has really struggled to push its way southeast and hold its ground. I am also intrigued by the connection between our temps and precipitation…during the summer when the heat rolled in we were dry…any cold air this winter and the moisture stays west of us…when the temps moderated in both summer and winter the precipitation is pretty relentless. At 43yrs old and a life long resident of central NJ I cannot remember the weather being this out of sorts.

[Coachgriff]

I don’t buy temp predictions two weeks down the road….but….nearly 60 for Valentine’s Day….wild!

[phil155]

I don’t buy temp predictions two weeks down the road….but….nearly 60 for Valentine’s Day….wild!

If it is going to be that warm I will be bbqing for valentines day

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