Re: Long Range Thread 25.0

[amugs]

"Houston,...The Eagle has landed." Well maybe not the distance from the earth to the moon but the GFS is predicting that impacts from #PolarVortex disruption currently at 70,000 feet in the atmosphere will reach the surface in two weeks. Blog goes public with update later today. pic.twitter.com/UmEUfMizKq

— Judah Cohen (@judah47) February 15, 2023

End of February and 1st weesk of March we can see these effects - how much remains to be seen. It tries to recover but can't and may take us through April with these effects if it does stabilize and then get destroyed.

[amugs]

If this does occur with a retrograding SER into the GOM it allows the TPV to drop down as indicated in this map, could spell some interesting times for wintry possibilities.

[amugs]

Jim Witt storm timeframe Feb 25th then again March 3-5th

[CPcantmeasuresnow]

And unfortunately what I said about the “threat” on the 23rd is following the December script. Looks like some slop in the north and west netting to zero and a nice cold rain for the coastal plain.

I’m sure the next threat, even the term makes me laugh uncontrollable now, will eventually follow the same path.

At this point and I’m serious, you can take any March through April pattern changes and stick em where the sun don’t shine.

In 1972-1973 at least we were still ice skating and where I live there was snow on the ground for two or three weeks these temperatures are nuts. And actually very concerning ecologically for plants that will bloom way early if this keeps up.

[sroc4]

Just a very broad stroked comment here.  First inside 10-12 days means nothing to me.  Bill this is not a knock on you at all.  This winter in particular inside 3-5days is when we can take this seriously.  That said there are a few things going on right now that might, and I stressed might, allow for a different outcome in the time frame between the 22nd-March 1st.  The possibility of different forcing mechanisms to the atmosphere at play here is a real thing.

That is all

Sooooooooo.........

2 more of my cents here.  When looking at the forcing mechanisms Im not sure I am seeing the change necessary to "make a difference" with respect to outcome.  Two things:

First: The SOI.  https://www.longpaddock.qld.gov.au/soi/
For awhile, maybe on the order of 3 weeks, we have a legit change on the trop Pac trade winds where the daily values were coming in at single digits and negative values such that you can see by the red line(30day running avg) had steadily decreased.  However; notice that for about the last 10days or so that red line has steadily increased yet again.  

To spell it out more simply with the SOI finally going towards neutral, should it have remained there, would have meant the background state of the La Nina, which tends to promote the SE ridge(bad), would have been less influential should other drivers become more favorable.  Unfort for us for at least the last month the Strat polar Vortex had strengthened and shifted to the wrong side of the N Hemisphere(bad), and the MJO(prob strongest influence to our pattern over the last month) was making a mod strong run through the warmest of the phases(phases 3-4-5-6-7).  



Second:  The MJO which I touched upon above.  As mentioned it took a tour through all the warm phases; the result of which has been this exceptionally warm and snowless pattern.  Of course this was combined with the background state of La Nina.  They aligned to make it "extra special".  Now a couple of few days ago the MJO forecasts decided to "tickle" us in some fun places lending us to believe that It may make it out into phase 8 which is def a cold phase.  


The result of this has been what we have seen on the models in that long range.  The idea of a storm track that may lead to some actual wintery precip for the area.  Problem is MJO forecasts are shifting yet again.  Buuuuuuttttt..................The signal into the colder phases is trending weaker and weaker, and the GFS is even suggesting that we head back out into 6 again which is as warm as it gets.  The euro and if you look at the extended forecasts f the euro and a few of the others want it to collapse into the center before re-emerging back out and making a run in some of the colder phases ie: 8-1-2 perhaps.  Needless to say at the moment  I am not buying any of that until I see it.  




As we have seen so often as we head in tighter we see our forecasts try to fall back into what has been relatively well established pattern.  The La Nina is def weakening as seen by some of the changes in the SST in the trop Pac; however, the pas 10 days of SOI data suggests that its influence on he background state still isnt quite ready to let go.  So while there may be a touch of MJO forcing, even if its a short window, into more favorable phases I worry that the back ground state of the Nina will still lead to storm tracks the want to be too far west.  Undermodeled energy in the LR that trends stronger as we get closer.  The stronger energy to our west raises the heights out infront because the Nina back ground state promotes it.  If the MJO influences and the shift in the strat forcings arent potent enough we once again do not overcome the slop for the interior and higher elevations and cold wet rain for the coast scenario.  Yup it will be colder than it is now, but who cares.

[heehaw453]

One week away it's a bit too soon to write off the 2/23 for those NW of I95.  I don't like the PNA but if the resistance is strong enough it could affect the baroclinic zone by a few hundred miles at this lead time and that would make a big difference with snow potential.

[billg315]

*sigh* The little signals are not looking positive. To paraphrase from Beverly Hills Cop, I'm at risk of falling for the banana in the tailpipe yet again.

[amugs]

We have reached SSWE status. Now what this wil translate too is anyones guess but this is the last straw IMO peeps.

Next year with an El Nino coming in should be better.

[heehaw453]

IMO it's very unlikely we get a lot of help from the PAC the rest of the way.  If there is any possibility it's coming with Atlantic help. As has been said many times nothing can be too hostile, otherwise it'll dramatically cap the opportunities. This season is most likely not going to produce anything sig for most.  It'll be a car topper (coastal plain) to perhaps moderate (NW), but sig IMO ain't occurring. Look at it this way this is as bad as it gets so next year will probably be much better.

[CPcantmeasuresnow]

Even though March on average around the NYC area averages about the same amount of snow as December let’s be real they are two different things entirely. The extremely low sun angle in December and the on average colder temperatures make the likelihood of it sticking around much higher.

I’ll never say no to a significant snowfall in any month but after three months of the worst winter possible, at least I hope so anything worse than this would be Myrtle Beach’s winter, anything at this point is more of a middle finger from Mother Nature than a blessing.

[heehaw453]

2/22-2/25 is very unlikely to give anyone a shot at snow.  The last few days of February it comes down to how much east back HL blocking can pinch the trough underneath.  This is a car topper (coastal plain) to perhaps moderate opportunity (NW I95) as the PAC isn't going to allow for anything beyond that. In a few days I'll be watching to see how this looks, but the window is 2/26-2/28 until it's not of course. If the blocking is less stout then instead of snow opportunities will be looking at 50's to close out February.

[jmanley32]

The snow maps for around the end of the month yesterday and today range from 0 to 50 inches lol, i know likely the 0 will be the case.

[CPcantmeasuresnow]

The snow maps for around the end of the month yesterday and today range from 0 to 50 inches lol, i know likely the 0 will be the case.

I saw that. The 40-50 inches was centered around NW NJ and southeast NY, with 0 over Boston.

Long range maps most years are useless. This year they are absolutely positively useless.

[jmanley32]

The snow maps for around the end of the month yesterday and today range from 0 to 50 inches lol, i know likely the 0 will be the case.

I saw that. The 40-50 inches was centered around NW NJ and southeast NY, with 0 over Boston.

Long range maps most years are useless. This year they are absolutely positively useless.

Ya not even a fantasy map, gave me 0 excitement. On my years here I have learned more and more that these LR massive snow dumps never happen. And sorry but if there is a storm of that magnitude you can keep it, I in no way want 4 ft snow 1st week march.

[heehaw453]

The GEFS is very aggressive with the 50/50 wave break getting pinned by blocking.  That's what's going to be needed to prevent a cutter for the 2/25-26 time frame and allow the cold air press. You can see the NAO start to dip around the 25th. It's not a matter of the magnitude of the dip it's a matter of alignment of the block with the trough. We have seen where misaligned blocking gets us in December. Regardless no one should think more than minor event until there is PAC help which hopefully comes shortly thereafter in early March.

[Irish]

I can't even believe that we're at this point, heading into March with absolutely nothing to speak of to this point, hoping we get some help to salvage an awful winter.

[heehaw453]

I want to believe the 18Z GFS for the last 3 days of February.  I want to believe in snow again.

[CPcantmeasuresnow]

I can't even believe that we're at this point, heading into March with absolutely nothing to speak of to this point, hoping we get some help to salvage an awful winter.

I don’t think anything at this point can salvage this mess.

Once December January and February are written off and this historically bad, it would take a historic March like 1888 to even get this Winter to a D+.

[CPcantmeasuresnow]

I want to believe the 18Z GFS for the last 3 days of February.  I want to believe in snow again.

Good Lord man snap out of it. Hit yourself in the head, throw a bucket of cold water over yourself, but don't let that model take you down the path to Hell again. You know it will be showing 46 with a wind swept rain for month end by Presidents Day.

[heehaw453]

Too funny CP.  I am hard headed and this will find a way to fail.  On the GEFS you can see the 50/50 cyclonic wave split and that is the key.  How far down does it push as the s/w approaches?  This split is instigated by the HL blocking via the retrograding Scandinavian Ridge.  This has a hard ceiling due to lack of PAC support so I think expectations should be set for a minor event if it does work out.

[sroc4]

Normally this would belong in the banter thread but there always exceptions to every rule. When looking at the LR transition to the SR just listen to the lyrics and breathe deep and slow.

[heehaw453]

I'm not calling it a winter just.  Think this Saturday a lot of the area is inline for a minor snowfall.  Blocking with a weakened TPV underneath it causes a wave break that bolsters resistance and allows troughs to flow underneath.  Beyond that into March I do believe sig blocking will develop, but that may lead to December's mess of HL blocking linking up with the SER.  This is all made possible by our hostile PAC that refuses to change its orientation of the waves.  If that happens then I will refer to the below, ensure all the futility records are given their due respect in the Stats thread and like Frosty be back next season.

[Grselig]

Normally this would belong in the banter thread but there always exceptions to every rule. When looking at the LR transition to the SR just listen to the lyrics and breathe deep and slow.

I know its banter. But truly wise words. Hug the family. Enjoy what we have. Love them Wilbuys'. Still nice to have Lynn and Dylan around!

[heehaw453]

I have my doubts on how strong this SER is going to be.  I think models are going to adjust.  That trough in the 50/50 with the blocking above is usually a good sign for snow in these parts it's been consistently modelled. Coupled with a good antecedent air mass.  It's the PNA that is concerning, but all it will take is the trough a bit further east which will make a huge difference in how the SER flexes. The jury is still out on this one.

[heehaw453]

Another tick lower on the SER flex. Just don't see avocado height flattening like this being conducive to an exploding SER. We shall see.

[CPcantmeasuresnow]

I can add nothing to the scientific analysis that Heehaw and Sroc bring to these setups so all I can add is this.

In keeping with my limited knowledge and the trusty weather app, and the last threat on the 23rd having morphed into the usual mild rainy event with highs in the upper 40’s let’s move on to the 25th.

Right now I’m forecast for a high of 32 with 2-6 inches of snow. A virtual blizzard of 88 for this winter. In Keeping with the consistent trends of this entire season by Monday or Tuesday this will be forecast for an inch or less of snow with highs in the mid 40’s. And I’m 50 miles north of NYC in the metros cold area.

[heehaw453]

I can add nothing to the scientific analysis that Heehaw and Sroc bring to these setups so all I can add is this.

In keeping with my limited knowledge and the trusty weather app, and the last threat on the 23rd having morphed into the usual mild rainy event with highs in the upper 40’s let’s move on to the 25th.

Right now I’m forecast for a high of 32 with 2-6 inches of snow. A virtual blizzard of 88 for this winter. In Keeping with the consistent trends of this entire season by Monday or Tuesday this will be forecast for an inch or less of snow with highs in the mid 40’s. And I’m 50 miles north of NYC in the metros cold area.

I think the 25th's biggest obstacle is the weak s/w aided by the -PNA.  Just may not get enough s/w development precip for snowfall.  Probably will be cold enough, but end result may still be no snow OTG. So we fail when it's cold enough and of course we do well at failing with moisture rich cutters.  

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