Re: Long Range Thread 25.0

[sroc4]

Good point Heehaw

[amugs]

Good look here on LR GEFS - trough over EC, ridging out west and over the arctic

[heehaw453]

The models will continue to struggle with this storm evolution for at least another 24 hours IMO.  I still think this has too much working against it to produce.  1/bad antecedent air mass, 2/retreating high pressure, 3/collapsing ridge to the west via fast PAC flow.  I realize there is some optimism for the post D10, but need to start seeing tangible results as we are now in January and can't burn unlimited days.

[Frank_Wx]

500mb on euro conts to look decent. Don’t care about surface right now. Still big differences between gfs and euro leading up to Friday.

It does, but I disagree on not caring about the lower level temps.  The ULL is what you'd want to see closed off and in WV.  What is concerning to me is not seeing a banana high signature pumping in cold air.  Had we had good cold air in place I'd by more optimistic for more than c-1".

There’s too many s/w’s cutting to our west, hence temps in the upper 50s to 60s throughout most of this week. The deep negative out west kills this.

Good look here on LR GEFS - trough over EC, ridging out west and over the arctic

Gotta get the EPO negative again. I still can’t believe we’re on our third straight year of Nina. I don’t think I can handle a fourth straight (not gunna happen)

[amugs]

No 2 patterns are the same, but can be similar. I showed extensively on the Saturday summary why this winter may really rock Mid Jan on, rather than this back and forth we have had. Similar SST to 13-14 with N Pac hot spot pic.twitter.com/cCXhgBLvkc

— Joe Bastardi (@BigJoeBastardi) January 1, 2023

Hope it is close to this analog year 

[sroc4]

Yup. The west is a mess. ‍�

[docstox12]

Curious as to why you think,Frank, there will not be a 4th straight Nina year next winter.Statistically remote but still possible.

[sroc4]

Curious as to why you think,Frank, there will not be a 4th straight Nina year next winter.Statistically remote but still possible.

As it is three in a row has only occurred a small handful of time in recorded History.  As far as Im aware I dont think 4 has ever occured...in recorded history.  I also think there was a dash of willing it not to happen in Franks statement because it has created winter weather lover challenges.  But that's my guess.  Ill let Frank speak for himself.

[Frank_Wx]

Curious as to why you think,Frank, there will not be a 4th straight Nina year next winter.Statistically remote but still possible.

Aside from never witnessing four consecutive seasons of La Nina, there's evidence that points to ENSO-neutral conditions for this spring and POSSIBLY the emergence of El Nino for next winter.





This is the oceans way of reacting to the moderate-high La Nina state it has felt for several years now.

[amugs]

Remember we are in unprecedented times for weather and patterns. I would not be surprised to see a Nuetral ENSO state leaning a tad Negative due to various factors such as Low Solar we had for 2.5 years, massive VEI 6 Volcanic Explosion last year (1-15-22 Honga Tonga), Hadley and Walker cell perturbatons.

If you look atthe maps that JB posted about SST analog - where are warm waters in the PAC?? Wehere the ring of fire underwater volcanoes are located. Willie Soon and ?? did a recent publication on this.

[heehaw453]

We have experienced no measurable snowfall with a -4 sigma AO in much of the I95.  I would put this as improbable as much of the I95 in February 2020 having no measurable snowfall in peak climo (once in a lifetime kind of thing). Things are just down right strange. As of now I don't see this year being as bad as 2019/20, but a 16-20" rest of season accumulation on the I95 would be somewhat reasonable based on past similar bad starts. I wouldn't set my sights any higher than that.

[amugs]

Big post on https://t.co/VDPx6GPjEP on collapse of cold IOD and effect on MJO which we may be seeing now as models move stronger into the colder phases. Expect them to trend US temps down for mid month. Also Cahirs connection appearing again on Euro mid month Buckle up pic.twitter.com/E9o4xOIOEf

— Joe Bastardi (@BigJoeBastardi) January 2, 2023

[heehaw453]

Please post analysis/discussions for 1/6 here. The thread started mostly to keep the long range clean and there is a potential NW for a minor snowfall.

[amugs]

This is a massive storm that will prodcue 40' seas, feet of snow in the mountains and flooding, mudslides. Super Nino effects in a moderate La Nina year. Interesting

[heehaw453]

Maybe 9/10th some kind of baroclinic zone type of wave?  I don't really see deep cold air sliding down from the arctic in the foreseeable future, so it's probably going to be watching thermal boundary layers on any of these threats until mid-month at least.

[amugs]

Haw you don't need a deep arctic front as climo climax is the range we are in. 850's will tell the story for this time of year. Just has to be....cold enough and then we wet bulb. A favorable storm track helps as well but even wout it we can get a nice snowfall.

[sroc4]

SOI has been cranking in the high positives. When we see about 3-5-7days in a row of negative numbers from the SOI expect a trough and snow in the east about a week later give or take. As JB says “a cattle prod to the atmosphere”. Expect the MJo to make a run too; likely correlating with the SOI.  Just a waiting game. Hopefully sooner rather than later.

https://www.longpaddock.qld.gov.au/soi/

[amugs]

Looking at the latest ECMWF ensemble weekly forecast, I consider the forecast supportive of the potential for a sudden stratospheric warming as early as late January. Just my impression. pic.twitter.com/caHMfBGHR5

— Judah Cohen (@judah47) January 3, 2023

[Frank_Wx]

Promising

[heehaw453]

Haw you don't need a deep arctic front as climo climax is the range we are in. 850's will tell the story for this time of year. Just has to be....cold enough and then we wet bulb. A favorable storm track helps as well but even wout it we can get a nice snowfall.

Definitely Mugs doesn't have to be arctic dome on top of us, but need some fresh cold air pumped in to keep surface cold for weaker waves. This much more so applies to coastal plain. My guess is any coastal plain snow before mid-month is a baroclinic zone wave type of possibility.  Models have been hinting around 10th-11th.

[heehaw453]

This 3 week period 2 years ago produced about 30" of snow in NYC.  Got to keep that ridge from draping the EC.  This was a Nina year. If the longer range is correct on the models (second picture) then we'll make up for lost time, but big IF.  Need the ridge off the east coast for an extended period and skeptical until I see things in the shorter term.

[Frank_Wx]

00z suites last night went back to keeping the negatives over EPO and PNA regions, which maintains the ridge across EC. We need a SSWE to break this pattern.

[heehaw453]

Baroclinic zone wave. This has the potential for light snow on Saturday night/Sunday morning.  Few things to consider 1/surface temps especially on the coastal plain will be marginal, 2/how much s/w action we get on the baroclinic zone.  But I'd say it's probably I95 best shot at seeing snowfall on colder surfaces so far this season. Let's see in the next day or two what happens.

[amugs]

From Larry Cosgrove:
Let us go a little more in-depth about the upcoming sudden stratospheric warming event. With an add-on of how the Madden-Julian Oscillation could be an influence in getting a winter re-start in North America in the second half of the month.

I realize with the rather boring temperature display in the USA and Canada, that any talk of an Arctic intrusion may be (mildly putting it....) triggering smirks from people enjoying the (predicted) January Thaw. But for about a week now, all four of the numerical model forecasts for the 10MB level have consistently shown a warming in the stratosphere over Russia that culminates in a (relatively) warm bubble aloft over Alaska, British Columbia and the Yukon Territory after January 15. When you see an SSW episode, look at the general flow, the position of the circumpolar vortex, and the extent of snow and ice cover. Upon doing this, you realize that a "Siberian Express" with cross-polar flow option could occur between January 15 and February 1. This configuration looks much stronger and longer-lived than the December cold surge and Great Lakes storm.

Of course things could change. But when I look at the rather inert Madden-Julian Oscillation, and see the various guidance pulsing the core to southwest of the Hawaiian Islands, and a linkage to the now disconnected polar westerlies, you can put together a "trouble brewing" scenario. I have seen similar cases of upper atmospheric disturbances and interplay, and will be looking for one of the northern stream impulses to dig through the southern tier of the U.S., then deepen as it heads up along and/off of the Eastern Seaboard. If the intensification occurs with great surface divergence and upper air convergence, the "Thaw" will leave town in a hurry.

[heehaw453]

The 8-10th seems to be active window.  Cold enough at all layers? Lots of s/w energy approaching? It was a period of interest of mine due to the baroclinic zone setting up.  Sometimes they can produce if you're on the cold side and a vigorous enough wave rides them.  At some point the rubber has to meet the road around here I'm hoping.

[sroc4]

The 8-10th seems to be active window.  Cold enough at all layers? Lots of s/w energy approaching? It was a period of interest of mine due to the baroclinic zone setting up.  Sometimes they can produce if you're on the cold side and a vigorous enough wave rides them.  At some point the rubber has to meet the road around here I'm hoping.

Weenies gonna ween. All those who continue to jump off the bridge for the winter can cont to do so. (Not you btw). I have a feeling something will hit. I was texting a buddy of mine back on Dec 27th and my statement to him was and I quote "Between 7-10th is the transition. First snow threat 9th-12th, more realistic 12th-15th" Like you I still stand by that.

[heehaw453]

The 8-10th seems to be active window.  Cold enough at all layers? Lots of s/w energy approaching? It was a period of interest of mine due to the baroclinic zone setting up.  Sometimes they can produce if you're on the cold side and a vigorous enough wave rides them.  At some point the rubber has to meet the road around here I'm hoping.

Weenies gonna ween.  All those who continue to jump off the bridge for the winter can cont to do so.  (Not you btw).  I have a feeling something will hit.  I was texting a buddy of mine back on Dec 27th and my statement to him was and I quote "Between 7-10th is the transition.  First snow threat 9th-12th, more realistic 12th-15th" Like you I still stand by that.

From my point of view I don't see repeat of winter 19-20 (single digit snowfall for most).  On the other hand, bad start Nina's are not ones where I would bet on seeing avg seasonal snowfall for most.  I think to get there going to have to get clocked by a Godzilla.  But I am open to a change of thoughts as conditions warrant.

[Sponsored content]