2023 Atlantic Tropics season

Frank_Wx wrote:Wow, some great posts in this thread by Ray, Scott and others. Very informative and educational. I feel caught up!

If this trough over the eastern U.S. developed a few days earlier, we would be talking about a major hurricane barreling into some area along the coast...



As of now looks like the primary impact will be high surf. I think we can deal with that!

phil155 wrote:The overall structure of the storm does not look as good as it did earlier. It almost looks to my again very novice eyes like there is some sheer or dry air impacting the east and south east portion of the system. Again just my novice observation

amugs wrote:From a post this guy has been saying for a week now - this sis the position he sees and marks the players. IF he gets there to 72W then the coast is in play if he only gets to 70 W then it’s a clip cap and Maine/Nova Scotia Storm he says from years of tracking. Time will tell and by Sunday we'll have a better idea......hopefully.

sroc4 wrote:

GreyBeard wrote:

sroc4 wrote:

GreyBeard wrote:From what I have been reading, there are two main players that will determine the track.The position and strength of the Bermuda high and the position of the jet stream. Good article explaining this.

https://www.accuweather.com/en/hurricane/hurricane-lee-a-monster-hurricane-as-accuweather-forecasters-up-risk-of-us-impacts/1577689

https://cms.accuweather.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/09/scenarios-update.gif?w=632

Good article, but it Sounds familiar  

No offense meant, but they put in in terms that weren't as technical as your analysis which made it easier for me to understand.

None taken at all Greybeard.  I know my post maybe sounded a bit arrogant, but its nice sometimes to feel validated when the professionals agree with your thoughts...esp as a mere weather enthusiast without the credentials.  

jmanley32 wrote:Wow that shear destroyed him! 11pm 115mph (35mph drop in 6 hrs), progged to be a cat 2 again and then ramp back up to a major once it hits a better area.

GreyBeard wrote:One thing we got going in our favor is that the waters aren't as warm up here and Franklin churned things up ahead of Lee's arrival.

sroc4 wrote:Morning.  I def failed to recognize just how much shear there would be yesterday, and ultimately how it would affectLee.  Again kudos to Phil for pointing it out yesterday am.  Throughout the day yesterday there was a wind vector in the upper levels (between about 300-200mb) coming out of the SW quadrant that was imparting vertical wind shear on the system.  

In order for me to learn I like to try and explain these things to others.  It helps reinforce the ideas in my own mind for future scenarios, so I will attempt here to explain what happened yesterday into today regarding why Lee weakened from the shear and where it came from in the first place.  So bear with me.  

Keep in mind that the optimal conditions would be, starting at the surface, air rushing in to a common center counterclockwise, and then rising up the atmosphere also counterclockwise to create low pressure.  The faster and higher in the atmosphere the air rises the deeper/stronger the low pressure.  However; as the air continues to rise eventually it reaches a level in the atmosphere where the airs motion then switches from converging and counterclockwise, to diverging and clockwise.  

Lets use the fireplace, and chimney analogy... the hot air from the fire converges on the opening in the chimney above the fire.  The intense hot air rises up the chimney creating low pressure; as it exits the top of the chimney it ventilates out away from the chimney to allow the next parcels of rising air to do the same.  As the air rising up the center of our tropical system reaches the upper levels of the atmosphere it too begins to move outward in all directions to ventilate the system allowing the next parcels of air to rise and replace the ventilating air.  

Lets look at some images to visualize and understand better this analogy and how it applies to Lee.  Below are the 300mb(roughly 30,000ft above sea level) and 200mb(roughly 40,000ft above sea level) euro wind maps respectively from about 8pm last night.  The center of Lee is clearly labeled, and notice the Black arrow originating in the center of Lee.  This shows his track's NW trajectory.  Notice how between 30-40K ft in pretty much all but the SW quadrant, the air is moving away from the center of Lee.  This is indicative of good ventilation for the system.  However; in the SW quadrant there is a wind vector that is towards the center of the system, and almost perpendicular to the vector/direction of Lees track.  This is what creates vertical wind shear.  This disrupts the engine of the system effectively capping off how strong of a LP can develop because max ventilation is not happening on all sides of the chimney.  






Visualized a little differently:  




I hope this helped some understand better what took place yesterday.  This obv is a somewhat simplistic breakdown of a complex system of organized chaos, but again it helps me understand this stuff better by attempting to teach it to others.  Rb(Ray), Frank, Quietace(Ryan), if you're out there or anyone else with better understanding than me, if there is anything that might be inaccurate and/or something that can be added to this Id love to hear it.  

Anyway lets see what the next 24hrs brings.  

We Track!!  

jmanley32 wrote:

rb924119 wrote:

Frank_Wx wrote:Wow, some great posts in this thread by Ray, Scott and others. Very informative and educational. I feel caught up!

If this trough over the eastern U.S. developed a few days earlier, we would be talking about a major hurricane barreling into some area along the coast...



As of now looks like the primary impact will be high surf. I think we can deal with that!

HE LIVES!! Good to see you, fearless leader! Hope you’ve been well!

I think we are still talking about the potential of a major hurricane barreling into the East Coast……or at least I am, even if it’s to myself haha

But in all seriousness, if you look at H5, you’ll note that the initial trough that was progged to be over the central Ohio Valley is now being modeled to be quicker and significantly shallower than it was. This is the keystone to why I think we are far from being in the clear, and is something I mentioned in my discussions. I don’t think that trough ever actually managed to influence the steering flow around Lee because synoptically there’s resistance to it. I felt, and still believe, that there will be a buffer zone between that trough and and associated frontal boundary and Lee, which means that the Atlantic ridge should* be able to extend further back southwestward and maintain a more westerly component to the steering flow longer than is currently modeled before Lee starts turning more north in response to the secondary trough over the Tennessee Valley, which I think is also synoptically supported.

We are STILL a week away, and as we know from tracking snow storms, the track is far from certain at this stage.

is your threat area still nc to msine? If u had to guess where u think would be most likely if your thinking played out, ya i know its way to early and u def dont have make a guess. But No not go take it verbatim or hold u to it lol