2023 Atlantic Tropics season
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Re: 2023 Atlantic Tropics season
Frank_Wx wrote:Wow, some great posts in this thread by Ray, Scott and others. Very informative and educational. I feel caught up!
If this trough over the eastern U.S. developed a few days earlier, we would be talking about a major hurricane barreling into some area along the coast...
As of now looks like the primary impact will be high surf. I think we can deal with that!
HE LIVES!! Good to see you, fearless leader! Hope you’ve been well!
I think we are still talking about the potential of a major hurricane barreling into the East Coast……or at least I am, even if it’s to myself haha
But in all seriousness, if you look at H5, you’ll note that the initial trough that was progged to be over the central Ohio Valley is now being modeled to be quicker and significantly shallower than it was. This is the keystone to why I think we are far from being in the clear, and is something I mentioned in my discussions. I don’t think that trough ever actually managed to influence the steering flow around Lee because synoptically there’s resistance to it. I felt, and still believe, that there will be a buffer zone between that trough and and associated frontal boundary and Lee, which means that the Atlantic ridge should* be able to extend further back southwestward and maintain a more westerly component to the steering flow longer than is currently modeled before Lee starts turning more north in response to the secondary trough over the Tennessee Valley, which I think is also synoptically supported.
We are STILL a week away, and as we know from tracking snow storms, the track is far from certain at this stage.
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Re: 2023 Atlantic Tropics season
phil155 wrote:The overall structure of the storm does not look as good as it did earlier. It almost looks to my again very novice eyes like there is some sheer or dry air impacting the east and south east portion of the system. Again just my novice observation
Ah ha, I was right! You DID go 2/2 lol
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Re: 2023 Atlantic Tropics season
amugs wrote:From a post this guy has been saying for a week now - this sis the position he sees and marks the players. IF he gets there to 72W then the coast is in play if he only gets to 70 W then it’s a clip cap and Maine/Nova Scotia Storm he says from years of tracking. Time will tell and by Sunday we'll have a better idea......hopefully.
Is this from Cranky? Lol
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Re: 2023 Atlantic Tropics season
sroc4 wrote:GreyBeard wrote:sroc4 wrote:GreyBeard wrote:From what I have been reading, there are two main players that will determine the track.The position and strength of the Bermuda high and the position of the jet stream. Good article explaining this.
https://www.accuweather.com/en/hurricane/hurricane-lee-a-monster-hurricane-as-accuweather-forecasters-up-risk-of-us-impacts/1577689
Good article, but it Sounds familiar![]()
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No offense meant, but they put in in terms that weren't as technical as your analysis which made it easier for me to understand.
None taken at all Greybeard. I know my post maybe sounded a bit arrogant, but its nice sometimes to feel validated when the professionals agree with your thoughts...esp as a mere weather enthusiast without the credentials.
This bothers me. So what that you “don’t have the credentials”? Neither does Tom (Isotherm, which, does anybody know if he’s ok?? I haven’t seen him anywhere in like two years….). He didn’t go to school for meteorology and to this day I would have LOVED to see him talk weather with my professors at Albany, who were one of the top departments in the nation, because I think he would have taken them to school. The credentials are nothing more than paper, my friend. What really matters is experience, humbleness, attention to detail, having an ability to remain objective, and a willingness to dig into things that you either don’t understand or you got wrong so that you can learn from your mistakes. You can teach yourself the material. But quite honestly, as a forecaster, you don’t need to know the mathematics behind the atmosphere, you only need to understand HOW they work in real time. Clearly, you’ve demonstrated every single one of these traits, and are a great forecaster! You’re certainly better than a lot of people I know, and you’ve bested me plenty of times, Joaquin being one of them lol so don’t sell yourself short, man. That goes for Frank, heehaw (I’m surprised you’re not here too, hope you’re well!), mugsy, Tom, and others whose names currently escape me. Don’t forget, when I first joined on ABC’s board some 15 or so years ago, I learned about things like pattern recognition and reading streamflow from you, Frank, and mugsy. And that’s been WAY more useful to me than understanding how to interpret a mathematical formula and then calculate omega values lol
You guys are all great forecasters with PROVEN records, credentialed or not, it’s results and reliability that matter most to people
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Re: 2023 Atlantic Tropics season
jmanley32 wrote:Wow that shear destroyed him! 11pm 115mph (35mph drop in 6 hrs), progged to be a cat 2 again and then ramp back up to a major once it hits a better area.
See? Doesn’t take much to significantly disrupt these things. When they are that strong, it’s a very delicate balance. Like the latter stages of a Jenga game. The slightest shift in any particular piece can cause the whole thing to collapse, and that’s what we just saw happen yesterday. Granted, it is still a cat-3, but you get my point haha
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Re: 2023 Atlantic Tropics season
GreyBeard wrote:One thing we got going in our favor is that the waters aren't as warm up here and Franklin churned things up ahead of Lee's arrival.
Franklin’s shadow will only add destructive interference IF Lee travels over the same area…..I’m not sure it will. If it passes between Franklin’s shadow and the East Coast, then it’s a moot point. If anything, I think intensity would come down relatively slower due to stronger venting from the Tennessee Valley trough.
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Re: 2023 Atlantic Tropics season
sroc4 wrote:Morning. I def failed to recognize just how much shear there would be yesterday, and ultimately how it would affectLee. Again kudos to Phil for pointing it out yesterday am. Throughout the day yesterday there was a wind vector in the upper levels (between about 300-200mb) coming out of the SW quadrant that was imparting vertical wind shear on the system.
In order for me to learn I like to try and explain these things to others. It helps reinforce the ideas in my own mind for future scenarios, so I will attempt here to explain what happened yesterday into today regarding why Lee weakened from the shear and where it came from in the first place. So bear with me.
Keep in mind that the optimal conditions would be, starting at the surface, air rushing in to a common center counterclockwise, and then rising up the atmosphere also counterclockwise to create low pressure. The faster and higher in the atmosphere the air rises the deeper/stronger the low pressure. However; as the air continues to rise eventually it reaches a level in the atmosphere where the airs motion then switches from converging and counterclockwise, to diverging and clockwise.
Lets use the fireplace, and chimney analogy... the hot air from the fire converges on the opening in the chimney above the fire. The intense hot air rises up the chimney creating low pressure; as it exits the top of the chimney it ventilates out away from the chimney to allow the next parcels of rising air to do the same. As the air rising up the center of our tropical system reaches the upper levels of the atmosphere it too begins to move outward in all directions to ventilate the system allowing the next parcels of air to rise and replace the ventilating air.
Lets look at some images to visualize and understand better this analogy and how it applies to Lee. Below are the 300mb(roughly 30,000ft above sea level) and 200mb(roughly 40,000ft above sea level) euro wind maps respectively from about 8pm last night. The center of Lee is clearly labeled, and notice the Black arrow originating in the center of Lee. This shows his track's NW trajectory. Notice how between 30-40K ft in pretty much all but the SW quadrant, the air is moving away from the center of Lee. This is indicative of good ventilation for the system. However; in the SW quadrant there is a wind vector that is towards the center of the system, and almost perpendicular to the vector/direction of Lees track. This is what creates vertical wind shear. This disrupts the engine of the system effectively capping off how strong of a LP can develop because max ventilation is not happening on all sides of the chimney.
Visualized a little differently:
I hope this helped some understand better what took place yesterday. This obv is a somewhat simplistic breakdown of a complex system of organized chaos, but again it helps me understand this stuff better by attempting to teach it to others. Rb(Ray), Frank, Quietace(Ryan), if you're out there or anyone else with better understanding than me, if there is anything that might be inaccurate and/or something that can be added to this Id love to hear it.
Anyway lets see what the next 24hrs brings.
We Track!!
See my first response to you today lol this is fantastic! The only thing I would add is that the reason the air spreads aloft is because it hits the tropopause, which is a stable layer that resists vertical motion like a wall. The rising air hits it, and then has to spread out. When it spreads out, the coriolis force affects it, and that’s why it changes to clockwise direction, just like surface high pressure.
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Re: 2023 Atlantic Tropics season
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Re: 2023 Atlantic Tropics season
run on tt nowhere near there what you use? Thats ceazy. Ray snd you may be on this.sroc4 wrote:EURO misses the trough then gets sucked back into LI
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Re: 2023 Atlantic Tropics season
yup i get it i was still surprised.rb924119 wrote:jmanley32 wrote:Wow that shear destroyed him! 11pm 115mph (35mph drop in 6 hrs), progged to be a cat 2 again and then ramp back up to a major once it hits a better area.
See? Doesn’t take much to significantly disrupt these things. When they are that strong, it’s a very delicate balance. Like the latter stages of a Jenga game. The slightest shift in any particular piece can cause the whole thing to collapse, and that’s what we just saw happen yesterday. Granted, it is still a cat-3, but you get my point haha
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Re: 2023 Atlantic Tropics season
jmanley32 wrote:run on tt nowhere near there what you use? Thats ceazy. Ray snd you may be on this.sroc4 wrote:EURO misses the trough then gets sucked back into LI
![]()
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Re: 2023 Atlantic Tropics season
woww saw it jeeze thats wcs right there. Massive too. Slams everyone from nj to cape code and northsroc4 wrote:jmanley32 wrote:run on tt nowhere near there what you use? Thats ceazy. Ray snd you may be on this.sroc4 wrote:EURO misses the trough then gets sucked back into LI
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Re: 2023 Atlantic Tropics season
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Re: 2023 Atlantic Tropics season
is your threat area still nc to msine? If u had to guess where u think would be most likely if your thinking played out, ya i know its way to early and u def dont have make a guess. But No not go take it verbatim or hold u to it lolrb924119 wrote:Frank_Wx wrote:Wow, some great posts in this thread by Ray, Scott and others. Very informative and educational. I feel caught up!
If this trough over the eastern U.S. developed a few days earlier, we would be talking about a major hurricane barreling into some area along the coast...
As of now looks like the primary impact will be high surf. I think we can deal with that!
HE LIVES!! Good to see you, fearless leader! Hope you’ve been well!
I think we are still talking about the potential of a major hurricane barreling into the East Coast……or at least I am, even if it’s to myself haha
But in all seriousness, if you look at H5, you’ll note that the initial trough that was progged to be over the central Ohio Valley is now being modeled to be quicker and significantly shallower than it was. This is the keystone to why I think we are far from being in the clear, and is something I mentioned in my discussions. I don’t think that trough ever actually managed to influence the steering flow around Lee because synoptically there’s resistance to it. I felt, and still believe, that there will be a buffer zone between that trough and and associated frontal boundary and Lee, which means that the Atlantic ridge should* be able to extend further back southwestward and maintain a more westerly component to the steering flow longer than is currently modeled before Lee starts turning more north in response to the secondary trough over the Tennessee Valley, which I think is also synoptically supported.
We are STILL a week away, and as we know from tracking snow storms, the track is far from certain at this stage.
Last edited by jmanley32 on Sat Sep 09, 2023 4:21 pm; edited 1 time in total
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Re: 2023 Atlantic Tropics season
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Re: 2023 Atlantic Tropics season
rb924119 wrote:amugs wrote:From a post this guy has been saying for a week now - this sis the position he sees and marks the players. IF he gets there to 72W then the coast is in play if he only gets to 70 W then it’s a clip cap and Maine/Nova Scotia Storm he says from years of tracking. Time will tell and by Sunday we'll have a better idea......hopefully.
Is this from Cranky? Lol
No Da Buh on Twitter. Guys great at Ocean Storms, big time surfer dude.
Okay and great explanations above.
Margot more east and missing the trough allowing Lee to vent more, slow up and the Ridge to blossom and trough to dig and go Negative. Not a far fetch many might think but it is a crazy balance. Long ways to go. Could be in Iceland (jk) and then a few runs later LI again.
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Re: 2023 Atlantic Tropics season
Let’s break down the 12z Euro…what happened this run? Many subtle things that result in a big track change farther west.
— eweather (@Eweather13) September 9, 2023
First, #Lee is moving slower which gives the trough in the NE US time to lift out ahead of Lee. The ridge to the east builds in stronger and Margot way… pic.twitter.com/modiTkQgIS
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Re: 2023 Atlantic Tropics season
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Re: 2023 Atlantic Tropics season
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Re: 2023 Atlantic Tropics season
jmanley32 wrote:is your threat area still nc to msine? If u had to guess where u think would be most likely if your thinking played out, ya i know its way to early and u def dont have make a guess. But No not go take it verbatim or hold u to it lolrb924119 wrote:Frank_Wx wrote:Wow, some great posts in this thread by Ray, Scott and others. Very informative and educational. I feel caught up!
If this trough over the eastern U.S. developed a few days earlier, we would be talking about a major hurricane barreling into some area along the coast...
As of now looks like the primary impact will be high surf. I think we can deal with that!
HE LIVES!! Good to see you, fearless leader! Hope you’ve been well!
I think we are still talking about the potential of a major hurricane barreling into the East Coast……or at least I am, even if it’s to myself haha
But in all seriousness, if you look at H5, you’ll note that the initial trough that was progged to be over the central Ohio Valley is now being modeled to be quicker and significantly shallower than it was. This is the keystone to why I think we are far from being in the clear, and is something I mentioned in my discussions. I don’t think that trough ever actually managed to influence the steering flow around Lee because synoptically there’s resistance to it. I felt, and still believe, that there will be a buffer zone between that trough and and associated frontal boundary and Lee, which means that the Atlantic ridge should* be able to extend further back southwestward and maintain a more westerly component to the steering flow longer than is currently modeled before Lee starts turning more north in response to the secondary trough over the Tennessee Valley, which I think is also synoptically supported.
We are STILL a week away, and as we know from tracking snow storms, the track is far from certain at this stage.
Yea, I still like the zone from North Carolina to Maine. Within that, I think the highest threat exists from about coastal Virginia to Cape Cod. Beyond that, if you take the centerline through my highest threat zone, that runs through about Long Island. So theoretically, I guess based on my thinking, that’s where the landfall would be. At least based on my preliminary analysis.
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Re: 2023 Atlantic Tropics season
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Re: 2023 Atlantic Tropics season
Tropicaltidbits now has the Euro runs full 240, ill post the Euro for you here ya go. Next Sun/Mon. Of course not to be taken verbatim still nearly 10 days out.dkodgis wrote:The European model shows it closer to the east coast. How do I know? No. I have no premium access to anything. Channel 7 Accuweather showed the spaghetti models taking it away from our area but the remark was made the European model shows Lee closer. There is still about five days to go to be even close about the modeling showing anything more concrete. I see another storm behind Lee. Busy busy busy.
![2023 Atlantic Tropics season - Page 12 Ecmwf_21](https://i.servimg.com/u/f53/18/65/60/45/ecmwf_21.png)
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Re: 2023 Atlantic Tropics season
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Re: 2023 Atlantic Tropics season
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Re: 2023 Atlantic Tropics season
![2023 Atlantic Tropics season - Page 12 Nhc_5a11](https://i.servimg.com/u/f63/18/49/18/50/nhc_5a11.png)
![2023 Atlantic Tropics season - Page 12 Nhc_5a12](https://i.servimg.com/u/f63/18/49/18/50/nhc_5a12.png)
![2023 Atlantic Tropics season - Page 12 Nhc_5a14](https://i.servimg.com/u/f63/18/49/18/50/nhc_5a14.png)
I am taking a direct hit between the Cape and the Delmarva off the table. In fact I'm going to to say anything S of Atlantic City is off my table for a direct landfall. I am going to put a direct US Landfall, Atlantic city through eastern Maine, at a 15-30% chance of happening from west to east respectively. The trend has been for a deeper and stronger trough and a weaker N Atlantic ridge which would increase the likely hood of a recurve. Now keep in mind there is still uncertainty. These are my thoughts as of the current information available; however as we know things are subject to change should the next 2-3days trend differently that the past 2-3 days. The timing of the trough lifting out relative to the system really holds the key. The only way it lifts out before Lee gains too much latitude is if he trends to the south side of the current forecast cone as stated above.
![2023 Atlantic Tropics season - Page 12 Gfs_tr11](https://i.servimg.com/u/f63/18/49/18/50/gfs_tr11.png)
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Re: 2023 Atlantic Tropics season
CONSISTENCY IN RIDGE STRENGTH HOLDS OVER CANADIAN MARITIMES AS #LEE MOVES NORTH THIS WEEK
— Mike Masco (@MikeMasco) September 10, 2023
You're just not going to get the model consistency you need right now for the overall surface track of #HurricaneLee for later this week. As you saw in yesterday's European model run the… pic.twitter.com/LAZb0RE3qw
Depiction of how Margot which is stronger and more west = breaks the ridge down in the North Atlantic thus weakening it and the Upper Level trough over the GL. The trough cant pull Lee closer to teh coast and the Ridge allows him in concert to lift further NE. A delicate balance but again one run. windshiled wiper effect at full play here? Slight chnages mean a sliver of space in our world but major changes for us overall.
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