Re: Long Range Thread 27.0

[dsix85]

Great work and insight by the wonderful folks on this board. All of these elements at play show that it takes a lot to come together for everyone on this board to see substantial storms resulting in snow. Some years we have the brutal cold suppressing storms to the south, and we complain we can’t get snow but have the cold. Things are different at the moment where the storm signal is there but it’s not matching up to the cold being in place. Please keep in mind that we are entering mid-December, we may not get our big snows until late January or February where we tend to see our biggest snowstorms. Until then, we shall watch and hope.

[Frank_Wx]

The storm signal on the 18th is massive. Just unfortunate how there’s little cold air as of today’s modeling. Maybe we see an unknown piece of northern energy try to eject out of the north and bring down cold air with it. We won’t know for a few more days. But as of now 18th is looking very rainy.

[tomsriversnowstorm]

Thank you so much. That is a great response that made it simple for someone with limited knowledge understand. I really appreciate it.

Mugs is it possible for the mjo to get into the good phase before winter is over? Or is this something that will take months or years? Sorry I just have no clue and you seem like an expert.

My answer to this is 100% absolutely it's possible.  MJO is a broad pulse of convection along the equator that extends between the Indian ocean eastward through the eastern Pacific that tends to propagate eastward with time until which time it collapses, on those graphs into the center circle.  Where the convection is dictates what phase of the MJO is in.  On avg any give MJO pulse can last for anywhere around 10-14 days or as long as 20-30days or more depending on multiple factors.  So while mugs shows the MJO collapse into the center its the ideas of many and in some of the actual MJO forecasts that it will re-emerge out into some of the more favorable phases sometime between Xmas and new years.  That said it is also possible that it does not re-emerge, or it re-emerges back out into the warm phases.  Time will tell and as of now, cautious optimism required, all signs point to a more favorable MJO at some point in the next 2-3weeks.  Does it lead to snow in my back yard or yours?  Man I hope so.

[heehaw453]

What I normally do is look for precipitous changes in the NAM state during winter months. I can dig up the stats and show this but for the coastal plain more often than not there are changes either starting a period of blocking or exiting a period. Here a ~-2 SD drop on the ensembles catches my eye for the NAO (AO is similar). So from 23-28 would be a window that the coastal plain could get something interesting. The 18th definitely has a strong storm signal, but snow threat is for NNE IMO.  Like I said before not ready to give up on December just yet...

[sroc4]

What I normally do is look for precipitous changes in the NAM state during winter months. I can dig up the stats and show this but for the coastal plain more often than not there are changes either starting a period of blocking or exiting a period. Here a ~-2 SD drop on the ensembles catches my eye for the NAO (AO is similar). So from 23-28 would be a window that the coastal plain could get something interesting. The 18th definitely has a strong storm signal, but snow threat is for NNE IMO.  Like I said before not ready to give up on December just yet...

FWIW the GEFS Extended forecast looks good on almost every teleconnection. Decent PNA spike around the same time you mention.  Only tele that isnt ideal, but prob is the least important, esp when the rest are in phase with each other, is the positive WPO.  

[amugs]

Drop the PV lobe another 300.Miles S or SE and game one.

[aiannone]

BAH HUMBUG!!!

[SENJsnowman]

Bah Humbug indeed! Even Alaska gets in on the torch action!

[Frank_Wx]

Drop the PV lobe another 300.Miles S or SE and game one.

Came here to say this…

EURO was close to showing a Godzilla.

[sroc4]

BAH HUMBUG!!!

[Irish]

So, are we on, are we off. Are we tracking or punting until post Christmas/ New Years?

[rb924119]

So, are we on, are we off. Are we tracking or punting until post Christmas/ New Years?  

I'm working on my discussion now, probably have it posted in the morning since I'll have to upload it and then let it buffer before I post the link to the video. Granted it's just my opinion, but to answer your question succinctly, I am most definitely tracking, and it starts with the 18th-20th. Beyond that, I also think that there is A LOT to be optimistic about, but I'll probably post that discussion separately because I have a lot to say lol

[Irish]

So, are we on, are we off. Are we tracking or punting until post Christmas/ New Years?  

I'm working on my discussion now, probably have it posted in the morning since I'll have to upload it and then let it buffer before I post the link to the video. Granted it's just my opinion, but to answer your question succinctly, I am most definitely tracking, and it starts with the 18th-20th. Beyond that, I also think that there is A LOT to be optimistic about, but I'll probably post that discussion separately because I have a lot to say lol

That's awesome to hear. Hope I can understand 3% of it.

[jmanley32]

Drop the PV lobe another 300.Miles S or SE and game one.

Came here to say this…

EURO was close to showing a Godzilla.

It was pretty far offshore but I presume it was close enough to spark interest, however I see you removed the snow confidence of 5% for that period. Wouldn't that be something, a godzilla in mid-december...when was the last time that happened? I am sure not that long ago but I do not recall.

[rb924119]

Upload in progress.....

[CPcantmeasuresnow]

My thoughts on this current Wall and upcoming Wing season forthcoming.

As for the season we once referred to as Winter, which has not existed now for several years, the late Roy Orbison and former Travelin Wilbury, will sum it up in song.


https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=-Jm3Tq_q4yU

[docstox12]

My thoughts on this current Wall and upcoming Wing season forthcoming.

As for the season we once referred to as Winter, which has not existed now for several years, the late Roy Orbison and former Travelin Wilbury, will sum it up in song.


https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=-Jm3Tq_q4yU

The amazing Wilbury's with one of a kind Roy, the penultimate break up song!I am inspired to pick up my acousitic ,find the key he is in and strum along!
I have been holding the line here CP but feel like General Custer on the Big Horn.Instead of being surrounded by "Native Americans" .it is Pac Jets and Strats that will not break up the Polar Vortex.Heading back to OTI for some Sanitarium and Coconut Lounge time.Dismal week coming up!

[rb924119]

Ok, folks, here is the link to my discussion on the 18th-20th threat:

https://drive.google.com/file/d/1LvuedLeAMir9-xs-I2-GnsZgJzuT4oFy/view?usp=sharing

I always intend for these things to be reasonable in length, but by now, I'm sure that you all realize they never end up to be haha anyway, the main takeaway is that I think we will see a powerful storm develop along the Eastern Seaboard during this period, and with the expected setup, I absolutely think that there will be a snow threat with this. Granted, it may be tough to get snow to the coastal plain, but I definitely think that the interior is in play for a significant snow event, and it's certainly possible that the coast gets in on the action too. I think that multiple factors in the Northern Hemisphere and Tropics support the maintenance of our western North America (PNA) ridge in a favorable location and orientation, and I think that there is plenty of support to say that we should see faster/stronger secondary wave so that it phases into the developing coastal feature. That should really amplify the dynamics in play, which would assist with cooling the column, and also significantly enhance the precipitation field. This will be a big-ticket item, in my opinion, and I think that we will see modeling come to this idea in future runs. We'll see!

To follow this up, as I mentioned a while ago, I also think that this storm is the first "domino" to fall with respect to the evolution of the longer range pattern. This storm will help to continue to force the retrogression of the mid-latitude blocking, and start force the mean ridge from the North Atlantic toward Hudson Bay. Additionally, we should see the MJO emerge into favorable phases with significant amplitude, and also start to see the effects of the Stratospheric warming as we approach and eclipse the New Year. Lastly, the ENSO conditions should continue to generally cooperate. Once all of these align, we should see quite the auspicious pattern for both sustained cold and snow. I'll probably go over this in a separate video discussion later on. Until then, though, we should see continued/renewed blocking across the northern mid-latitudes. Even though the air won't be Arctic cold, Canadian cold this time of year could work just the same if given the right setup. I think the storm from the 18th-20th is one such setup and event, and as I have said before, with repeated blocking events across Canada through the remainder of the month, I will absolutely take my chances.

I hope that you enjoy the video, and if you have any questions, comments, or concerns, please feel free to post and we will discuss! Thanks for watching!

[rb924119]

In addendum to the above, the modeling is not going to be able to accurately reflect the dynamics in play at this stage, so aspects such as dynamical cooling, as well as the scope and intensity of the precipitation shield, won't really be "seen" yet, especially by lower-resolution ensembles. However, this is part of the reason why I think we start to see the models "trend" to a bigger snow threat in coming runs.

[heehaw453]

In addendum to the above, the modeling is not going to be able to accurately reflect the dynamics in play at this stage, so aspects such as dynamical cooling, as well as the scope and intensity of the precipitation shield, won't really be "seen" yet, especially by lower-resolution ensembles. However, this is part of the reason why I think we start to see the models "trend" to a bigger snow threat in coming runs.

Great job and highly appreciated! Very comprehensive and sound reasoning. I'm too old school in my thoughts. I'm one of those that need to see a big dome of cold air in place kind of folks. I do agree with you n/s injection of the cold air could trend this colder but I think for sig snow threat that'd benefit folks deeper into NY State and CNE/NNE. If we had a fresh injection of cold before this thing arrived I'd be on board for more of the immediate area. But you definitely have my interest piqued.

[sroc4]

In addendum to the above, the modeling is not going to be able to accurately reflect the dynamics in play at this stage, so aspects such as dynamical cooling, as well as the scope and intensity of the precipitation shield, won't really be "seen" yet, especially by lower-resolution ensembles. However, this is part of the reason why I think we start to see the models "trend" to a bigger snow threat in coming runs.

Great job and highly appreciated! Very comprehensive and sound reasoning. I'm too old school in my thoughts. I'm one of those that need to see a big dome of cold air in place kind of folks. I do agree with you n/s injection of the cold air could trend this colder but I think for sig snow threat that'd benefit folks deeper into NY State and CNE/NNE. If we had a fresh injection of cold before this thing arrived I'd be on board for more of the immediate area. But you definitely have my interest piqued.

Ray I have not had a chance to watch the video yet to hear the details, but since you mention things like dynamic cooling and scope and intensity of precip shield etc. I have to throw my two cents in.  First let me lead with what Im about to say is about as general a statement as possible since we all know anything that involves any sort of surface details at this lead time is almost entirely useless.  

That said there has to be a huge fundamental shift in how the modeling is being handled, operational and ensembles alike, regarding the 500mb set up for this.  As it stands now this system comes up and is 100% southern stream.  And because it is so amped up from its inception in the SW CONUS, the southern energy that will give birth to this threat, as it traverses the southern tear pf the country, raises heights out ahead with exceptional voracity.   This not only resuts in a very warm antecedant air mass well into NE, but also raises dew points exceptionally high throughout NE.  As it stands now as the system reaches our latitude there isnt a below freezing DP in the the NE USA, making any discussion about dynamic cooling regardless of how intense the precip banding becomes pretty much a mute point for most of the area.    On top of that the 850-925mb level are torched.





Now again do not think for a second I dont recognize that the details of the three images I just showed wont change, but the point Im trying to make is that fundamentally unless we see a major shift in how these models are handling the 500mb pattern north of the boarder even if this trends cooler it wont be enough for 98% of the people on this board.  Without a linkage with the northern stream min 24hrs earlier this will remain warm for pretty much all.  That said it does appear that on the ensembles there has been a slow trend towards closer interactions between the N and S streams, but there is still a very long way to go.

[weatherwatchermom]

Drop the PV lobe another 300.Miles S or SE and game one.

Came here to say this…

EURO was close to showing a Godzilla.

Tease

[amugs]

I agree this could be the transition storm we need to bomb out and drop the trough down and pump the NAO region.
One thing El Nino and STJ is flexing some muscle, GOM is open for business bigly.
If we can get these two streams - Polar/Arctic and Southern - to align we'd be crying tears of joy!!
That is 1996 but rain!! argghh

[heehaw453]

Rb's video goes into great detail regarding an impactful storm (12/18-19 ish) and how the Euro is handling the long wave pattern which contributes to this setup. Euro is very bullish on a strong storm developing. About as bullish as it gets...

[MattyICE]

I’m hanging my hat on the idea that sometimes the models don’t “see” things well especially at range, and double especially during transitional periods. The models didn’t see well this MJO stall in unfavorable phases, but it happened. They didn’t seem to see well how anomalously strong the EAMT/PAC extension would be, but here it is. While my brain can’t get all the way to what RB lays down, I leave some room by asking myself what else the models don’t see well today, but may come suddenly into focus in the coming days just like the examples I lay out above. Now lately it seems like those factors have interfered more destructively rather than constructively wrt snow and cold chances in the east, but the optimist wants to believe there’s tricks out there yet to be played. Even if I’m wrong, I think it’s great to see juiced up storms even if warm. If we can get the overall waveguide to make the changes RB hints at, it’s game on for big game hunting for sure.

[amugs]

Great post by Niziol - shows how poorly sampled teh streams and vortices of energt are. Remmerb the massive cutter that the GSF and EURO had only to adjust oh about 1000 miles in 4 days time. Same may hold true with this.

The complexity of the atmosphere, forecasting days in advance is a HUGE challenge, here's the players for the coastal storm next week. That sneaky little feature in the Gulf could be KEY. ECMWF 00z 500mb Hgt/vort. #uncertainty @foxweather @spann pic.twitter.com/KgZ4ORpKuk

— Tom Niziol (@TomNiziol) December 12, 2023

[Irish]

Great post by Niziol - shows how poorly sampled teh streams and vortices of energt are. Remmerb the massive cutter that the GSF and EURO had only to adjust oh about 1000 miles in 4 days time. Same may hold true with this.

The complexity of the atmosphere, forecasting days in advance is a HUGE challenge, here's the players for the coastal storm next week. That sneaky little feature in the Gulf could be KEY. ECMWF 00z 500mb Hgt/vort. #uncertainty @foxweather @spann pic.twitter.com/KgZ4ORpKuk

— Tom Niziol (@TomNiziol) December 12, 2023

I assume that sneaky little feature in the Gulf will actually help our situation?

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