Re: Long Range Thread 27.0

[rb924119]

In my opinion, this is the GFS’ progressive bias on full display. Secondly, this is still within the window when models tend to “lose” storms only to bring them back a couple days later. As you said, synoptically, this setup looks really good to me, and that’s all I’m concerned with.

The GEM looks a bit better, but that has its own issues - as I mentioned yesterday, that now takes the low and mid-level circulations through PA/NY, which I feel is too far north. I like a blend between the GFS/GEM evolutions, with a track of the low and mid-level circulations through about northern Virginia/Maryland, and a sweet spot along the I-95 Corridor. As you mentioned yesterday, heehaw, the block is gaining amplitude, and you can see that in the run-to-run comparisons. Slow the flow, good things happen.

How much trouble will the coast have potentially? Not that it means much the NWS forecast says rain and snow likely for sat/sun. I hope we can cash in on something close to double digits too if that kind of total becomes clearer, of course I know the interior is always favored.

Do you mean “trouble” as in flooding? No more than your usual storm, which is minimal to none, outside of your usual trouble spots. Wind shouldn’t be terribly strong either.

[jmanley32]

I’ve been keeping tabs of the JAN 5th-10th period while honeymoonin’ and am excited by what I see. I may need to write up another blog to talk about the storm threat(s) that are out there. Thank you to others providing analysis. We finally have legitimate storms to track

Congrats, Frank take it from a man married 11 years Jan 11th (many on here likely many more). Pay attention to her (especially on your honeymoon!) not the weather lol, hopefully she digs weather like you do but this is a 1x trip that you will always remember as special time with her and many more to come but theres nothing like your honeymoon.

[jmanley32]

In my opinion, this is the GFS’ progressive bias on full display. Secondly, this is still within the window when models tend to “lose” storms only to bring them back a couple days later. As you said, synoptically, this setup looks really good to me, and that’s all I’m concerned with.

The GEM looks a bit better, but that has its own issues - as I mentioned yesterday, that now takes the low and mid-level circulations through PA/NY, which I feel is too far north. I like a blend between the GFS/GEM evolutions, with a track of the low and mid-level circulations through about northern Virginia/Maryland, and a sweet spot along the I-95 Corridor. As you mentioned yesterday, heehaw, the block is gaining amplitude, and you can see that in the run-to-run comparisons. Slow the flow, good things happen.

How much trouble will the coast have potentially? Not that it means much the NWS forecast says rain and snow likely for sat/sun. I hope we can cash in on something close to double digits too if that kind of total becomes clearer, of course I know the interior is always favored.

Do you mean “trouble” as in flooding? No more than your usual storm, which is minimal to none, outside of your usual trouble spots. Wind shouldn’t be terribly strong either.

No I mean getting snow vs. rain, so you think the coast will be all rain?

[rb924119]

In my opinion, this is the GFS’ progressive bias on full display. Secondly, this is still within the window when models tend to “lose” storms only to bring them back a couple days later. As you said, synoptically, this setup looks really good to me, and that’s all I’m concerned with.

The GEM looks a bit better, but that has its own issues - as I mentioned yesterday, that now takes the low and mid-level circulations through PA/NY, which I feel is too far north. I like a blend between the GFS/GEM evolutions, with a track of the low and mid-level circulations through about northern Virginia/Maryland, and a sweet spot along the I-95 Corridor. As you mentioned yesterday, heehaw, the block is gaining amplitude, and you can see that in the run-to-run comparisons. Slow the flow, good things happen.

How much trouble will the coast have potentially? Not that it means much the NWS forecast says rain and snow likely for sat/sun. I hope we can cash in on something close to double digits too if that kind of total becomes clearer, of course I know the interior is always favored.

Do you mean “trouble” as in flooding? No more than your usual storm, which is minimal to none, outside of your usual trouble spots. Wind shouldn’t be terribly strong either.

No I mean getting snow vs. rain, so you think the coast will be all rain?

Oo haha no, I do not think the coast will be all rain. I think the I-95 Corridor looks like a good place to be to get snow with this one, personally, as it stands now. Cape May/Ocean counties will probably see mostly rain, but I think for Monmouth County and points north and west look good for a mostly, or even an all-snow event. As for totals, obviously it’s early and I have to take a deeper look, but I think a general jackpot band of 8-14” centered on I-95 would be a reasonable guesstimate for now based on very high-level/brief overview.

[jmanley32]

In my opinion, this is the GFS’ progressive bias on full display. Secondly, this is still within the window when models tend to “lose” storms only to bring them back a couple days later. As you said, synoptically, this setup looks really good to me, and that’s all I’m concerned with.

The GEM looks a bit better, but that has its own issues - as I mentioned yesterday, that now takes the low and mid-level circulations through PA/NY, which I feel is too far north. I like a blend between the GFS/GEM evolutions, with a track of the low and mid-level circulations through about northern Virginia/Maryland, and a sweet spot along the I-95 Corridor. As you mentioned yesterday, heehaw, the block is gaining amplitude, and you can see that in the run-to-run comparisons. Slow the flow, good things happen.

How much trouble will the coast have potentially? Not that it means much the NWS forecast says rain and snow likely for sat/sun. I hope we can cash in on something close to double digits too if that kind of total becomes clearer, of course I know the interior is always favored.

Do you mean “trouble” as in flooding? No more than your usual storm, which is minimal to none, outside of your usual trouble spots. Wind shouldn’t be terribly strong either.

No I mean getting snow vs. rain, so you think the coast will be all rain?

Oo haha no, I do not think the coast will be all rain. I think the I-95 Corridor looks like a good place to be to get snow with this one, personally, as it stands now. Cape May/Ocean counties will probably see mostly rain, but I think for Monmouth County and points north and west look good for a mostly, or even an all-snow event. As for totals, obviously it’s early and I have to take a deeper look, but I think a general jackpot band of 8-14” centered on I-95 would be a reasonable guesstimate for now based on very high-level/brief overview.

Ok fwef, thought you understood what I meant by trouble on the coast and your responses sounded like your thought was rain. That would be impressive compared to what we have seen the past few years, even other years it took 3 or 4 storms to get that amount, if it does happen. I am still holding out until the end of the week to get excited, as we saw the models started their ebb and flow windshield wiper today at 12z, but I can see the reasoning and it did not seem that complex. Am I correct in saying this is not a thread the needle kind of event?

[rb924119]

Actually, the more I look at this, this looks like it could be more of a 12-18” / 14-20” event for those who are lucky enough to be in the right spot. Why? Well, at cursory glance, if this takes a track like I am expecting, the thermal profile should be PRIME for dendritic growth. Secondly, and this will require deeper digging on my end, but ratios to me look to average anywhere from about 15-20:1 with this storm. So, even though actual liquid equivalency will be between 1-1.5”, you can see how I’m getting the number mathematically. Lastly, this isn’t a classic “roll the system through” setup, meaning it’s not a situation where you have your storm and forcings just move through and it’s over. In this case, the storm is being forced to angle beneath the block. Basically, the mid-level energy and the storm gets squeezed between its normal forward motion and then getting squeezed/shunted southeastward as the block presses. What this does, is it stops the forward progress of the already negatively tilted trough, and then elongates it toward the southeast. As soon as it starts sliding southeast, as long as you’re north of the negatively tilted trough axis, you’re still going to be precipitating with decent forcing even though the surface low will be pulling away. On a radar, this present as a very long trailing comma head. This extended duration will just pile on. This actually is looking more and more like a big-ticket event to me.

[sroc4]

Ray this is guaranteed to happen for two reasons.

First is CP WILL NOT get sucked into this one. Because winter does not exist anymore.

And second I’m leaving for Florida Wednesday and will be flying home late Sunday.

Lock it in

[rb924119]

Every event is thread the needle if you get down to it, Jman, but in this case, we have a much bigger eye in the needle than we have in the past haha

[rb924119]

Ray this is guaranteed to happen for two reasons.

First is CP WILL NOT get sucked into this one. Because winter does not exist anymore.

And second I’m leaving for Florida Wednesday and will be flying home late Sunday.

Lock it in

3. We don’t have our fearless leader!


You heard it here first, folks! Hahaha

[rb924119]

12z Euro is what dreams are made of, btw lol I just saw it. Shift it maybe 30-50 miles further southeast and I like it. Ensembles should be fun……

[aiannone]

Can we axe the cutter that comes 2 days later to wash away our not yet existing snowpack lol

[rb924119]

Can we axe the cutter that comes 2 days later to wash away our not yet existing snowpack lol

Keep in mind, this upcoming potential storm started out looking the exact same way one at a time. Models DO NOT handle blocking patterns well.

HOLDDDDDDDDDDDDDDD!!!!

[aiannone]

Can we axe the cutter that comes 2 days later to wash away our not yet existing snowpack lol

Keep in mind, this upcoming potential storm started out looking the exact same way one  at a time. Models DO NOT handle blocking patterns well.

HOLDDDDDDDDDDDDDDD!!!!

LOL fair enough. I'll worry about storm 1 first. I told Scott I changed the oil in the snowblower yesterday. Hopefully I didn't jinx anything!

[jmanley32]

12z Euro is what dreams are made of, btw lol I just saw it. Shift it maybe 30-50 miles further southeast and I like it. Ensembles should be fun……

snow map or precip type in banter? All I can see is the tropical tidbits and it only shows green no snow depictions.

[rb924119]

HOLD ME……



The thing is, get this inside ten days and it will look even better - verbatim this is holding too much trough in the west. There should be more trough over the eastern U.S., more ridging in the PNA region. I am tempted to frame this, because this is special.

[rb924119]

This is actually reasonable:

[billg315]

Ok, I'll admit. For the first time in a long-time, I'm intrigued by this coming weekend system. lol. I do worry that the GFS has it sliding further south than the Euro and keeping the heaviest snow in the mid-Atlantic mostly to our south. The reason this worries me is ... it is a very El Nino type solution.

[amugs]

We have a 50/50 LP, and NAO Block. Teo massively key ingredients to a I95 Special. The synoptic set up is there. How the finer details work out remain to be seen BUT the winter snowstorm potential is high at this time.
Indices and pattern moving fwd are very good.
Remember I said I am not in the camp of no snow before 1-15.
Also we have a -EAMT and various modeled wave breaks in the NAO and EPO regions. If we get the PV involved then it has major potential for a winter stretch that has eluded our region for sometime.

[amugs]

[tomsriversnowstorm]

Actually the gfs was better for many in New Jersey.

quote="billg315"]Ok, I'll admit. For the first time in a long-time, I'm intrigued by this coming weekend system. lol. I do worry that the GFS has it sliding further south than the Euro and keeping the heaviest snow in the mid-Atlantic mostly to our south. The reason this worries me is ... it is a very El Nino type solution.[/quote]

[billg315]

Actually the gfs was better for many in New Jersey.

quote="billg315"]Ok, I'll admit. For the first time in a long-time, I'm intrigued by this coming weekend system. lol. I do worry that the GFS has it sliding further south than the Euro and keeping the heaviest snow in the mid-Atlantic mostly to our south. The reason this worries me is ... it is a very El Nino type solution.

[/quote]

Well yes, on the 12z GFS run if you live south of I-195 you’d get a couple inches of snow instead of mostly rain on the Euro. But if you live north of there you go from getting a foot on the Euro, to nothing on the GFS.

[tomsriversnowstorm]

So hence why I hope the gfs situation plays out.

If this should be in banter I apologize.

[rb924119]

Ok, I'll admit. For the first time in a long-time, I'm intrigued by this coming weekend system. lol. I do worry that the GFS has it sliding further south than the Euro and keeping the heaviest snow in the mid-Atlantic mostly to our south. The reason this worries me is ... it is a very El Nino type solution.

I wouldn’t worry too much for reasons already said. Honestly, the GFS is trash in my opinion. GEM and Euro and their respective ensembles are the way to go. The GFS Ensemble snowfall in this particular event looks better to me with respect to placement, but with respect to how it’s handling the overall pattern and its evolution, it’s struggling mightily.

[billg315]

Ok, I'll admit. For the first time in a long-time, I'm intrigued by this coming weekend system. lol. I do worry that the GFS has it sliding further south than the Euro and keeping the heaviest snow in the mid-Atlantic mostly to our south. The reason this worries me is ... it is a very El Nino type solution.

I wouldn’t worry too much for reasons already said. Honestly, the GFS is trash in my opinion. GEM and Euro and their respective ensembles are the way to go. The GFS Ensemble snowfall in this particular event looks better to me with respect to placement, but with respect to how it’s handling the overall pattern and its evolution, it’s struggling mightily.

Yes, there is a lot to like about this setup. And frankly it would be nice to have a good Gulf based coastal storm as opposed to the Miller Bs we’ve mostly dealt with in recent years. Hopefully we can reel this thing in. We need it. Desperately. lol.

[rb924119]

You can back off the ledge now, Bill, 18z GFS has come back toward reality lol

[heehaw453]

Actually, the more I look at this, this looks like it could be more of a 12-18” / 14-20” event for those who are lucky enough to be in the right spot. Why? Well, at cursory glance, if this takes a track like I am expecting, the thermal profile should be PRIME for dendritic growth. Secondly, and this will require deeper digging on my end, but ratios to me look to average anywhere from about 15-20:1 with this storm. So, even though actual liquid equivalency will be between 1-1.5”, you can see how I’m getting the number mathematically. Lastly, this isn’t a classic “roll the system through” setup, meaning it’s not a situation where you have your storm and forcings just move through and it’s over. In this case, the storm is being forced to angle beneath the block. Basically, the mid-level energy and the storm gets squeezed between its normal forward motion and then getting squeezed/shunted southeastward as the block presses. What this does, is it stops the forward progress of the already negatively tilted trough, and then elongates it toward the southeast. As soon as it starts sliding southeast, as long as you’re north of the negatively tilted trough axis, you’re still going to be precipitating with decent forcing even though the surface low will be pulling away. On a radar, this present as a very long trailing comma head. This extended duration will just pile on. This actually is looking more and more like a big-ticket event to me.

I'm in agreement with you Rb. I think this is potentially an 18 hour event for some folks. And some folks could pick up in excess of 1'. This is not a quick hitter scenario and that H pressure being stout and pinned has me very fired up about this potential. The southern origin storms are usually very juicy and once they re-dip their feet in the Atlantic they usually provide very robust qpf.

[sroc4]

Actually the gfs was better for many in New Jersey.

quote="billg315"]Ok, I'll admit. For the first time in a long-time, I'm intrigued by this coming weekend system. lol. I do worry that the GFS has it sliding further south than the Euro and keeping the heaviest snow in the mid-Atlantic mostly to our south. The reason this worries me is ... it is a very El Nino type solution.

[/quote]

As a general rule, even if you know nothing about the upper level maps at all, when looking at a surface map if you draw a line depicting the GFS's Low track, and drew the same line for the Europeans low track as the system exists and departs the coast you can give yourself a reasonable cone of uncertainty. Similar to what you might see from the NWS for a hurricane. The final track almost always falls somewhere inside that cone.

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