Re: Long Range Thread 27.0

[amugs]

Great post by Niziol - shows how poorly sampled teh streams and vortices of energt are. Remmerb the massive cutter that the GSF and EURO had only to adjust oh about 1000 miles in 4 days time. Same may hold true with this.

The complexity of the atmosphere, forecasting days in advance is a HUGE challenge, here's the players for the coastal storm next week. That sneaky little feature in the Gulf could be KEY. ECMWF 00z 500mb Hgt/vort. #uncertainty @foxweather @spann pic.twitter.com/KgZ4ORpKuk

— Tom Niziol (@TomNiziol) December 12, 2023

[Irish]

Great post by Niziol - shows how poorly sampled teh streams and vortices of energt are. Remmerb the massive cutter that the GSF and EURO had only to adjust oh about 1000 miles in 4 days time. Same may hold true with this.

The complexity of the atmosphere, forecasting days in advance is a HUGE challenge, here's the players for the coastal storm next week. That sneaky little feature in the Gulf could be KEY. ECMWF 00z 500mb Hgt/vort. #uncertainty @foxweather @spann pic.twitter.com/KgZ4ORpKuk

— Tom Niziol (@TomNiziol) December 12, 2023

I assume that sneaky little feature in the Gulf will actually help our situation?

[sroc4]

Great post by Niziol - shows how poorly sampled teh streams and vortices of energt are. Remmerb the massive cutter that the GSF and EURO had only to adjust oh about 1000 miles in 4 days time. Same may hold true with this.

The complexity of the atmosphere, forecasting days in advance is a HUGE challenge, here's the players for the coastal storm next week. That sneaky little feature in the Gulf could be KEY. ECMWF 00z 500mb Hgt/vort. #uncertainty @foxweather @spann pic.twitter.com/KgZ4ORpKuk

— Tom Niziol (@TomNiziol) December 12, 2023

Mugs. Does this guy say what door that key opens? Because there is nothing in that run that opens the door to cold air for this system, that gulf feature included.

[heehaw453]

Great post by Niziol - shows how poorly sampled teh streams and vortices of energt are. Remmerb the massive cutter that the GSF and EURO had only to adjust oh about 1000 miles in 4 days time. Same may hold true with this.

The complexity of the atmosphere, forecasting days in advance is a HUGE challenge, here's the players for the coastal storm next week. That sneaky little feature in the Gulf could be KEY. ECMWF 00z 500mb Hgt/vort. #uncertainty @foxweather @spann pic.twitter.com/KgZ4ORpKuk

— Tom Niziol (@TomNiziol) December 12, 2023

Mugs.  Does this guy say what door that key opens?  Because there is nothing in that run that opens the door to cold air for this system, that gulf feature included.
 

There's not much resistance to the southern stream warmth as modelled. This is D4 (first picture). If you have fresh injection setup with banana H as the storm is coming up the coast (first picture) then nice but watch H slide quickly (second picture) and then it's southern warmth pumped up the pike. Without the AO/NAO being favorable those H's tend to be weaker and transitory.

[amugs]

Great post by Niziol - shows how poorly sampled teh streams and vortices of energt are. Remmerb the massive cutter that the GSF and EURO had only to adjust oh about 1000 miles in 4 days time. Same may hold true with this.

The complexity of the atmosphere, forecasting days in advance is a HUGE challenge, here's the players for the coastal storm next week. That sneaky little feature in the Gulf could be KEY. ECMWF 00z 500mb Hgt/vort. #uncertainty @foxweather @spann pic.twitter.com/KgZ4ORpKuk

— Tom Niziol (@TomNiziol) December 12, 2023

Mugs.  Does this guy say what door that key opens?  Because there is nothing in that run that opens the door to cold air for this system, that gulf feature included.
 

Good question I'll ask him

[amugs]

Great post by Niziol - shows how poorly sampled teh streams and vortices of energt are. Remmerb the massive cutter that the GSF and EURO had only to adjust oh about 1000 miles in 4 days time. Same may hold true with this.

The complexity of the atmosphere, forecasting days in advance is a HUGE challenge, here's the players for the coastal storm next week. That sneaky little feature in the Gulf could be KEY. ECMWF 00z 500mb Hgt/vort. #uncertainty @foxweather @spann pic.twitter.com/KgZ4ORpKuk

— Tom Niziol (@TomNiziol) December 12, 2023

Mugs.  Does this guy say what door that key opens?  Because there is nothing in that run that opens the door to cold air for this system, that gulf feature included.
 

Good question I'll ask him

He's saying interior, mountain snows.

[Irish]

Fixed

[MattyICE]

Well. I’m mobile and cannot post a map. But the 12z Euro looks to have at least tapped a smidge into RB’s thoughts for next week. The northern stream vort does dig more and come slightly closer to a phase. A few more adjustments like that (assuming other factors stay the same) and it could get interesting.

[amugs]

Well. I’m mobile and cannot post a map. But the 12z Euro looks to have at least tapped a smidge into RB’s thoughts for next week. The northern stream vort does dig more and come slightly closer to a phase. A few more adjustments like that (assuming other factors stay the same) and it could get interesting.

I just saw this as well. 
Would be a major feather in Rb's head dress that is already King Met Snow Lion!!

Also is that a 50/50 low developing??
If so that'd be huge

[Irish]

Well. I’m mobile and cannot post a map. But the 12z Euro looks to have at least tapped a smidge into RB’s thoughts for next week. The northern stream vort does dig more and come slightly closer to a phase. A few more adjustments like that (assuming other factors stay the same) and it could get interesting.

I just saw this as well. 
Would be a major feather in Rb's head dress that is already King Met Snow Lion!!

Also is that a 50/50 low developing??
If so that'd be huge

I'm not sure if any more feathers can fit in his headdress but we'd certainly be adding one! Hope he's right!

[rb924119]

In addendum to the above, the modeling is not going to be able to accurately reflect the dynamics in play at this stage, so aspects such as dynamical cooling, as well as the scope and intensity of the precipitation shield, won't really be "seen" yet, especially by lower-resolution ensembles. However, this is part of the reason why I think we start to see the models "trend" to a bigger snow threat in coming runs.

Great job and highly appreciated! Very comprehensive and sound reasoning. I'm too old school in my thoughts. I'm one of those that need to see a big dome of cold air in place kind of folks. I do agree with you n/s injection of the cold air could trend this colder but I think for sig snow threat that'd benefit folks deeper into NY State and CNE/NNE. If we had a fresh injection of cold before this thing arrived I'd be on board for more of the immediate area. But you definitely have my interest piqued.

Thanks, heehaw!

I totally understand your point of view, as I agree lol but I think this will be a case when we end up in a situation such that the cold air arrives as the precipitation comes in. I do agree, though, the interior is certainly favored, but I am not discounting the coast at all, as I think if this plays how I see it, the coast would get in on classic wrap-around snow as the storm occludes just to the east/southeast.

[jmanley32]

Looks like a big storm is evolving, sorry rb do not have time to watch the video but I read your synopsis and I hope you are right that Euro run posted above if it was cold would be the B word, but as shown now its a flooding high wind event but wow 967mb thats impressive, interesting that the winds on that wind map are not higher than the last system which was not nearly as intense. We will see, not taking this in either direction yet, anyone could be right and time will tell. Lets track!

[jmanley32]

Rb's video goes into great detail regarding an impactful storm (12/18-19 ish) and how the Euro is handling the long wave pattern which contributes to this setup. Euro is very bullish on a strong storm developing. About as bullish as it gets...

Looks like this has potential even if not a snowstorm (which we all hope it is) to be much more impactful for most than Sundays non-event if the Euro is correct. I do however recall earlier this year that it was said the Euro has been losing some credibility, does that still hold true?

[rb924119]

In addendum to the above, the modeling is not going to be able to accurately reflect the dynamics in play at this stage, so aspects such as dynamical cooling, as well as the scope and intensity of the precipitation shield, won't really be "seen" yet, especially by lower-resolution ensembles. However, this is part of the reason why I think we start to see the models "trend" to a bigger snow threat in coming runs.

Great job and highly appreciated! Very comprehensive and sound reasoning. I'm too old school in my thoughts. I'm one of those that need to see a big dome of cold air in place kind of folks. I do agree with you n/s injection of the cold air could trend this colder but I think for sig snow threat that'd benefit folks deeper into NY State and CNE/NNE. If we had a fresh injection of cold before this thing arrived I'd be on board for more of the immediate area. But you definitely have my interest piqued.

Ray I have not had a chance to watch the video yet to hear the details, but since you mention things like dynamic cooling and scope and intensity of precip shield etc. I have to throw my two cents in.  First let me lead with what Im about to say is about as general a statement as possible since we all know anything that involves any sort of surface details at this lead time is almost entirely useless.  

That said there has to be a huge fundamental shift in how the modeling is being handled, operational and ensembles alike, regarding the 500mb set up for this.  As it stands now this system comes up and is 100% southern stream.  And because it is so amped up from its inception in the SW CONUS, the southern energy that will give birth to this threat, as it traverses the southern tear pf the country, raises heights out ahead with exceptional voracity.   This not only resuts in a very warm antecedant air mass well into NE, but also raises dew points exceptionally high throughout NE.  As it stands now as the system reaches our latitude there isnt a below freezing DP in the the NE USA, making any discussion about dynamic cooling regardless of how intense the precip banding becomes pretty much a mute point for most of the area.    On top of that the 850-925mb level are torched.





Now again do not think for a second I dont recognize that the details of the three images I just showed wont change, but the point Im trying to make is that fundamentally unless we see a major shift in how these models are handling the 500mb pattern north of the boarder even if this trends cooler it wont be enough for 98% of the people on this board.  Without a linkage with the northern stream min 24hrs earlier this will remain warm for pretty much all.  That said it does appear that on the ensembles there has been a slow trend towards closer interactions between the N and S streams, but there is still a very long way to go.

I don’t disagree with anything you said here, brother. But I think when you watch my video, it’ll all make sense. In short, I think that we will see a much sooner, stronger interaction with incoming northern stream energy, which will not only work to amp up our storm even more, but also deliver fresh cold air and low-level nigh pressure to the west, northwest, and north of the bombing cyclone as it moves up the coast. This would only help to deliver cold air more efficiently to the system. Anyway, I am curious to hear your thoughts after you watch haha

[rb924119]

I’m hanging my hat on the idea that sometimes the models don’t “see” things well especially at range, and double especially during transitional periods. The models didn’t see well this MJO stall in unfavorable phases, but it happened. They didn’t seem to see well how anomalously strong the EAMT/PAC extension would be, but here it is. While my brain can’t get all the way to what RB lays down, I leave some room by asking myself what else the models don’t see well today, but may come suddenly into focus in the coming days just like the examples I lay out above. Now lately it seems like those factors have interfered more destructively rather than constructively wrt snow and cold chances in the east, but the optimist wants to believe there’s tricks out there yet to be played. Even if I’m wrong, I think it’s great to see juiced up storms even if warm. If we can get the overall waveguide to make the changes RB hints at, it’s game on for big game hunting for sure.

You and me are both hanging out hats on the same rack haha only thing I’d like to say is that I wouldn’t say that the MJO stalled, but it definitely did maintain a bit more amplitude than I thought it would through Phase 4. Hat tip to Scott for cautioning against the earlier decay, as per my ideas, and I think the blend of our discussions verified quite nicely. That said, it’s going to decay now and become a non-factor for our next storm. Down the road, though, it should become our friend and gain significant amplitude into Phases 8-1-2, and then start fading again into Phase 3. That’s a discussion for a separate post though haha

But yeah, I think subsequent model runs should be interesting, at the very least. We’ll see haha

[rb924119]

Great post by Niziol - shows how poorly sampled teh streams and vortices of energt are. Remmerb the massive cutter that the GSF and EURO had only to adjust oh about 1000 miles in 4 days time. Same may hold true with this.

The complexity of the atmosphere, forecasting days in advance is a HUGE challenge, here's the players for the coastal storm next week. That sneaky little feature in the Gulf could be KEY. ECMWF 00z 500mb Hgt/vort. #uncertainty @foxweather @spann pic.twitter.com/KgZ4ORpKuk

— Tom Niziol (@TomNiziol) December 12, 2023

It will definitely help energize the developing storm and create more headaches for the Southeast, but with respect to the overall evolution, I don’t think that little piece of vorticity has much impact.just my opinion, though.

[rb924119]

Great post by Niziol - shows how poorly sampled teh streams and vortices of energt are. Remmerb the massive cutter that the GSF and EURO had only to adjust oh about 1000 miles in 4 days time. Same may hold true with this.

The complexity of the atmosphere, forecasting days in advance is a HUGE challenge, here's the players for the coastal storm next week. That sneaky little feature in the Gulf could be KEY. ECMWF 00z 500mb Hgt/vort. #uncertainty @foxweather @spann pic.twitter.com/KgZ4ORpKuk

— Tom Niziol (@TomNiziol) December 12, 2023

Mugs.  Does this guy say what door that key opens?  Because there is nothing in that run that opens the door to cold air for this system, that gulf feature included.
 

There's not much resistance to the southern stream warmth as modelled. This is D4 (first picture). If you have fresh injection setup with banana H as the storm is coming up the coast (first picture) then nice but watch H slide quickly (second picture) and then it's southern warmth pumped up the pike. Without the AO/NAO being favorable those H's tend to be weaker and transitory.

Good post. But I think there will be a second high crashing southeastward to the northwest of the storm. As a result, that should sever the connection with the frontal feature east of Hudson Bay, and once that happens, you cut the southerly flow. Additionally, as that connection severs and higher pressure starts to bridge the gap between the new incoming high and the departing Atlantic high, you have a background state evolving such that you’d have strong ageostrophic flow working to start “advect” cold air into the system relative to the situation.

[rb924119]

Well. I’m mobile and cannot post a map. But the 12z Euro looks to have at least tapped a smidge into RB’s thoughts for next week. The northern stream vort does dig more and come slightly closer to a phase. A few more adjustments like that (assuming other factors stay the same) and it could get interesting.

I just saw this as well. 
Would be a major feather in Rb's head dress that is already King Met Snow Lion!!

Also is that a 50/50 low developing??
If so that'd be huge

I'm not sure if any more feathers can fit in his headdress but we'd certainly be adding one!  Hope he's right!

Always room for improvement, Irish haha I definitely appreciate the compliment, but there are several very good forecasters here besides me

[rb924119]

Well. I’m mobile and cannot post a map. But the 12z Euro looks to have at least tapped a smidge into RB’s thoughts for next week. The northern stream vort does dig more and come slightly closer to a phase. A few more adjustments like that (assuming other factors stay the same) and it could get interesting.

I just saw this as well. 
Would be a major feather in Rb's head dress that is already King Met Snow Lion!!

Also is that a 50/50 low developing??
If so that'd be huge

Thanks, mugsy, but I’m no king haha just another weather nut like the rest of us

As for the 50/50, we may not get it, but the overall idea of a pseudo -NAO is the same.

[rb924119]

Rb's video goes into great detail regarding an impactful storm (12/18-19 ish) and how the Euro is handling the long wave pattern which contributes to this setup. Euro is very bullish on a strong storm developing. About as bullish as it gets...

Looks like this has potential even if not a snowstorm (which we all hope it is) to be much more impactful for most than Sundays non-event if the Euro is correct. I do however recall earlier this year that it was said the Euro has been losing some credibility, does that still hold true?

It’s not what it used to be five years ago, but every storm is different. You just have to look at the pattern and see if the model’s projections make sense. In this, my personal opinion is that it’s handling things the best right now. But, I could be wrong.

[rb924119]

Somebody said that they couldn’t view my video after five minutes in……did you get it to work? I can try another method if it’s still not working. Just let me know!

[Irish]

Somebody said that they couldn’t view my video after five minutes in……did you get it to work? I can try another method if it’s still not working. Just let me know!

That was me and after a reload, it worked just fine. Awesome video, that I mostly understood.

[rb924119]

Somebody said that they couldn’t view my video after five minutes in……did you get it to work? I can try another method if it’s still not working. Just let me know!

That was me and after a reload, it worked just fine. Awesome video, that I mostly understood.

Ok, good!

[amugs]

Great video Rb. Learned alot from you and love the optimism. Thanks for taking the time to do this and share it.

This is interesting.

[sroc4]

In addendum to the above, the modeling is not going to be able to accurately reflect the dynamics in play at this stage, so aspects such as dynamical cooling, as well as the scope and intensity of the precipitation shield, won't really be "seen" yet, especially by lower-resolution ensembles. However, this is part of the reason why I think we start to see the models "trend" to a bigger snow threat in coming runs.

Great job and highly appreciated! Very comprehensive and sound reasoning. I'm too old school in my thoughts. I'm one of those that need to see a big dome of cold air in place kind of folks. I do agree with you n/s injection of the cold air could trend this colder but I think for sig snow threat that'd benefit folks deeper into NY State and CNE/NNE. If we had a fresh injection of cold before this thing arrived I'd be on board for more of the immediate area. But you definitely have my interest piqued.

Ray I have not had a chance to watch the video yet to hear the details, but since you mention things like dynamic cooling and scope and intensity of precip shield etc. I have to throw my two cents in.  First let me lead with what Im about to say is about as general a statement as possible since we all know anything that involves any sort of surface details at this lead time is almost entirely useless.  

That said there has to be a huge fundamental shift in how the modeling is being handled, operational and ensembles alike, regarding the 500mb set up for this.  As it stands now this system comes up and is 100% southern stream.  And because it is so amped up from its inception in the SW CONUS, the southern energy that will give birth to this threat, as it traverses the southern tear pf the country, raises heights out ahead with exceptional voracity.   This not only resuts in a very warm antecedant air mass well into NE, but also raises dew points exceptionally high throughout NE.  As it stands now as the system reaches our latitude there isnt a below freezing DP in the the NE USA, making any discussion about dynamic cooling regardless of how intense the precip banding becomes pretty much a mute point for most of the area.    On top of that the 850-925mb level are torched.





Now again do not think for a second I dont recognize that the details of the three images I just showed wont change, but the point Im trying to make is that fundamentally unless we see a major shift in how these models are handling the 500mb pattern north of the boarder even if this trends cooler it wont be enough for 98% of the people on this board.  Without a linkage with the northern stream min 24hrs earlier this will remain warm for pretty much all.  That said it does appear that on the ensembles there has been a slow trend towards closer interactions between the N and S streams, but there is still a very long way to go.

I don’t disagree with anything you said here, brother. But I think when you watch my video, it’ll all make sense. In short, I think that we will see a much sooner, stronger interaction with incoming northern stream energy, which will not only work to amp up our storm even more, but also deliver fresh cold air and low-level nigh pressure to the west, northwest, and north of the bombing cyclone as it moves up the coast. This would only help to deliver cold air more efficiently to the system. Anyway, I am curious to hear your thoughts after you watch haha

Great Video Ray. I finally had a chance to listen. You make a few Very interesting points. Particularly when you discuss how the ridging north of 40n since it all connects adds momentum on the N side and takes momentum away along the subtropic side. This is an interesting mechanism as to how things slow down a bit. I am still not sold however on the idea as a whole that the northern energy will be enough because when you start to zoom in on the N hemisphere anomaly maps, even simply the N American view you realize there is nuance.  My contention is that extremely strong northern Jet is the door shut to the cold air and it’s my opinion that there won’t be enough to open the door enough to allow the cold air in. I don’t doubt that the models will trend colder but I’m not ready to buy into the idea of anywhere further s and e than the map I drew with the prev storm gets in on meaningful action. But again great video and thank you for taking that time. I learn something new every time.

[rb924119]

Synopsis of 00z runs so far: GFS is too high and tight with the storm track, should be further southeast. GEM verbatim arguably is the width of a wheaties flake away from one of the biggest snow storms we could ever see, especially for the interior lol I’ll take it!

[rb924119]

In addendum to the above, the modeling is not going to be able to accurately reflect the dynamics in play at this stage, so aspects such as dynamical cooling, as well as the scope and intensity of the precipitation shield, won't really be "seen" yet, especially by lower-resolution ensembles. However, this is part of the reason why I think we start to see the models "trend" to a bigger snow threat in coming runs.

Great job and highly appreciated! Very comprehensive and sound reasoning. I'm too old school in my thoughts. I'm one of those that need to see a big dome of cold air in place kind of folks. I do agree with you n/s injection of the cold air could trend this colder but I think for sig snow threat that'd benefit folks deeper into NY State and CNE/NNE. If we had a fresh injection of cold before this thing arrived I'd be on board for more of the immediate area. But you definitely have my interest piqued.

Ray I have not had a chance to watch the video yet to hear the details, but since you mention things like dynamic cooling and scope and intensity of precip shield etc. I have to throw my two cents in.  First let me lead with what Im about to say is about as general a statement as possible since we all know anything that involves any sort of surface details at this lead time is almost entirely useless.  

That said there has to be a huge fundamental shift in how the modeling is being handled, operational and ensembles alike, regarding the 500mb set up for this.  As it stands now this system comes up and is 100% southern stream.  And because it is so amped up from its inception in the SW CONUS, the southern energy that will give birth to this threat, as it traverses the southern tear pf the country, raises heights out ahead with exceptional voracity.   This not only resuts in a very warm antecedant air mass well into NE, but also raises dew points exceptionally high throughout NE.  As it stands now as the system reaches our latitude there isnt a below freezing DP in the the NE USA, making any discussion about dynamic cooling regardless of how intense the precip banding becomes pretty much a mute point for most of the area.    On top of that the 850-925mb level are torched.





Now again do not think for a second I dont recognize that the details of the three images I just showed wont change, but the point Im trying to make is that fundamentally unless we see a major shift in how these models are handling the 500mb pattern north of the boarder even if this trends cooler it wont be enough for 98% of the people on this board.  Without a linkage with the northern stream min 24hrs earlier this will remain warm for pretty much all.  That said it does appear that on the ensembles there has been a slow trend towards closer interactions between the N and S streams, but there is still a very long way to go.

I don’t disagree with anything you said here, brother. But I think when you watch my video, it’ll all make sense. In short, I think that we will see a much sooner, stronger interaction with incoming northern stream energy, which will not only work to amp up our storm even more, but also deliver fresh cold air and low-level nigh pressure to the west, northwest, and north of the bombing cyclone as it moves up the coast. This would only help to deliver cold air more efficiently to the system. Anyway, I am curious to hear your thoughts after you watch haha

Great Video Ray. I finally had a chance to listen. You make a few Very interesting points. Particularly when you discuss how the ridging north of 40n since it all connects adds momentum on the N side and takes momentum away along the subtropic side. This is an interesting mechanism as to how things slow down a bit. I am still not sold however on the idea as a whole that the northern energy will be enough because when you start to zoom in on the N hemisphere anomaly maps, even simply the N American view you realize there is nuance.  My contention is that extremely strong northern Jet is the door shut to the cold air and it’s my opinion that there won’t be enough to open the door enough to allow the cold air in. I don’t doubt that the models will trend colder but I’m not ready to buy into the idea of anywhere further s and e than the map I drew with the prev storm gets in on meaningful action. But again great video and thank you for taking that time. I learn something new every time.

Thanks, brother Scott! You may very well be right, only time is going to tell us haha forecasting is largely subjective to begin with, and based on the most recent guidance, you’re right to say that there isn’t really any cold air close by. My whole thing is trying to predict where the modeling (and therefore, the end result) is going to end up. And in most cases, the strong northern jet usually is a killer, but in this case, I think it’s the opposite. It’s gonna be fun to track for sure, and I’m definitely looking forward to the discussion as subsequent runs come in!

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