Re: Long Range Thread 27.0

[heehaw453]

Actually, the more I look at this, this looks like it could be more of a 12-18” / 14-20” event for those who are lucky enough to be in the right spot. Why? Well, at cursory glance, if this takes a track like I am expecting, the thermal profile should be PRIME for dendritic growth. Secondly, and this will require deeper digging on my end, but ratios to me look to average anywhere from about 15-20:1 with this storm. So, even though actual liquid equivalency will be between 1-1.5”, you can see how I’m getting the number mathematically. Lastly, this isn’t a classic “roll the system through” setup, meaning it’s not a situation where you have your storm and forcings just move through and it’s over. In this case, the storm is being forced to angle beneath the block. Basically, the mid-level energy and the storm gets squeezed between its normal forward motion and then getting squeezed/shunted southeastward as the block presses. What this does, is it stops the forward progress of the already negatively tilted trough, and then elongates it toward the southeast. As soon as it starts sliding southeast, as long as you’re north of the negatively tilted trough axis, you’re still going to be precipitating with decent forcing even though the surface low will be pulling away. On a radar, this present as a very long trailing comma head. This extended duration will just pile on. This actually is looking more and more like a big-ticket event to me.

I'm in agreement with you Rb. I think this is potentially an 18 hour event for some folks. And some folks could pick up in excess of 1'. This is not a quick hitter scenario and that H pressure being stout and pinned has me very fired up about this potential. The southern origin storms are usually very juicy and once they re-dip their feet in the Atlantic they usually provide very robust qpf.

[sroc4]

Actually the gfs was better for many in New Jersey.

quote="billg315"]Ok, I'll admit. For the first time in a long-time, I'm intrigued by this coming weekend system. lol. I do worry that the GFS has it sliding further south than the Euro and keeping the heaviest snow in the mid-Atlantic mostly to our south. The reason this worries me is ... it is a very El Nino type solution.

[/quote]

As a general rule, even if you know nothing about the upper level maps at all, when looking at a surface map if you draw a line depicting the GFS's Low track, and drew the same line for the Europeans low track as the system exists and departs the coast you can give yourself a reasonable cone of uncertainty. Similar to what you might see from the NWS for a hurricane. The final track almost always falls somewhere inside that cone.

[heehaw453]

18Z GFS extremely moist system. Those darker blues in the Atlantic are not something you see all the time. Like a n/s system nope...

[sroc4]

Actually, the more I look at this, this looks like it could be more of a 12-18” / 14-20” event for those who are lucky enough to be in the right spot. Why? Well, at cursory glance, if this takes a track like I am expecting, the thermal profile should be PRIME for dendritic growth. Secondly, and this will require deeper digging on my end, but ratios to me look to average anywhere from about 15-20:1 with this storm. So, even though actual liquid equivalency will be between 1-1.5”, you can see how I’m getting the number mathematically. Lastly, this isn’t a classic “roll the system through” setup, meaning it’s not a situation where you have your storm and forcings just move through and it’s over. In this case, the storm is being forced to angle beneath the block. Basically, the mid-level energy and the storm gets squeezed between its normal forward motion and then getting squeezed/shunted southeastward as the block presses. What this does, is it stops the forward progress of the already negatively tilted trough, and then elongates it toward the southeast. As soon as it starts sliding southeast, as long as you’re north of the negatively tilted trough axis, you’re still going to be precipitating with decent forcing even though the surface low will be pulling away. On a radar, this present as a very long trailing comma head. This extended duration will just pile on. This actually is looking more and more like a big-ticket event to me.

I'm in agreement with you Rb. I think this is potentially an 18 hour event for some folks. And some folks could pick up in excess of 1'. This is not a quick hitter scenario and that H pressure being stout and pinned has me very fired up about this potential. The southern origin storms are usually very juicy and once they re-dip their feet in the Atlantic they usually provide very robust qpf.

And not to get too far ahead of ourselves too, but  I briefly looked at the upper levels 200-300mb and there is a dual jet structure that could add another hidden element of surprise in the positive direction.

And that HP on the 18z GFS doesnt budge throughout the event. On top of that it also got stronger as the Low heads off the coast. There is def alot to like here, but not ready to sound the alarm bells just yet.

[sroc4]

[rb924119]

Actually, the more I look at this, this looks like it could be more of a 12-18” / 14-20” event for those who are lucky enough to be in the right spot. Why? Well, at cursory glance, if this takes a track like I am expecting, the thermal profile should be PRIME for dendritic growth. Secondly, and this will require deeper digging on my end, but ratios to me look to average anywhere from about 15-20:1 with this storm. So, even though actual liquid equivalency will be between 1-1.5”, you can see how I’m getting the number mathematically. Lastly, this isn’t a classic “roll the system through” setup, meaning it’s not a situation where you have your storm and forcings just move through and it’s over. In this case, the storm is being forced to angle beneath the block. Basically, the mid-level energy and the storm gets squeezed between its normal forward motion and then getting squeezed/shunted southeastward as the block presses. What this does, is it stops the forward progress of the already negatively tilted trough, and then elongates it toward the southeast. As soon as it starts sliding southeast, as long as you’re north of the negatively tilted trough axis, you’re still going to be precipitating with decent forcing even though the surface low will be pulling away. On a radar, this present as a very long trailing comma head. This extended duration will just pile on. This actually is looking more and more like a big-ticket event to me.

I'm in agreement with you Rb. I think this is potentially an 18 hour event for some folks. And some folks could pick up in excess of 1'. This is not a quick hitter scenario and that H pressure being stout and pinned has me very fired up about this potential. The southern origin storms are usually very juicy and once they re-dip their feet in the Atlantic they usually provide very robust qpf.

Yup, agreed on all points. My source for a “secret weapon” of forecasting has some sort of issue with his links, and I can’t find my standard PWAT anomalies map, so I have to try to find a new one. But you’re right; this thing coming directly out of the Gulf plus Atlantic feed and it’s only producing ~1” QPF? Doesn’t add up, as it should be wetter than that.

[heehaw453]

I'm not starting the thread on this one. Maybe wait another 24-36 hours or so? Thoughts?

[kalleg]

Took 110 years to break the record, did it in 2023 with barely anything on the ground--I saw only a whisper of white in New Hope, early one morning a couple of weeks ago...
Am so looking forward to all that's showing up as coming our way this year!

[rb924119]

Actually, the more I look at this, this looks like it could be more of a 12-18” / 14-20” event for those who are lucky enough to be in the right spot. Why? Well, at cursory glance, if this takes a track like I am expecting, the thermal profile should be PRIME for dendritic growth. Secondly, and this will require deeper digging on my end, but ratios to me look to average anywhere from about 15-20:1 with this storm. So, even though actual liquid equivalency will be between 1-1.5”, you can see how I’m getting the number mathematically. Lastly, this isn’t a classic “roll the system through” setup, meaning it’s not a situation where you have your storm and forcings just move through and it’s over. In this case, the storm is being forced to angle beneath the block. Basically, the mid-level energy and the storm gets squeezed between its normal forward motion and then getting squeezed/shunted southeastward as the block presses. What this does, is it stops the forward progress of the already negatively tilted trough, and then elongates it toward the southeast. As soon as it starts sliding southeast, as long as you’re north of the negatively tilted trough axis, you’re still going to be precipitating with decent forcing even though the surface low will be pulling away. On a radar, this present as a very long trailing comma head. This extended duration will just pile on. This actually is looking more and more like a big-ticket event to me.

I'm in agreement with you Rb. I think this is potentially an 18 hour event for some folks. And some folks could pick up in excess of 1'. This is not a quick hitter scenario and that H pressure being stout and pinned has me very fired up about this potential. The southern origin storms are usually very juicy and once they re-dip their feet in the Atlantic they usually provide very robust qpf.

And not to get too far ahead of ourselves too, but  I briefly looked at the upper levels 200-300mb and there is a dual jet structure that could add another hidden element of surprise in the positive direction.

And that HP on the 18z GFS doesnt budge throughout the event.  On top of that it also got stronger as the Low heads off the coast.  There is def alot to like here, but not ready to sound the alarm bells just yet.  

Yeah, I saw that too, and honestly, with how negative the trough is, I think that northern jet should expand further west than your image depicts verbatim

[jmanley32]

I'm not starting the thread on this one. Maybe wait another 24-36 hours or so? Thoughts?

We are within 5-6 days I would say a thread as we are tracking a specific system and I would not call this LR per se more like mid-range. But up to you guys. I think it will help when seeing if someone is posting about the possible storm versus LR stuff.

[rb924119]

I'm not starting the thread on this one. Maybe wait another 24-36 hours or so? Thoughts?

Personally I think we can start one now, as the discussion is biasing toward this threat now, but, I’ll leave the decision up to the powers that be, because I’m fine with either decision haha

[rb924119]

Took 110 years to break the record, did it in 2023 with barely anything on the ground--I saw only a whisper of white in New Hope, early one morning a couple of weeks ago...
Am so looking forward to all that's showing up as coming our way this year!

You know why they keep records, right?

[dsix85]

Posted earlier today, got lost in the excitement. Are we approaching an astronomical high tide this weekend? Often that enhances these events, correct?

[rb924119]

Posted earlier today, got lost in the excitement. Are we approaching an astronomical high tide this weekend? Often that enhances these events, correct?

Sorry, dsix. It looks like we will be between 3/4 and a new moon, so not great, but at least a new moon is slightly better than a full moon. That said, I don’t expect this to be a big flood threat, as the surface feature will continue progressing, it’s the mid and upper-level features that will lag behind. So the duration of onshore wind will be limited. And with most places, I think snow will be favored over rain. So the flood risk should be pretty minimal to none, unless you’re in a flood prone area of coastal southern New Jersey (if this evolves as I expect).

[sroc4]

I'm not starting the thread on this one. Maybe wait another 24-36 hours or so? Thoughts?

Personally I think we can start one now, as the discussion is biasing toward this threat now, but, I’ll leave the decision up to the powers that be, because I’m fine with either decision haha

Not yet. Just wait. If Frank wants to do it then so be it. But I say we take this threat over into the Jan obvs thread starting tomorrow morning, and then discuss anything that goes on from next Monday on here in the LR. Call it superstitious but.....Im superstitious. Giving it a separate thread is like talking about a no hitter in the 7th inning. We all know what's at stake here. lol

[rb924119]

I'm not starting the thread on this one. Maybe wait another 24-36 hours or so? Thoughts?

Personally I think we can start one now, as the discussion is biasing toward this threat now, but, I’ll leave the decision up to the powers that be, because I’m fine with either decision haha

Not yet.  Just wait.  If Frank wants to do it then so be it.  But I say we take this threat over into the Jan obvs thread starting tomorrow morning, and then discuss anything that goes on from next Monday on here in the LR.  Call it superstitious but.....Im superstitious.  Giving it a separate thread is like talking about a no hitter in the 7th inning.  We all know what's at stake here. lol  

That’s fine - gives us more time to prepare the sacrifice and prayer to the pagan snow gods lmao

[sroc4]

I'm not starting the thread on this one. Maybe wait another 24-36 hours or so? Thoughts?

Personally I think we can start one now, as the discussion is biasing toward this threat now, but, I’ll leave the decision up to the powers that be, because I’m fine with either decision haha

Not yet.  Just wait.  If Frank wants to do it then so be it.  But I say we take this threat over into the Jan obvs thread starting tomorrow morning, and then discuss anything that goes on from next Monday on here in the LR.  Call it superstitious but.....Im superstitious.  Giving it a separate thread is like talking about a no hitter in the 7th inning.  We all know what's at stake here. lol  

That’s fine - gives us more time to prepare the sacrifice and prayer to the pagan snow gods  lmao

LOL  And for Janet(Dunnzoo) to get the ice cubes in the back of her toilets....

[rb924119]

LMAO!! I forgot about that hahaha

[MattyICE]

I LOVE this set up for a few reasons. One is that we aren’t talking about a delicate phasing situation here. I also like the concept of a southern storm gaining latitude and running into the confluence in SE Canada. In some cases there is a fear that a southern vort can really juice up especially in an El Niño and bring temp issues but for NOW, the vort strength AND confluence seem to be trending positively in tandem with each other so a stronger storm doesn’t have to mean that, rather it enhances snowfall even more between those two features. Which is where a lot of us live! And the crappy west/pac also limits the northern extent of the southern Low. I’m not thrilled that this has to hold 2 more days to really lock in, but imo these setups are a little more “stable” to track with fewer wide run to run swings. This is ALSO a setup than CAN lead to prolific snow totals. Tons to be excited about but if that 50/50 finds a way to bleed east which we have seen happen (or something g like that) then the setup is changed. As is, a lot more wiggle room than many of our nail-biter, delicate set-ups.

[rb924119]

God, I love the happy hour GFS lol

[rb924119]

I LOVE this set up for a few reasons. One is that we aren’t talking about a delicate phasing situation here. I also like the concept of a southern storm gaining latitude and running into the confluence in SE Canada. In some cases there is a fear that a southern vort can really juice up especially in an El Niño and bring temp issues but for NOW, the vort strength AND confluence seem to be trending positively in tandem with each other so a stronger storm doesn’t have to mean that, rather it enhances snowfall even more between those two features. Which is where a lot of us live!  And the crappy west/pac also limits the northern extent of the southern Low. I’m not thrilled that this has to hold 2 more days to really lock in, but imo these setups are a little more “stable” to track with fewer wide run to run swings. This is ALSO a setup than CAN lead to prolific snow totals. Tons to be excited about but if that 50/50 finds a way to bleed east which we have seen happen (or something g like that) then the setup is changed. As is, a lot more wiggle room than many of our nail-biter, delicate set-ups.

Again, just like with the December 18th-20th event, the overall progression should slow relative to “averages”, as well as amplify. As you said, there’s a lot of wiggle room with this, but I don’t think we will need it. I think the only way this could really change is for the better. And I think it will.

[nutleyblizzard]

I LOVE this set up for a few reasons. One is that we aren’t talking about a delicate phasing situation here. I also like the concept of a southern storm gaining latitude and running into the confluence in SE Canada. In some cases there is a fear that a southern vort can really juice up especially in an El Niño and bring temp issues but for NOW, the vort strength AND confluence seem to be trending positively in tandem with each other so a stronger storm doesn’t have to mean that, rather it enhances snowfall even more between those two features. Which is where a lot of us live!  And the crappy west/pac also limits the northern extent of the southern Low. I’m not thrilled that this has to hold 2 more days to really lock in, but imo these setups are a little more “stable” to track with fewer wide run to run swings. This is ALSO a setup than CAN lead to prolific snow totals. Tons to be excited about but if that 50/50 finds a way to bleed east which we have seen happen (or something g like that) then the setup is changed. As is, a lot more wiggle room than many of our nail-biter, delicate set-ups.

Again, just like with the December 18th-20th event, the overall progression should slow relative to “averages”, as well as amplify. As you said, there’s a lot of wiggle room with this, but I don’t think we will need it. I think the only way this could really change is for the better. And I think it will.

I’m agreeing with your thoughts. It wouldn’t surprise me in the least with the upper level Jet structure and relatively slow movement of the vortex, that the large scale models are underscoring the precipitation amounts. Once the RGEM and NAM comes into range, details will become much clearer.

[jmanley32]

I LOVE this set up for a few reasons. One is that we aren’t talking about a delicate phasing situation here. I also like the concept of a southern storm gaining latitude and running into the confluence in SE Canada. In some cases there is a fear that a southern vort can really juice up especially in an El Niño and bring temp issues but for NOW, the vort strength AND confluence seem to be trending positively in tandem with each other so a stronger storm doesn’t have to mean that, rather it enhances snowfall even more between those two features. Which is where a lot of us live!  And the crappy west/pac also limits the northern extent of the southern Low. I’m not thrilled that this has to hold 2 more days to really lock in, but imo these setups are a little more “stable” to track with fewer wide run to run swings. This is ALSO a setup than CAN lead to prolific snow totals. Tons to be excited about but if that 50/50 finds a way to bleed east which we have seen happen (or something g like that) then the setup is changed. As is, a lot more wiggle room than many of our nail-biter, delicate set-ups.

Again, just like with the December 18th-20th event, the overall progression should slow relative to “averages”, as well as amplify. As you said, there’s a lot of wiggle room with this, but I don’t think we will need it. I think the only way this could really change is for the better. And I think it will.

I’m agreeing with your thoughts. It wouldn’t surprise me in the least with the upper level Jet structure and relatively slow movement of the vortex, that the large scale models are underscoring the precipitation amounts. Once the RGEM and NAM comes into range, details will become much clearer.

I am fully expecting the NAM at least specifically 3km to show some rediculous amounts, fun to look at the the Hi-res nam is not usually correct. Remember that time it showed 77 inches in MA lol.

[Irish]

https://www.nj.com/weather/2024/01/nj-weather-forecasters-tracking-possible-1st-significant-snowfall-in-2-years-this-weekend.html

[amugs]

As I pointed out in another post. The arctic, possibly major, outbreak midish January is showing up. What was seen in Siberia and China maybe coming to a town near you, moderated for sure but bitter. A tremendous Cross Arctic Polar Flow!! 

[amugs]

EPS are great.
5 days from now this looks ro start.
Thread should start tomorrow afternoon after 12Z.
It's on. 

[rb924119]

As I pointed out in another post. The arctic, possibly major, outbreak midish January is showing up. What was seen in Siberia and China maybe coming to a town near you, moderated for sure but bitter. A tremendous Cross Arctic Polar Flow!! 

YES SIR MUGSY!!! 1050+hPa pressure in the northern Plains, that’s crème de le crème cold air baby. Give me a building snowpack and we may as well be in the Arctic

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