Re: Long Range Thread 27.0

[phil155]

This is once again painful to watch, not a torch, but temps near 50 on Christmas is definitely grinching the festivities this year… hoping for a 2014-2015 redux when our snowy season started mid-month January, and extended through March… gotta keep some hope alive lol

I am keeping hope alive as people here and elsewhere more knowledgeable than I keep saying January and especially February should be very good. That said I have my sincere doubts as aside from mood flakes we have not seen much of anything and sadly the trend is your friend as they say until it is not and it seems like the cold has no real stay power

[docstox12]

This is once again painful to watch, not a torch, but temps near 50 on Christmas is definitely grinching the festivities this year… hoping for a 2014-2015 redux when our snowy season started mid-month January, and extended through March… gotta keep some hope alive lol

NWS has me for rain and highs in the upper 40's.The bad pattern of almost two months continues.Hope we can get a measurable snow in the books before December ends or we face the dreaded statistic "as December goes, so goes the winter"!

[phil155]

This is once again painful to watch, not a torch, but temps near 50 on Christmas is definitely grinching the festivities this year… hoping for a 2014-2015 redux when our snowy season started mid-month January, and extended through March… gotta keep some hope alive lol

NWS has me for rain and highs in the upper 40's.The bad pattern of almost two months continues.Hope we can get a measurable snow in the books before December ends or we face the dreaded statistic "as December goes, so goes the winter"!

I agree, when a pattern sets in they are hard to break. I am still hopeful that later in the winter we can get a change that can bring some of these moisture laden storms along when we have cold air locked in place

[Irish]

https://www.severe-weather.eu/global-weather/early-stratospheric-warming-forecast-polar-vortex-event-cold-united-states-january-2024-fa/

[docstox12]

https://www.severe-weather.eu/global-weather/early-stratospheric-warming-forecast-polar-vortex-event-cold-united-states-january-2024-fa/

Good news here! We have the moisture on a regular basis.Just a tweak of the storm track and more cold and things can turn around and benefit us.Very early in the game with J,F and M in front of us .

[heehaw453]

This is once again painful to watch, not a torch, but temps near 50 on Christmas is definitely grinching the festivities this year… hoping for a 2014-2015 redux when our snowy season started mid-month January, and extended through March… gotta keep some hope alive lol

NWS has me for rain and highs in the upper 40's.The bad pattern of almost two months continues.Hope we can get a measurable snow in the books before December ends or we face the dreaded statistic "as December goes, so goes the winter"!

10 days left for CPK to get measurable snowfall in December. No measurable snowfall in December has occurred 16 times since 1900 and the rest of the those seasons average snowfall was 14". More details here. I'd rather not test that scenario personally.

[amugs]

Looking increasingly likely.
Sudden Starto warming event





GEFS are most bullish - this would really help the 2nd half of Januray and into Feb.

[amugs]

Great look moving up a bit in time - this was to be Jan 1st now Dec 29/20th time frame.

[amugs]

A 50/50 Low with a Negative AO and NAO = a minor snow event

[dkodgis]

I’ll be ready

[amugs]

Please be right and not a head fake - SROC did an excellent post - thesis LOL about this and the wave looks to be gaining amplitude.

PHASE 1 and 2 and even 3 before hitting the COD would be about 20-25 days of WINTER then reload? I would say so as th epattern and tropical convection matures

[sroc4]

EPS, GEFS, GFS, and CMC so far this am are coming around to the idea that should transpire as a result of the MJO spike in 1. Dont punt December yet folks.

[amugs]

If you can make tihs out God Bless - very busy map here but he outlines everything LOL!!

[heehaw453]

EPS, GEFS, GFS, and CMC so far this am are coming around to the idea that should transpire as a result of the MJO spike in 1.  Dont punt December yet folks.  

Agree Sroc. It would be premature ATTM to punt 12/27-12/31 window. Need several more days to iron out the s/w's and the cold press.

[Frank_Wx]

It's starting to look a lot more like winter on the models come the 30th/31st. I leave for my honeymoon on the 26th. That should be a positive sign for those looking for a winter storm on New Years.

[Irish]

If you can make tihs out God Bless - very busy map here but he outlines everything LOL!!

Is this supposed to be a clear sign of anything?!

[amugs]

EPS, GEFS, GFS, and CMC so far this am are coming around to the idea that should transpire as a result of the MJO spike in 1.  Dont punt December yet folks.  

Agree Sroc. It would be premature ATTM to punt 12/27-12/31 window. Need several more days to iron out the s/w's and the cold press.

Well, well, well as I stated earlier this may produce a minor event and as SROC said don't sleep on this.
Models picking up on the N EPO and P PNA and N AO.

[heehaw453]

EPS, GEFS, GFS, and CMC so far this am are coming around to the idea that should transpire as a result of the MJO spike in 1.  Dont punt December yet folks.  

Agree Sroc. It would be premature ATTM to punt 12/27-12/31 window. Need several more days to iron out the s/w's and the cold press.

Well, well, well as I stated earlier this may produce a minor event and as SROC said don't sleep on this.
Models picking up on the N EPO and P PNA and N AO.

Yeah definitely the h5 seems right for something small. If this period produces anything I'd expect discrete threats to start showing up by Christmas Day.

[amugs]

GEFS went considerably colder at 18Z over 12 Z.

[heehaw453]

If you look really far out you'd say things could get REALLY interested in a hurry. This is BIG DOG stuff as shown. But one milestone at time. I'd like to see some accumulating snow IMBY first.

[tomsriversnowstorm]

Is the pattern change still happening? It has been very quiet.

[docstox12]

Is the pattern change still happening? It has been very quiet.

I think it takes a week or two for the shift in gears to be apparent.Hang in there, we have a LOT of winter to go.

[tomsriversnowstorm]

I know that it is just the lack of post that had me concerned. Usually people are posting like crazy when good news is happening.

Is the pattern change still happening? It has been very quiet.

I think it takes a week or two for the shift in gears to be apparent.Hang in there, we have a LOT of winter to go.

[heehaw453]

Two things need to be ironed out for 12/28-31 window: 1/how much cold air will we have to work with and that will depend on H pressure to the north, 2/short wave strength/placement which affects point 1 too. I think the long wave pattern is decent enough for some snow especially in the interior. If I wasn't looking at the thermal profile on 12Z GFS I'd say this is a moderate snow storm for the area including coastal plain but then I see the thermal profile and





No H pressure pumping in cold air. If we don't see that this is a no go as our base air mass is not cold. We will need fresh supply of cold air IMO even if the track is magnificent.

[Frank_Wx]

I know that it is just the lack of post that had me concerned. Usually people are posting like crazy when good news is happening.

Is the pattern change still happening? It has been very quiet.

I think it takes a week or two for the shift in gears to be apparent.Hang in there, we have a LOT of winter to go.

I like Jan 4th-10th for our first snow

[Dunnzoo]

I know that it is just the lack of post that had me concerned. Usually people are posting like crazy when good news is happening.

Is the pattern change still happening? It has been very quiet.

I think it takes a week or two for the shift in gears to be apparent.Hang in there, we have a LOT of winter to go.

I like Jan 4th-10th for our first snow

Just in time for my birthday!

[tomsriversnowstorm]

Awesome thank you

I know that it is just the lack of post that had me concerned. Usually people are posting like crazy when good news is happening.

Is the pattern change still happening? It has been very quiet.

I think it takes a week or two for the shift in gears to be apparent.Hang in there, we have a LOT of winter to go.

I like Jan 4th-10th for our first snow

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