Re: Long Range Thread 27.0

[aiannone]

I’m waiting to hear about “the return of the Polar Vortex” in the media

LOL you know it will be prevalent

[CPcantmeasuresnow]

Weather channel app for my area just went a little off the deep end 12 to 18 inches Saturday night and Sunday.

I'll stick with the 6 to 11 they've been forecasting all week And be happy if that even materializes.

[docstox12]

Weather channel app for my area just went a little off the deep end 12 to 18 inches Saturday night and Sunday.

I'll stick with the 6 to 11 they've been forecasting all week And be happy if that even materializes.

That's the best case scenario CP but I am staying with the 6 to 8 with an outside shot at 12 NWS is calling for.Anyway, as we old timers observing snowstorms in this area, you aren't sure of anything until the storm starts and you see 1 to 2 inch rates on the radar heading for you for hours.THEN you can relax and enjoy it.

[CPcantmeasuresnow]

Weather channel app for my area just went a little off the deep end 12 to 18 inches Saturday night and Sunday.

I'll stick with the 6 to 11 they've been forecasting all week And be happy if that even materializes.

That's the best case scenario CP but I am staying with the 6 to 8 with an outside shot at 12 NWS is calling for.Anyway, as we old timers observing snowstorms in this area, you aren't sure of anything until the storm starts and you see 1 to 2 inch rates on the radar heading for you for hours.THEN you can relax and enjoy it.

Even that's never a sure thing Doc. Don't forget the anti virga storm of 2017

[billg315]

Only thing worse than seeing snow over you on the radar that isn't reaching the ground in reality is seeing a heavy band of snow just to your east or west that just trains over the same area while you wait in a dry slot.

[amugs]

Nice SSW events that will couple with the troposphere and bring a solid N NAO and AO. LR models show a 1063 HP that would be record breaking and the cold would be harsh even for upper Midwest standards. All that above normal temp monthly departure last month may get obliterated by this cold if it materializes.

[rb924119]

Nice SSW events that will couple with the troposphere and bring a solid N NAO and AO. LR models show a 1063 HP that would be record breaking and the cold would be harsh even for upper Midwest standards. All that above normal temp monthly departure last month may get obliterated by this cold if it materializes.

This is a BEAUTIFUL graphic mugs! That’s such a great visualization of the vertical impacts of the downward propagation of the heat fluxes that @sroc and I were intensely discussing last week!! Is that a free source??

[rb924119]

Weather channel app for my area just went a little off the deep end 12 to 18 inches Saturday night and Sunday.

I'll stick with the 6 to 11 they've been forecasting all week And be happy if that even materializes.

I think it can. I think it can. I think it can. The little snow storm that could.

[docstox12]

Weather channel app for my area just went a little off the deep end 12 to 18 inches Saturday night and Sunday.

I'll stick with the 6 to 11 they've been forecasting all week And be happy if that even materializes.

I think it can. I think it can. I think it can. The little snow storm that could.

The poor man has been brutalized by last years horror so we must be patient and understanding.Nothing that 12 to 18 would not cure!!

[rb924119]

We all were brutalized by last year lol but at least we got a record out of it, so it wasn’t entirely in vain hahaha besides, once you hit rock bottom, there’s only one way to lmaooo

[amugs]

Nice SSW events that will couple with the troposphere and bring a solid N NAO and AO. LR models show a 1063 HP that would be record breaking and the cold would be harsh even for upper Midwest standards. All that above normal temp monthly departure last month may get obliterated by this cold if it materializes.

This is a BEAUTIFUL graphic mugs! That’s such a great visualization of the vertical impacts of the downward propagation of the heat fluxes that @sroc and I were intensely discussing last week!! Is that a free source??

Yes it is.

[amugs]

The dynamic snowstorm couplet from 13-14, 14-15, 17-18 is back.

[tomsriversnowstorm]

Mugs, I have read in multiple places what you are saying. Not just here. It all seems to be looking like a great pattern. My question is what is the weather channel seeing that is different. They are on an by themselves. Just curious why are they looking at when all this new data says the opposite of their ideas.

The dynamic snowstorm couplet from 13-14, 14-15, 17-18 is back.

[amugs]

Mugs, I have read in multiple places what you are saying. Not just here. It all seems to be looking like a great pattern. My question is what is the weather channel seeing that is different. They are on an by themselves. Just curious why are they looking at when all this new data says the opposite of their ideas.

The dynamic snowstorm couplet from 13-14, 14-15, 17-18 is back.

Toms that is a great question and they always side with strong nino or nina pattern and do not change from a warm look.

This speaks volumes that something is going to blow bigly somewhere!! A Negative NAO as I showed above WOWZA!!

[Frank_Wx]

Forecast JAN 8th-10th: Mild & Wet

-It does not appear our high latitude block is strong enough or positioned west enough to stop this major storm from cutting

-Heavy rain likely Tuesday afternoon into Wednesday morning

Forecast JAN 11th-14th: Seasonally cold, maybe a snowstorm

-The JAN 10th cutter reinforces the -NAO block over Greenland

-Anomalous heights will build in the north Pacific (-EPO)

-Extreme arctic cold will penetrate the western U.S. and a trough will gradually (but slowly begin to move east into the central U.S.)

-Storm signal around JAN 13th. The -EPO/-NAO SHOULD prevent this from cutting, but if the blocks end up weaker or more north than we expect, it will have room to cut just like the JAN 10th storm


Forecast JAN 15th+: Potential for arctic blast

-As mentioned, the mega-trough over the western U.S. will begin tracking east into the central U.S.

-If the higher heights build as planned in the Pacific and west U.S., this cold will make it to the eastern U.S. as well

-Arctic cold couples with active STJ sets stage for big storms

-If the EPO/NAO ridges collapse, the pattern will turn unfavorable since the MJO is forecasted to go through phases 4-5

-We will need help from the Stratosphere. There are signs of a SSWE, but it looks like it will be a temporary displacement of the PV instead

-Actual SSWE may still happen, but not until late JAN / early FEB

[toople]

I feel like we’ve been on MJO Phase 1-3 for awhile and we still got warm and heavy rain storms. Maybe I’m wrong

[Frank_Wx]

I feel like we’ve been on MJO Phase 1-3 for awhile and we still got warm and heavy rain storms. Maybe I’m wrong

Thing is we were in phase 1 around the 24th and already into phase 3 by the 2nd of January. It was a very quick moving wave, and now it appears to be stalling in phase 3 for awhile.

[tomsriversnowstorm]

So the negative 33 and rain forum is talking about how the rest of January does not look good for snow chances and it may even get warm. They are saying the models don’t look good. I trust you guys but why are they saying this.

[toople]

I feel like torch came easily when it was phase 4-6 as it was expected but when we got to phase 1 and 2, we still torched at last week of December.  Perhaps there was other factors besides MJO?

[docstox12]

I feel like torch came easily when it was phase 4-6 as it was expected but when we got to phase 1 and 2, we still torched at last week of December.  Perhaps there was other factors besides MJO?

There absolutely are, IMO.
They have come a long way in long range forecasting, but I think there are so many variables that these models can't pick up on at the current time.That's why they are interesting to me, but I go by my 63 years of observing winters in this area.Since Nov 1, we have been in a pattern where storms cut west of us and we get all rain.This snowstorm tomorrow, now is drifting west and the one mid week is far west of us with all rain.Bottom line, not enough cold air and a bad storm track set in stone ATM.
Still plenty of time to reverse this and get a good Feb and Mar but I want to see a major cold air invasion and at least a 6 inch snowstorm area wide to believe we have a better pattern.

[chief7]

Ridge bridge. https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/1083413831243550840/1192903373511467008/image0.jpg?ex=65aac4d7&is=65984fd7&hm=1c7463e0dbdc215905e787f42f7193e65350648ec9c7c8574c8c74c07b549bad&

[Coachgriff]

I feel like torch came easily when it was phase 4-6 as it was expected but when we got to phase 1 and 2, we still torched at last week of December.  Perhaps there was other factors besides MJO?

There absolutely are, IMO.
They have come a long way in long range forecasting, but I think there are so many variables that these models can't pick up on at the current time.That's why they are interesting to me, but I go by my 63 years of observing winters in this area.Since Nov 1, we have been in a pattern where storms cut west of us and we get all rain.This snowstorm tomorrow, now is drifting west and the one mid week is far west of us with all rain.Bottom line, not enough cold air and a bad storm track set in stone ATM.
Still plenty of time to reverse this and get a good Feb and Mar but I want to see a major cold air invasion and at least a 6 inch snowstorm area wide to believe we have a better pattern.

Spot on…I am just starting to understand the fundamentals but as a football coach I got very good at spotting trends…and so far this Winter is doing many of the same things as the past two. There are obviously different conditions this year but the trend remains the same…so what aren’t the forecasting models seeing? The 36-24hr out bust has become the most trusted Winter feature!

[docstox12]

I feel like torch came easily when it was phase 4-6 as it was expected but when we got to phase 1 and 2, we still torched at last week of December.  Perhaps there was other factors besides MJO?

There absolutely are, IMO.
They have come a long way in long range forecasting, but I think there are so many variables that these models can't pick up on at the current time.That's why they are interesting to me, but I go by my 63 years of observing winters in this area.Since Nov 1, we have been in a pattern where storms cut west of us and we get all rain.This snowstorm tomorrow, now is drifting west and the one mid week is far west of us with all rain.Bottom line, not enough cold air and a bad storm track set in stone ATM.
Still plenty of time to reverse this and get a good Feb and Mar but I want to see a major cold air invasion and at least a 6 inch snowstorm area wide to believe we have a better pattern.

Spot on…I am just starting to understand the fundamentals but as a football coach I got very good at spotting trends…and so far this Winter is doing many of the same things as the past two.  There are obviously different conditions this year but the trend remains the same…so what aren’t the forecasting models seeing?  The 36-24hr out bust has become the most trusted Winter feature!

Hey, Coach, thanks for taking the time to reply and all the best coaching fine young men to successful football seasons!

[rb924119]

Per D’Aleo, the GEM just painted a temperature of less than -60°F in Montana on Day 9. The all-time record cold temperature in the lower 48 is -70°F, set January 20th, 1954 at Roger’s Pass. I don’t care who you are or what you believe, that’s freakin’ wild!! It’s far cry from the pattern of December, for anybody claiming there hasn’t been a pattern change. The majesty of the weather is unrivaled, folks, enjoy it!

[amugs]

Per D’Aleo, the GEM just painted a temperature of less than -60°F in Montana on Day 9. The all-time record cold temperature in the lower 48 is -70°F, set January 20th, 1954 at Roger’s Pass. I don’t care who you are or what you believe, that’s freakin’ wild!! It’s far cry from the pattern of December, for anybody claiming there hasn’t been a pattern change. The majesty of the weather is unrivaled, folks, enjoy it!

-76BN temps inbound
A 1050 and 1060 HP WIL cause damage to the infrastructure of the regions under those.



Also next weekends storms get pressed more S than curre tly modeled at 168hrs. Only 5 days away. 
The MLK storm behind it will ride the arctic boundary it lays down ala 13-14,14-15.

Oh and Tues into Wed a fierce cutter that will bring impacts of flooding and possible damaging winds.

[amugs]

Keep this trend going!! 

[docstox12]

Looks like the rainy and mild pattern in effect since Nov.1 returns this week with two rainstorms on tap.Actually , a lot of the Forum had rain with the storm last night.
We need a lot colder air and a better storm track.

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