Re: Long Range Thread 27.0

[amugs]

This is an exciting look for next Tuesdayish timeframe

N NAO, AO
N EPO and a PNA spike - ridge over the west coast and building east.

15-16th, correct?

15th to 17th time frame

[heehaw453]

Potential is there on the 16th for something moderate to significant based on the long wave pattern. Expect a lot of different op solutions until Thursday night/Friday until models get a better handle of s/w interactions. Slight changes in that will make all the difference in the outcome.

[tomsriversnowstorm]

Does the jersey shore have any chance on this one or is it more likely interior only ?

Potential is there on the 16th for something moderate to significant based on the long wave pattern. Expect a lot of different op solutions until Thursday night/Friday until models get a better handle of s/w interactions. Slight changes in that will make all the difference in the outcome.

[heehaw453]

Does the jersey shore have any chance on this one or is it more likely interior only ?

Potential is there on the 16th for something moderate to significant based on the long wave pattern. Expect a lot of different op solutions until Thursday night/Friday until models get a better handle of s/w interactions. Slight changes in that will make all the difference in the outcome.

Yep Jersey Shore in play. But again if the short waves don't interact properly it won't be much of anything on 15th-16th.

If we had Pacific support we'd be talking threats before next Sunday, but the PNA is just too hostile now to avoid the next two cutters. Any decent accumulations from those will be highest elevations.

Longer term I am encouraged to see the ensembles displace the coldest air from eastern side of globe to western during January. It seems to be rotating the TPV into the AO domain. Hopefully that can split up a bit and get pushed under a -NAM state. I think as usual there is much uncertainty with what happens in the longer range as all these pieces set up.

https://mediastorage453.blob.core.windows.net/public/gfs-ensemble-all-avg-nhemi-t850-1704736800-1705417200-1706119200-40.gif

[jmanley32]

Not sure if this is LR or Jan obs thread but it looks like Sat cutter could be just about as bad (maybe a tad weaker) than tomorrow. Talk about no breather for NJ and NY/CT etc.

[nutleyblizzard]

GFS at 6Z is now on board for a snowstorm next Tuesday. EURO continues with the threat as well.

[heehaw453]

Regarding the threat for next Monday/Tuesday. Yeah it's there. I will say this look to me is an inside the BM track as shown. IMO this is not an inland runner with the TPV nearby and the PNA going more neutral/slightly positive, but that jet streak is strong and pointing NE. The biggest difference with this threat is that you have the TPV approaching James Bay and much colder air to work with. I won't do any s/w analysis until D5 if this thing holds.

[rb924119]

Regarding the threat for next Monday/Tuesday. Yeah it's there. I will say this look to me is an inside the BM track as shown. IMO this is not an inland runner with the TPV nearby and the PNA going more neutral/slightly positive, but that jet streak is strong and pointing NE. The biggest difference with this threat is that you have the TPV approaching James Bay and much colder air to work with. I won't do any s/w analysis until D5 if this thing holds.

Verbatim that ridge axis is awfully far back for it to be a good result for us. I haven't looked at this yet, though, so take this for what it’s worth lol

[rb924119]

And there it is:



Watch for that amplitude and duration in phase 6 to trend stronger and longer as we get closer. BUT, as I mentioned earlier, it may not be the kiss of death for February. Once we get through this storm I’ll have more to say.

[heehaw453]

And there it is:



Watch for that amplitude and duration in phase 6 to trend stronger and longer as we get closer. BUT, as I mentioned earlier, it may not be the kiss of death for February. Once we get through this storm I’ll have more to say.

I agree and think the MJO RMM plots right now are not too reliable. I like colder air building into the AO domain in January and that feels like a good first step for February chances.

[Frank_Wx]

Forecast JAN 8th-10th: Mild & Wet

-It does not appear our high latitude block is strong enough or positioned west enough to stop this major storm from cutting

-Heavy rain likely Tuesday afternoon into Wednesday morning

Forecast JAN 11th-14th: Seasonally cold, maybe a snowstorm

-The JAN 10th cutter reinforces the -NAO block over Greenland

-Anomalous heights will build in the north Pacific (-EPO)

-Extreme arctic cold will penetrate the western U.S. and a trough will gradually (but slowly begin to move east into the central U.S.)

-Storm signal around JAN 13th. The -EPO/-NAO SHOULD prevent this from cutting, but if the blocks end up weaker or more north than we expect, it will have room to cut just like the JAN 10th storm


Forecast JAN 15th+: Potential for arctic blast

-As mentioned, the mega-trough over the western U.S. will begin tracking east into the central U.S.

-If the higher heights build as planned in the Pacific and west U.S., this cold will make it to the eastern U.S. as well

-Arctic cold couples with active STJ sets stage for big storms

-If the EPO/NAO ridges collapse, the pattern will turn unfavorable since the MJO is forecasted to go through phases 4-5

-We will need help from the Stratosphere. There are signs of a SSWE, but it looks like it will be a temporary displacement of the PV instead

-Actual SSWE may still happen, but not until late JAN / early FEB

I gave this update last week and just want to do a quick follow up. Although today's storm will in fact reinforce the -NAO block over Greenland, the TPV will be poorly centered over SW Canada which goes against achieving snowy weather here in the northeast. The next storm (12th-13th) ends up caught in the southwesterly flow of the TPV which causes the surface low to once again cuts west of us. So, expect another rainstorm friday evening into saturday that has potential to drop around 1" to 1.5" of rain. Far less rain and wind than what we're seeing now.

What happens after this is really starting to excite me. Not only does the -NAO block over Greenland "retrograde" into more of a west-based block, but the TPV that was in SW Canada gets split in half by the NAO and EPO ridges. One half goes north into Alaska. The other half phases with the Saturday cutter (remember, the -NAO block keeps Saturday's cutter from escaping into the northern Atlantic. It actually hooks left once it gets into Canada). This phase created one big TPV that ends up sitting over the Hudson Bay, or just south of there.

You actually have a "rex block" look with an extremely strong area of High Pressure north of the TPV. Additionally, we have an impressive -EPO/+PNA tandem developing over the Pacific side of the country. These developments allow for a full latitude trough to penetrate through the east-central and eastern U.S. by the 15th-18th time period. Within this time frame, the models are barking LOUDLY and suggest a widespread Godzilla will impact the area.

Given the intricacies in this forecast, it is important for all of us to temper excitement until we get closer to the event and see consistent model runs. It only takes one of these things to go awry to completely dismantle the upper level pattern and collapse any threat of a Godzilla. For example, if Saturday's cutter ends up weaker than modeled, that could throw off the -NAO block which may effect things upstream. We just dont know quite yet.

As things stand today...it is looking like we will have sleepless nights of tracking starting this Friday. I will have a blog post out later this week to further highlight the potential.

[amugs]

^^^^Frank I swear u start a thread to early and Mush this storm their will be mutiny!!!!

[frank 638]

[CPcantmeasuresnow]

Frank start a thread for the 16th storm. I'm fine the way last weekends storm worked out. You didn't jinx it for those of us in the north and west you enhanced it.

[amugs]

Frank start a thread for the 16th storm. I'm fine the way last weekends storm worked out. You didn't jinx it for those of us in the north and west you enhanced it.

Selfish!!! LOL

[docstox12]

Frank start a thread for the 16th storm. I'm fine the way last weekends storm worked out. You didn't jinx it for those of us in the north and west you enhanced it.

Selfish!!! LOL

LMAO, CP is the new Mr.Potter of NJ Strong."A mean,miserable old snow miser who would deny a snowpack to any working class stiff S and E of I 95"! Just joking CP,LOL.

[heehaw453]

I'd like to see better PNA support for 1/15-16 since a good 50/50 may not be present. This jet streak keeps trending a bit further north and leads me to think a close pass of low pressure. I'm confident a good antecedent air mass will be there, but a storm that's passing too close will warm up the mid levels and it will taint especially east of the Fall Line.

The 00Z Euro was aggressive with L pressure development as it has been, but it lost some of its ensemble support for such an outcome.

Personally I'm keeping expectations at something moderate IMBY on the potential scale. But of course may not work out at all.

[heehaw453]

Better PNA support. A bit of a trough in the 50/50. Stuff like that will make a huge difference in potential with this one. Tomorrow 12Z hopefully we get some more consistency on guidance. I set my potential at moderate event for now...

[heehaw453]

Fairly strong signal for a storm D6 on the EPS.

[jmanley32]

This is not a IMBY question but a question on the whole how difficult will this one potentially be fore coastal areas I-95, NYC etc? Or is it too early to even know that? Will we have cold air in place down to the coast I guess is what is most important and no intrusion of warm air. I am not getting excited at all after the last storm, CP selfish I concur, why can't we get something! If I move up there i am gonna come dump hot water all over your snow lol

[CPcantmeasuresnow]

Frank start a thread for the 16th storm. I'm fine the way last weekends storm worked out. You didn't jinx it for those of us in the north and west you enhanced it.

Selfish!!! LOL

LMAO, CP is the new Mr.Potter of NJ Strong."A mean,miserable old snow miser who would deny a snowpack to any working class stiff S and E of I 95"! Just joking CP,LOL.

Doc, you're not joking because it's true, LOL.

[heehaw453]

This is not a IMBY question but a question on the whole how difficult will this one potentially be fore coastal areas I-95, NYC etc? Or is it too early to even know that? Will we have cold air in place down to the coast I guess is what is most important and no intrusion of warm air. I am not getting excited at all after the last storm, CP selfish I concur, why can't we get something! If I move up there i am gonna come dump hot water all over your snow lol

The period starting on 1/15 ish would be the best chance so far this season that the coastal plain has had. The usual rules apply for D6 threats in that until there is run2run consistency things can go side ways.

[jmanley32]

This is not a IMBY question but a question on the whole how difficult will this one potentially be fore coastal areas I-95, NYC etc? Or is it too early to even know that? Will we have cold air in place down to the coast I guess is what is most important and no intrusion of warm air. I am not getting excited at all after the last storm, CP selfish I concur, why can't we get something! If I move up there i am gonna come dump hot water all over your snow lol

The period starting on 1/15 ish would be the best chance so far this season that the coastal plain has had. The usual rules apply for D6 threats in that until there is run2run consistency things can go side ways.

Oh yeah I know, way to far ahead but good to know that it is our best shot so far, i would prefer to see some sustained cold before it but thats not go happen with the weekend storm coming. Still not getting my hopes up much, its been so long since we have been ablketo have a snowstorm down here that I kinda figure its any mans guess if its 1 week away or 10 years lol

[heehaw453]

I would be disingenuous if I said this 18Z EPS doesn't have me just bit excited about early next week.

[nutleyblizzard]

I would be disingenuous if I said this 18Z EPS doesn't have me just bit excited about early next week.

Wow that’s impressive. Possible KU event in the making?

[Irish]

Here... we... go...!!!

[billg315]

Can’t remember the last time I saw multiple snow threats in about a one week time span but next week may do it. This cold outbreak sinking into the conus the next few days should open the door to our best snow opportunities in quite sometime. Which isn’t to say that we cash in, but it’s a heck of a lot easier to get a snowstorm when temps are locked at or below freezing for several days.

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