Re: Long Range Thread 27.0

by **sroc4** Fri Jan 12, 2024 1:30 pm

MattyICE wrote:Looks like the 12z Euro op has halted and slightly reversed the SE slip. It doesn’t make massive jumps in one run but hopefully it’s a sign of additional ticks. With the Ukie and CMC still on the warmer side I think we’re ok for now. Still 4-5 days out.

Agreed. Euro typically walks itself towards the final soln; whereas the GFS tends to be a bit more extreme with run to run variability. So far both models seem to be living up to that. Good spot right now

by **heehaw453** Fri Jan 12, 2024 1:34 pm

So the 12Z Euro kind of stopped getting worse. Need the ridge to hold. You want to see heights rise with a more neutral tilt to the trough and that allows the S/S energy to be scooped up so to speak. That's how this becomes a big deal. I'm not pessimistic on where we are. If anything what we tend to see is a more amped up system as the S/S tends to be underdone by the models and I think the PNA is pretty good at least initially. So let's see.

Long Range Thread 27.0 - Page 34 12zeur13

by **jmanley32** Fri Jan 12, 2024 1:47 pm

amugs wrote:WPC not buying at OTS solution and keeps upping the ante precip.

Hopefully that blue trends west, no beantown special!! Is the possible or will it bomb out too late?

by **Frank_Wx** Fri Jan 12, 2024 1:53 pm

We have a great opportunity for snow starting with Tuesday's event and again next Friday. After that, we're looking at a re-load that will see temps warm up again. But maybe February thrills. More to come on that.

We reallllllly need to capitalize in the next week. Can't go 2 months in the meteorological winter with no snow on the coast.

by **aiannone** Fri Jan 12, 2024 1:55 pm

Frank_Wx wrote:We have a great opportunity for snow starting with Tuesday's event and again next Friday. After that, we're looking at a re-load that will see temps warm up again. But maybe February thrills. More to come on that.

We reallllllly need to capitalize in the next week. Can't go 2 months in the meteorological winter with no snow on the coast.

Might be the first time we have a snowpack for a bit and have new snow on top of a snowpack Smile

by **sroc4** Fri Jan 12, 2024 1:56 pm

Frank_Wx wrote:We have a great opportunity for snow starting with Tuesday's event and again next Friday. After that, we're looking at a re-load that will see temps warm up again. But maybe February thrills. More to come on that.

We reallllllly need to capitalize in the next week. Can't go 2 months in the meteorological winter with no snow on the coast.

Agreed Frank. And the full extent of a "reload" or "warm up" can sometimes be affected by a wide spread decently deep snow pack. Capitalizing on at least one if not both could prove favorable for a less than overwhelming and perhaps shorter lived "reload" to the pattern.

Long Range Thread 27.0 - Page 34 ?u=http%3A%2F%2Fmedia.istockphoto

Long Range Thread 27.0 - Page 34 ?u=http%3A%2F%2Fmedia.istockphoto

by **heehaw453** Fri Jan 12, 2024 3:49 pm

Take the NAM at end of its run FWIW. Lots of S/S energy out ahead of a digging trough enhanced with a nice western ridge. That digging trough is the key to allowing the S/S energy to be scooped up and pushed up instead of out.

Long Range Thread 27.0 - Page 34 Nam8411

by **heehaw453** Fri Jan 12, 2024 4:33 pm

The 18Z RGEM is Miller A scenario up the coast and not out IMO. Look at the TPV northwest of James Bay which has plenty of space for this to move up and not out.

What I'm starting to think is the temp gradient is going to juice this storm a bit. Look at the H nosing in.

Long Range Thread 27.0 - Page 34 Rgemmi10

by **heehaw453** Fri Jan 12, 2024 5:05 pm

18Z GFS just doesn't get its act together. That actually might be OK at D4.

by **sroc4** Fri Jan 12, 2024 5:13 pm

heehaw453 wrote:18Z GFS just doesn't get its act together. That actually might be OK at D4.

100% ok with this D4

by **dkodgis** Fri Jan 12, 2024 5:26 pm

110% sounds better

by **rb924119** Fri Jan 12, 2024 6:20 pm

I haven’t really had a chance to look at this yet, but from what I have seen, I’m not overly enthused with the 14th-16th event. Keep in mind, though, I’m not exactly batting 1000 so far this season either lol

by JT33 Fri Jan 12, 2024 7:01 pm

heehaw453 wrote:Take the NAM at end of its run FWIW. Lots of S/S energy out ahead of a digging trough enhanced with a nice western ridge. That digging trough is the key to allowing the S/S energy to be scooped up and pushed up instead of out.

Can someone explain what "S/S" means? Thanks!

by **heehaw453** Fri Jan 12, 2024 7:04 pm

JT33 wrote:
heehaw453 wrote:Take the NAM at end of its run FWIW. Lots of S/S energy out ahead of a digging trough enhanced with a nice western ridge. That digging trough is the key to allowing the S/S energy to be scooped up and pushed up instead of out.

Can someone explain what "S/S" means? Thanks!

It's southern stream. All the red dots off the SE coast.

by **heehaw453** Fri Jan 12, 2024 7:13 pm

rb924119 wrote:I haven’t really had a chance to look at this yet, but from what I have seen, I’m not overly enthused with the 14th-16th event. Keep in mind, though, I’m not exactly batting 1000 so far this season either lol

Can't really argue that ATTM, but honestly I think a few to several inches for a lot of folks would probably seem like a big deal.

by **frank 638** Fri Jan 12, 2024 7:32 pm

heehaw453 wrote:
rb924119 wrote:I haven’t really had a chance to look at this yet, but from what I have seen, I’m not overly enthused with the 14th-16th event. Keep in mind, though, I’m not exactly batting 1000 so far this season either lol

Can't really argue that ATTM, but honestly I think a few to several inches for a lot of folks would probably seem like a big deal.

I just point I will take a few inches to make me happy I am desperate for snow

by **Irish** Fri Jan 12, 2024 7:37 pm

I feel like yet another storm is slipping away, I'm hoping that's not the case. Reading the same on other boards.

by **weatherwatchermom** Fri Jan 12, 2024 8:07 pm

Irish wrote:I feel like yet another storm is slipping away, I'm hoping that's not the case. Reading the same on other boards.

by Coachgriff Fri Jan 12, 2024 8:13 pm

I get that there are many factors at play with storms but it really seems like anytime we get temps that are away from average it is dry as a bone and when we have moderate temps we are flooding. Not sure that is an official pattern but for what it’s worth that has been standard operating procedure for 3 years now. When it’s very hot in the summer we can’t get any rain and when it’s cold enough for snow we can’t get any moisture to work worth. Can any of the leaders here explain that?

by **CPcantmeasuresnow** Fri Jan 12, 2024 8:34 pm

Stick a fork in it, it's done.

by **Irish** Fri Jan 12, 2024 8:41 pm

CPcantmeasuresnow wrote:Stick a fork in it, it's done.

by **sroc4** Fri Jan 12, 2024 8:47 pm

‍�

by **hyde345** Fri Jan 12, 2024 8:49 pm

CPcantmeasuresnow wrote:Stick a fork in it, it's done.

That's what you said last time.

by **sroc4** Fri Jan 12, 2024 8:53 pm

by **CPcantmeasuresnow** Fri Jan 12, 2024 9:03 pm

hyde345 wrote:
CPcantmeasuresnow wrote:Stick a fork in it, it's done.

That's what you said last time.

And i'm sure you remember, it worked out pretty well for us. There is a method to my madness.

by **CPcantmeasuresnow** Fri Jan 12, 2024 9:05 pm

I say we creat a separate storm thread for Tuesday.

by **hyde345** Fri Jan 12, 2024 9:06 pm

CPcantmeasuresnow wrote:
hyde345 wrote:
CPcantmeasuresnow wrote:Stick a fork in it, it's done.

That's what you said last time.

And i'm sure you remember, it worked out pretty well for us. There is a method to my madness.

Keep it up then.

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