Re: Long Range Thread 27.0

[Frank_Wx]

No one wants to mention the Godzilla the 18z GFS spat out?

[phil155]

No one wants to mention the Godzilla the 18z GFS spat out?

What are the parameters for a Godzilla event

[hyde345]

No one wants to mention the Godzilla the 18z GFS spat out?

I'll take the over a foot it gives me lol. The GFS, Icon, CMC, and Ukie all show a wintry event in varying degrees. The Eurotrash is the outlier right now.

[heehaw453]

Hard to complain on the h5 but I will bring up the 50/50 thing again because I think the 12Z Euro Op is wrong and this PNA is going to allow a coastal storm that amplifies. I also agree with sroc that the S/S will probably be potent just as it has all season so far. The storm will be allowed to bring up warm air w/out better 50/50 support. If that 50/50 starts to fill in the potential for this goes UP IMO.

[weatherwatchermom]

No one wants to mention the Godzilla the 18z GFS spat out?

nope..lol

[heehaw453]

Then there's this. WPC doesn't seem to be cutting anything across the Fall Line

[amugs]

Looking good.
Also to note that temp will be very cold aloft so snow ratios will not be 10:1 but more like 12-15:1 for many.
Lastly the trailing Low Pressure systems love to ride the arctic boundary and teh thermal gradient.

[Frank_Wx]

No one wants to mention the Godzilla the 18z GFS spat out?

What are the parameters for a Godzilla event

Widespread 12”+ event

[heehaw453]

Negatively tilted h5 trough on 00Z GFS. Would keep the flow cold and moist. That would have some thing serious upside. I like the TPV sitting to the west of James Bay. That would be ideal.

[heehaw453]

But these models are going to be a all over the place until the s/w interaction is ironed out unfortunately. My guess Saturday runs start to get more run2run consistency.

[heehaw453]

Yowza 00Z GEFS. Very healthy moisture fetch and some deep cold air. There's just huge cold air supply west on this setup. Normally see that to our north. This feel like boundary layer enhancement is a distinct possibility if things get going with this storm.

[SENJsnowman]

Yowza 00Z GEFS. Very healthy moisture fetch and some deep cold air. There's just huge cold air supply west on this setup. Normally see that to our north. This feel like boundary layer enhancement is a distinct possibility if things get going with this storm.

Wow! The beautiful sounds of HeeHaw commenting on the abundance of cold air as opposed to lamenting the lack of cold air.

Here we go! (Hopefully…)

[CPcantmeasuresnow]

Yowza 00Z GEFS. Very healthy moisture fetch and some deep cold air. There's just huge cold air supply west on this setup. Normally see that to our north. This feel like boundary layer enhancement is a distinct possibility if things get going with this storm.

Wow! The beautiful sounds of HeeHaw commenting on the abundance of cold air as opposed to lamenting the lack of cold air.

Here we go! (Hopefully…)

I don't want to get my hopes up yet. As out experts have stated we probably don't know the true evolution of this storm until tonight's storm passes, BUT as depicted it's not that common in that everyone is happy forum wide. The countdown continues.

[SENJsnowman]

Yowza 00Z GEFS. Very healthy moisture fetch and some deep cold air. There's just huge cold air supply west on this setup. Normally see that to our north. This feel like boundary layer enhancement is a distinct possibility if things get going with this storm.

Wow! The beautiful sounds of HeeHaw commenting on the abundance of cold air as opposed to lamenting the lack of cold air.

Here we go! (Hopefully…)

I don't want to get my hopes up yet. As out experts have stated we probably don't know the true evolution of this storm until tonight's storm passes, BUT as depicted it's not that common in that  everyone is happy forum wide. The countdown continues.

Yeah, I totally hear you CP, but I’m just not wired to not get my hopes up. Lol. And to be even this well positioned for a snowstorm 4 days out, happens every two years or so at the Jersey Coast. I feel like the hunt has started, and the thrill is in the hunt!

But…I know the risks for letdown, and I promise not to Mush it for others by running my mouth (too much)…

We track!

[sroc4]

We def still need to temper expectations. While the gfs still shows a robust WC ridge, digging n/S energy into S/s energy, and a well placed TPV over west HB, CMC and Euro do not. Both cmc and euro still have a pesky s/w that knocks down the important west coast ridge(heehaw highlighted this yesterday), and the TPV is not well positioned as a result. It appears too far west on CMC leading to room to bring the storm track in tight and warm and Euro still has weak s/s energy that is allowed to escape SE because collapsing WC ridge can’t dig into the back side in time. Take todays runs with a grain of salt but we don’t want to see gfs head towards showing that pesky s/w knocking down the WC ridge.

We track

[heehaw453]

Folks get sucked in before there is more model consensus at the risk of your own personal disappointment. At this point even seeing the digital output of some of the guidance with the prospect for a more sustained period of colder weather is working for me.

[jmanley32]

I am proud of myself for not getting sucked in this year as was stated we have no model consistency and 4 days out. Once I see you all hootin' and hollering and firm I will juump on your wagon, maybe haha, I think also as was stated previously the passage of this cutter will impavct model runs starting sat maybe 12z. Of course I am hopeful but not excited yet. Thanks for all the analysis and updates, truly appreciated.

[sroc4]

Quiuck update from my perspective on 12z GFS and 12z CMC. GFS did in fact start showing that pesky s/w that wants to knock down the WC ridge. The result was a much less amplified soln and a track further SE. CMC continues the same as well.

However, even if this s/w is correct and it knocks down the WC ridge it doesnt mean it cant or wont snow. I think it will hinder the ceiling for how amplified and therefore how high snow totals can reach. Id say with a DE amplifying ridge and using a 10:1 ratio that would limit this storm to 8-12" in general. That said the air mass is very cold so some areas will likely see higher ratios, but less QPF..again IF the s/w knocks down the ridge. There is of course the chance it prevents the interactions between the N & S southern streams which leads to a miss S&E like Euro yesterday showed. However that is currently the outlier soln for sure and I personally am not thinking that extreme happens.

Now the difference between the GFS and CMC today is simply the timing and positioning of the southern piece. CMC holds it back so more interaction and higher QPF. GFS runs the southern energy quickly out front of the N/S, so less interaction in time so less QPF and weaker storm further SE along the coast.

Lets see how Euro plays out. Remember everything we see today regarding timing positioning and strength is still subject to change, and likely will, when we get to Sat and Sunday model runs.


We Track!!

[heehaw453]

What happens to this western ridge probably has big impacts on the outcome for Monday night/Tuesday.  The Euro has been hinting at a s/w pushing down on the ridge. As the trough rounds the bend the more robust that ridge is the more chance amplification occurs with the front s/w that will pull in S/S energy.  The 12Z GFS starting to hint at that ridge getting disturbed by a s/w too.

What does that mean that the GFS is hinting at this? Not necessarily much ATTM as that area needs better sampling to determine s/w strength and interactions. But what I'm looking for is how does guidance start trending tomorrow. That may be more of the ultimate truth than what we see now and today I believe volatility reigns supreme.

[heehaw453]

Quiuck update from my perspective on 12z GFS and 12z CMC.  GFS did in fact start showing that pesky s/w that wants to knock down the WC ridge.  The result was a much less amplified soln and a track further SE.  CMC continues the same as well.

However, even if this s/w is correct and it knocks down the WC ridge it doesnt mean it cant or wont snow.  I think it will hinder the ceiling for how amplified and therefore how high snow totals can reach.  Id say with a DE amplifying ridge and using a 10:1 ratio that would limit this storm to 8-12" in general.  That said the air mass is very cold so some areas will likely see higher ratios, but less QPF..again IF the s/w knocks down the ridge.  There is of course the chance it prevents the interactions between the N & S southern streams which leads to a miss S&E like Euro yesterday showed.  However that is currently the outlier soln for sure and I personally am not thinking that extreme happens.    

Now the difference between the GFS and CMC today is simply the timing and positioning of the southern piece.  CMC holds it back so more interaction and higher QPF.  GFS runs the southern energy quickly out front of the N/S, so less interaction in time so less QPF and weaker storm further SE along the coast.

Lets see how Euro plays out.  Remember everything we see today regarding timing positioning and strength is still subject to change, and likely will, when we get to Sat and Sunday model runs.  


We Track!!  

I think our clocks and minds are synced at times

[sroc4]

Quiuck update from my perspective on 12z GFS and 12z CMC.  GFS did in fact start showing that pesky s/w that wants to knock down the WC ridge.  The result was a much less amplified soln and a track further SE.  CMC continues the same as well.

However, even if this s/w is correct and it knocks down the WC ridge it doesnt mean it cant or wont snow.  I think it will hinder the ceiling for how amplified and therefore how high snow totals can reach.  Id say with a DE amplifying ridge and using a 10:1 ratio that would limit this storm to 8-12" in general.  That said the air mass is very cold so some areas will likely see higher ratios, but less QPF..again IF the s/w knocks down the ridge.  There is of course the chance it prevents the interactions between the N & S southern streams which leads to a miss S&E like Euro yesterday showed.  However that is currently the outlier soln for sure and I personally am not thinking that extreme happens.    

Now the difference between the GFS and CMC today is simply the timing and positioning of the southern piece.  CMC holds it back so more interaction and higher QPF.  GFS runs the southern energy quickly out front of the N/S, so less interaction in time so less QPF and weaker storm further SE along the coast.

Lets see how Euro plays out.  Remember everything we see today regarding timing positioning and strength is still subject to change, and likely will, when we get to Sat and Sunday model runs.  


We Track!!  

I think our clocks and minds are synced at times  

Great minds think alike Heehaw lol

[dkodgis]

A weather board that deals in ultimate truths is my kind of weather board

[amugs]

WPC not buying at OTS solution and keeps upping the ante precip.

[jmanley32]

Quiuck update from my perspective on 12z GFS and 12z CMC.  GFS did in fact start showing that pesky s/w that wants to knock down the WC ridge.  The result was a much less amplified soln and a track further SE.  CMC continues the same as well.

However, even if this s/w is correct and it knocks down the WC ridge it doesnt mean it cant or wont snow.  I think it will hinder the ceiling for how amplified and therefore how high snow totals can reach.  Id say with a DE amplifying ridge and using a 10:1 ratio that would limit this storm to 8-12" in general.  That said the air mass is very cold so some areas will likely see higher ratios, but less QPF..again IF the s/w knocks down the ridge.  There is of course the chance it prevents the interactions between the N & S southern streams which leads to a miss S&E like Euro yesterday showed.  However that is currently the outlier soln for sure and I personally am not thinking that extreme happens.    

Now the difference between the GFS and CMC today is simply the timing and positioning of the southern piece.  CMC holds it back so more interaction and higher QPF.  GFS runs the southern energy quickly out front of the N/S, so less interaction in time so less QPF and weaker storm further SE along the coast.

Lets see how Euro plays out.  Remember everything we see today regarding timing positioning and strength is still subject to change, and likely will, when we get to Sat and Sunday model runs.  


We Track!!  

I think our clocks and minds are synced at times  

Great minds think alike Heehaw  lol

8-12?Thats a disappointment? I know we all want a godzilla but 6+ IMBY I would be elated. And my shoulder is feeling better so in superstitions since I may actually be able to shovel it might bode well for it to actually happen. Maybe I was the screw job for the coast last one...

[MattyICE]

Looks like the 12z Euro op has halted and slightly reversed the SE slip. It doesn’t make massive jumps in one run but hopefully it’s a sign of additional ticks. With the Ukie and CMC still on the warmer side I think we’re ok for now. Still 4-5 days out.

[sroc4]

Looks like the 12z Euro op has halted and slightly reversed the SE slip. It doesn’t make massive jumps in one run but hopefully it’s a sign of additional ticks. With the Ukie and CMC still on the warmer side I think we’re ok for now. Still 4-5 days out.

Agreed. Euro typically walks itself towards the final soln; whereas the GFS tends to be a bit more extreme with run to run variability. So far both models seem to be living up to that. Good spot right now

[heehaw453]

So the 12Z Euro kind of stopped getting worse. Need the ridge to hold. You want to see heights rise with a more neutral tilt to the trough and that allows the S/S energy to be scooped up so to speak. That's how this becomes a big deal. I'm not pessimistic on where we are. If anything what we tend to see is a more amped up system as the S/S tends to be underdone by the models and I think the PNA is pretty good at least initially. So let's see.

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