January 2024 Observations and Discussion

WWA issued for NENJ and southern westchester/nyc.

It is actually good for many on the board.
quote="aiannone"]ooof 18z nam is rough


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The trough feature is shown nicely on the SREFs. This is probably your largest accumulations. So Monmouth/Ocean could do well.  I don't think it's going to be dramatic cutoff until you get towards I84 in NY State.

Below is forecast discussion from Mt Holly. Even if it busts cannot fault them for going all in based on the setup IMO.



A closed H5 low will move into the Northern Plains, upper Midwest
and upper Great Lakes tonight, with a trough extending down through
the lower Great Lakes and into the Ohio Valley. One area of low
pressure will develop off the coast of Cape Hatteras, while a
secondary low will form several hundred miles west of that low. The
primary low drifts out to sea on Friday while the secondary low
works its way across the region Friday before merging with the
offshore low and then pulling out to sea. Meanwhile, as the upper
trough approaches from the west, it will take on a negative tilt as
it moves towards the Northeast. With the negatively tilted trough
over the Northeast, can expect bands of snow to continue to develop
through Friday afternoon and into Friday evening even with the
surface low offshore.

Based on the latest model guidance, snowfall totals have increased
over the area. A stripe of 5 to 6 inches of snow with locally higher
amounts will develop across the central portion of the forecast
area, from Chester county, through Philadelphia, and across the I-
195 corridor in New Jersey. For these areas, the Winter Weather
Advisory was upgraded to a Winter Storm Warning. For Monmouth
county, now expecting in excess of 6 inches of snow, so upgraded to
a Winter Storm Warning there as well. Went ahead and added Cape May
county and the coastal strip to the Winter Weather Advisory. Although
there will be rain mixed with the snow due to easterly flow ushering
relatively warmer air off the ocean, snowfall totals have increased
to around 2 inches.

What to watch out for: Bands of heavier snow may enhance the wet
bulb effect, resulting in colder surface temperatures and higher
liquid to snow ratios. This will result in locally higher snow
amounts. Overall, liquid to snow ratios will be on the order of 14:1
to 17:1, but could get as high as 20:1.

A cold front then moves across the area Friday night and
temperatures tumble into the teens. Any untreated surfaces will
become icy.

I am thinking 1-2 inches is a reasonable call here in Edison, I can see how we double that but I think that is reasonable as I think I will be to the north of that band,

phil155 wrote:I am thinking 1-2 inches is a reasonable call here in Edison, I can see how we double that but I think that is reasonable as I think I will be to the north of that band,

I'm thinking we get the same subsidence-shunted 1.25" we got here on Monday, and we'll be happy that it's not tainted with the lovely "light glaze".

This storm has bust potential written all over it for peeps north and east. I84 corridor and east into Connecticut will get very little. Maybe 1-1.5 but I wouldn't be surprised if it just is a dusting. I'm already looking forward to next week's potential frozen precip event up here.

essexcountypete wrote:

phil155 wrote:I am thinking 1-2 inches is a reasonable call here in Edison, I can see how we double that but I think that is reasonable as I think I will be to the north of that band,

I'm thinking we get the same subsidence-shunted 1.25" we got here on Monday, and we'll be happy that it's not tainted with the lovely "light glaze".

I am expecting 1 to maybe 2 inches but hoping for an upside surprise but definitely not expecting it

You can't make this stuff up. I'm in Old Bridge with a WWA, 2 minutes north of Manalapan, 5 minutes north of Englishtown, and 15 minutes north of Freehold, which all have WSW.

State of NJ employees are closed. Remote work only. East Brunswick schools are closed. Monroe Twp has called an early dismissal. It's going to be a tough call with the timing of this storm. If schools do open, they run the risk of having difficulty getting children and staff home safely due to the fact that they must stay open for at least 4 hours of instructional time for it to count as a day. At 1:00 or 1:30 it may be treacherous. If my school doesn't close I'm going to take a half day just to be safe. Can't take the chance that they will worry about staff who have to travel to get back home.

snowday111 wrote:State of NJ employees are closed. Remote work only. East Brunswick schools are closed. Monroe Twp has called an early dismissal.  It's going to be a tough call with the timing of this storm. If schools do open, they run the risk of having difficulty getting children and staff home safely due to the fact that they must stay open for at least 4 hours of instructional time for it to count as a day. At 1:00 or 1:30 it may be treacherous. If my school doesn't close I'm going to take a half day just to be safe. Can't take the chance that they will worry about staff who have to travel to get back home.

fingers crossed they close not all t archers live in town..

snowday111 wrote:State of NJ employees are closed. Remote work only. East Brunswick schools are closed. Monroe Twp has called an early dismissal.  It's going to be a tough call with the timing of this storm. If schools do open, they run the risk of having difficulty getting children and staff home safely due to the fact that they must stay open for at least 4 hours of instructional time for it to count as a day. At 1:00 or 1:30 it may be treacherous. If my school doesn't close I'm going to take a half day just to be safe. Can't take the chance that they will worry about staff who have to travel to get back home.

That's a dumb call, looking for trouble there.

Irish wrote:

snowday111 wrote:State of NJ employees are closed. Remote work only. East Brunswick schools are closed. Monroe Twp has called an early dismissal.  It's going to be a tough call with the timing of this storm. If schools do open, they run the risk of having difficulty getting children and staff home safely due to the fact that they must stay open for at least 4 hours of instructional time for it to count as a day. At 1:00 or 1:30 it may be treacherous. If my school doesn't close I'm going to take a half day just to be safe. Can't take the chance that they will worry about staff who have to travel to get back home.

That's a dumb call, looking for trouble there.

Agree--hard to know what will be happening in NJ, wherever one lives...but keeping students and their busses off the roads should be a high priority when weather conditions are yet to be definitively determined...

Wow talk about being on the cusp of 1-2 or basically nothing, congrats to central and southern NJ. Those purple areas could see low end double digits with 20:1 ratios possible.

amugs wrote:

Jeez mugs. You can literally SEE upton on that map. Lol. Wild.

Hopefully that axis of heavy snow moves a bit north to the NYC area! Wouldn’t be surprised to see that happen. Or wouldn’t be surprised if we get under 1 inch either lol

silentwreck wrote:Hopefully that axis of heavy snow moves a bit north to the NYC area! Wouldn’t be surprised to see that happen. Or wouldn’t be surprised if we get under 1 inch either lol

Love the wish comment, whats ur scientific backing that it would come more north? LOL totally kidding, I hope so too but my guess is 0-4.

silentwreck wrote:Hopefully that axis of heavy snow moves a bit north to the NYC area! Wouldn’t be surprised to see that happen. Or wouldn’t be surprised if we get under 1 inch either lol

Hopefully it doesn't, stop trying to steal my snow.

Okayy Marlboro NY wayy upstate in hudson vallue has a early dismissal and is the only place in NY to have any thing, how odd. Is anyomne getting anything from the light snow moving through or is it virga?

Edison schools are closed tomorrow as well

phil155 wrote:Edison schools are closed tomorrow as well

NJ I get, many many schools in NJ are early dismissal, the WWA and WSW is for early morning to the evening so I am not sure why they are chancing that.

And yet I haven’t heard of any closings in Ocean or Monmouth Counties, only delayed openings. Which makes no sense. At all. But anyhoo,

Here are the goal posts for the Jersey Shore from about mid Ocean County on up to Sandy Hook and for most of those interior counties as well. This I’m feeling pretty sure of. I have no idea about anything as far as what to expect. So just hoping for the best for all of us.

Wow 18z and ooz models shifted the IVT jackpot area south of the WSW...Look at HRRR ZZZZZZ, It ialso cut WAY back on snow totals even in the highest areas, thats maybe 4-5 now atlantic city and just north as you go north from there 1-4 basically, The WSW may be canceled if these last minute changes are for real.

jmanley32 wrote:

phil155 wrote:Edison schools are closed tomorrow as well

NJ I get, many many schools in NJ are early dismissal, the WWA and WSW is for early morning to the evening so I am not sure why they are chancing that.

Kids are very happy, some of them don’t care if it snows they just want to sleep in and hang out. When i was young a snow day was an opportunity to make some money shoveling. No kids ever come around anymore looking to shovel. I don’t get it

phil155 wrote:

jmanley32 wrote:

phil155 wrote:Edison schools are closed tomorrow as well

NJ I get, many many schools in NJ are early dismissal, the WWA and WSW is for early morning to the evening so I am not sure why they are chancing that.

Kids are very happy, some of them don’t care if it snows they just want to sleep in and hang out. When i was young a snow day was an opportunity to make some money shoveling. No kids ever come around anymore looking to shovel. I don’t get it

Me too, I used to make bank. I understand why, way to dangerous to have kids just going to random houses nowadays. recipe for various things, good way to never see ur kids again. Plus I think you have to be at least 12 to go out on your own without an adult but not sure.

Our school district has early dismissal tomorrow, per NWS heaviest snows in the early afternoon, so trying to get them home before it hits. When my kids were in school, they never closed for a little snow event. Only expecting about 2" here.