January 2024 Observations and Discussion

In DC with my Scout troop and got my first snow fall in years

23* for low winds are finally calm 5mph nw

26 degrees, clouds "lowering and thickening", calm winds.Went from blue skies and sunny this morning to cloudy with a snow look now.

I'm ready to measure even if its just a few inches. But ut oh....look closely in my mulch...spring has sprung already

SkiSeadooJoe wrote:I'm ready to measure even if its just a few inches. But ut oh....look closely in my mulch...spring has sprung already

Hey Joe, that spring scene will be a winter one shortly! Send us a photo tomorrow for comparison.Hope all the Shore and LI Crew gets a nice snowpack from this!

27 degrees, thick grey Stratus snow clouds, calm wind.

That smiling face reminds me of CP

20* for my low this morning - it's coming!!
Do not count out Thursday/Friday storm - look what happened with todays. Case in point and NW trends all winter long

Some real winter temps on tap this week. Highs in the 20s and lows flirting with single digits. That's real BN cold in any book around here.

SkiSeadooJoe wrote:I'm ready to measure even if its just a few inches. But ut oh....look closely in my mulch...spring has sprung already

Wow Joe did your pic ever bring some happy memories!

The before and the beautiful after from Jan 29, ‘22.




C’mon Shore, let’s show our heart and overachieve tonight! Or better yet, how about a prelude for Friday!!

Small sparse flakes, 28* and grey skies right now. Radar looks like it’s not sure if it wants to fill in over Central Jersey now or wait until later this evening.

Snowing in New Hope, 28*

Morning. 11 degrees this am. Light eind. Gusts to 23 mphish
Any snow not shoveled nor removed, frozen. What’s left is not pretty either to walk on

Ok so I know some of you are not superstitious, but I am.. a little.  Keeping it in the LR thread hasn't worked.  Starting separate threads def hasn't worked...for some.  So lets take Fridays discussion here.  Its in between.  After all it is the Jan Observation AND discussion thread.  And since its January, its not a separate thread, and the system we are discussing is no longer in the LR this seems the most reasonable.  

Its looking like this Fridays system is going to be a minor event at best.  There is def an Inverted Trough(IVT) signature for sure, but the full details of IVT's can be extremely diff to forecast even as it unfolds let alone at this lead time. Quite honestly they are often times now cast situations where surprises aren't uncommon.  

This is also looking like a very high ratio snow event too, so even minor bumps up in QPF can have meaningful impacts.  anywhere from 15:1-25:1 ratios I think are likely depending on your exact location.  

There is no doubt that additional shifts to exact set up and track of the primary Low and IVT, etc. are still possible and Id argue likely, for better OR worse, so hang tight on throwing in towels yet.  If you see 20-25:1 ratios but only get 0.1" of QPF that's still 2-2.5" of nice light fluffy snow accumulation.  Keep that in mind today.  

Here are a few of the global and short range models and their current total QPF forecasts for this event.  

0.5” qpf could be 10” of snow

Good post Sroc! Nice waking up to snow on the ground and 16*!! Love it.

8 degrees at 8:13 in the am, Low last night 7 degrees , stay warm!
   Good Luck !

9.8 low this morning

14* for my low this morning - a total deep winter feel this morning - have not had this since 2021 after the 3 day snowstorm

Got down to 12* this morning with a snow-covered landscape. Any side roads/driveways that weren't plowed or salted yesterday were a sheet of ice.

With the snow covered ground if we have clear skies tonight could see it getting into the single digits but it looks like some cloud cover may move in late which will likely keep temps in the low teens tonight.

Hot off the presses WPC 15Z issued. Focusing on central & NE NJ/NYC. 40-50% chance of at least 4" of snow. Based on the ULL pass that's probably a good of area as any.

Hey, I can live with 2 or 3" Friday to freshen up my light snow cover. Heck, if I could get a nice 2-4" snow event every few days I would sign up. Especially since I'm hoping we still have shots at a more significant storm(s) in February and March. Despite the marginal snow amounts so far, this winter's pattern is NOT the same as the last two years, so I certainly won't write off snow chances in February and March which sometimes are our snowiest months.

SROC great post and yes ratios will be 20-30:1 just as was last storm overall.
A would assume a NW jog with this system due to the weather memory of pattern and storm tracks the past 2 months as everything has ticked NW.
NAM is most likely overdone with the QPF but the RGEM has had the better handle on our last few snowstorms. The NAM's though have sniffed out the warm nose in the last two so you have to know how to use each model for it strengths.

12Z GFS and RGEM have cut back on precip amounts
GFS


RGEM


Still 20:1 ration are for .15" a 3" snowfall if it verifies as such
15:1 is 2.5"
10:1 is 1.5"

As long as none is lost to Virga!!! The next most dreaded wintertime hex mechanism to SUBSIDENCE!!

Frank_Wx wrote:0.5” qpf could be 10” of snow

that would b nuts. 0.6+ could be a godzilla wouldnt that be something uncommon. Will the high ratios hold for nyc area too? I am not put my expectations that high but 3 to 4 or 3 to 6 would be a decent storm a few inches ill even take.

heehaw453 wrote:Hot off the presses WPC 15Z issued. Focusing on central & NE NJ/NYC. 40-50% chance of at least 4" of snow. Based on the ULL pass that's probably a good of area as any.

is that at 10:1 or taking into consideration higher ratios.

3k NAM gives warning criteria snows to CNJ n SNJ with ratios

Yes Mugs you used the dreaded word Virga which I wasn't going to bring up until later tomorrow.  lol  

For those who want to see it the IVT is the kink in the contours to the isobars outlined in the thick black lines.  The axis is highlighted in yellow, and the precip shield as you can see extends well west from where the center of the Primary LP center is, which in this image is all the way in the middle right side of the image.  Again the exact shape of the contours and the axis of etc all dictate the details.  These thing s can, but not always, overperform very very easily, esp with high ratios.  

The Canadian shows how close this is to being much more. What is most important is the ULL strength as it hits coast. The models are showing it rapidly strengthening as it hits the coast. That's so much different story in terms of upside. It's a matter of is it in time or not? Watch this progression. 2 hours earlier strengthening would make huge implications on sensible weather.  

That's an attention getter...

sroc4 wrote:Yes Mugs you used the dreaded word Virga which I wasn't going to bring up until later tomorrow.  lol  

For those who want to see it the IVT is the kink in the contours to the isobars outlined in the thick black lines.  The axis is highlighted in yellow, and the precip shield as you can see extends well west from where the center of the Primary LP center is, which in this image is all the way in the middle right side of the image.  Again the exact shape of the contours and the axis of etc all dictate the details.  These thing s can, but not always, overperform very very easily, esp with high ratios.  

That's indicative of a strengthening ULL. Good things, good things.