January 2024 Observations and Discussion

The Canadian shows how close this is to being much more. What is most important is the ULL strength as it hits coast. The models are showing it rapidly strengthening as it hits the coast. That's so much different story in terms of upside. It's a matter of is it in time or not? Watch this progression. 2 hours earlier strengthening would make huge implications on sensible weather.  

That's an attention getter...

sroc4 wrote:Yes Mugs you used the dreaded word Virga which I wasn't going to bring up until later tomorrow.  lol  

For those who want to see it the IVT is the kink in the contours to the isobars outlined in the thick black lines.  The axis is highlighted in yellow, and the precip shield as you can see extends well west from where the center of the Primary LP center is, which in this image is all the way in the middle right side of the image.  Again the exact shape of the contours and the axis of etc all dictate the details.  These thing s can, but not always, overperform very very easily, esp with high ratios.  

That's indicative of a strengthening ULL. Good things, good things.

jmanley32 wrote:

heehaw453 wrote:Hot off the presses WPC 15Z issued. Focusing on central & NE NJ/NYC. 40-50% chance of at least 4" of snow. Based on the ULL pass that's probably a good of area as any.

is that at 10:1 or taking into consideration higher ratios.

That's a good question. Not sure it's accounting for ratios on that. Certainly though with -12c h7 temps ratios could be 15:1 or better.

A brisk 20* in coastal Monmouth County, with a slight breeze, a beautiful blanket of snow on all the grassy surfaces and tree limbs (🥰), and ice…everywhere()!

As a Jersey Shorite, all I can say to these last few posts by Mugs, SRoc and HeeHaw is .  

For those who wish to join me in (light-hearted) prayer:

The favorable trends for the Shore and other areas should increase, and not decrease; the precip shield should expand throughout the forum and not contract; the ULL should strengthen earlier and not later; and there should be no show killers, like Virga or Subsidence to deprive of us of His heavenly bounty.

Can I get an Amen?!

If I had to place a bet - and I must be crazy since IVTs are mostly unpredictable - I would place SNJ in the jackpot for this one. 2-4” as much as 6”

Frank_Wx wrote:If I had to place a bet - and I must be crazy since IVTs are mostly unpredictable - I would place SNJ in the jackpot for this one. 2-4” as much as 6”

This is where you may puke snow at this time in the black circle. It can all change in the next set of runs . Norluns love to move N from experience and it usually does but time will tel.

Okay if this model has any use at this time. If it is 1/2 correct gonna be a lot of unhappy folks in Delaware.




Its the new experimental model as explained:

Rapid Refresh Forecast System
GSL, NCEP/EMC, and other partners are working together on a project to design a single-model, convection-allowing, ensemble-based data assimilation, and forecasting system called the Rapid Refresh Forecast System (RRFS).



Within the NOAA model unification effort, the RRFS represents the evolution of the NAM, RAP, HRRR, and HREF systems to a new unified deterministic and ensemble storm-scale system. This new system is targeted for initial operational implementation in late 2024 as a planned replacement for the NAMnest, HRRR, HiResWindows, and HREF.

The main reason we don't see a closed off ULL with this is the spacing issues discussed before. There's not clean separation between the waves. It's like putting half a cover over a fire. It's really the only thing IMO that prevents this from being a sig event. If somehow that improves you'd see a closed off ULL and this dropping major accumulations.

Is there any chance that can happen?

heehaw453 wrote:The main reason we don't see a closed off ULL with this is the spacing issues discussed before. There's not clean separation between the waves. It's like putting half a cover over a fire. It's really the only thing IMO that prevents this from being an sig event. If somehow that improves you'd see a closed off ULL and this dropping major accumulations.

12z EURO is UGGGLYYY...

tomsriversnowstorm wrote:Is there any chance that can happen?

heehaw453 wrote:The main reason we don't see a closed off ULL with this is the spacing issues discussed before. There's not clean separation between the waves. It's like putting half a cover over a fire. It's really the only thing IMO that prevents this from being an sig event. If somehow that improves you'd see a closed off ULL and this dropping major accumulations.

I don't think clean spacing is in the cards per se, so there's a cap on potential IMO

2 things come to mind to possibly push this to 5-6", 1/inverted trough enhancement, 2/the ULL strengthens earlier due to better phasing. and these are not mutually exclusive.

Euro is almost a big fat nothing burger. It more than just wave spacing as to why it stays flat and progressive. To me this is a big red flag. Ill give this to the morning.

sroc4 wrote:Euro is almost a big fat nothing burger.  It more than just wave spacing as to why it stays flat and progressive.  To me this is a big red flag.  Ill give this to the morning.  

Could also be there are several main pieces of energy that don't merge. That certainly doesn't help, but I think that wouldn't be a problem if heights weren't getting dampened by the wave in front. It's hard to tilt negative and close off when something is pressing on its ability to do so.

And like I was saying was before I think 1-3" is an excellent expectations setter. Could over perform but I think synoptically that range is appropriate.

heehaw453 wrote:And like I was saying was before I think 1-3" is an excellent expectations setter. Could over perform but I think synoptically that range is appropriate.

Agree 100%

Mount Holly's latest snowfall prog. 3" to increase snowpack works for me. we'll see.

Upton has much lower totals that dont match mt holly where the two reporting stations meet. Basically 1 to 2 but mention max possible 4 to 6. Anything more than 1 inch will be good. 3 to 4 or 4+ would be great! Too bad this did not keep the godzilla potential but its not uncommon.

aiannone wrote:12z EURO is UGGGLYYY...

Where's the dislike button? Not for Alex but definitely for the Euro.

Here is Upton's

heehaw453 wrote:

sroc4 wrote:Euro is almost a big fat nothing burger.  It more than just wave spacing as to why it stays flat and progressive.  To me this is a big red flag.  Ill give this to the morning.  

Could also be there are several main pieces of energy that don't merge. That certainly doesn't help, but I think that wouldn't be a problem if heights weren't getting dampened by the wave in front. It's hard to tilt negative and close off when something is pressing on its ability to do so.

Yes but equally important is the pna ridge. It’s just not steep enough. It’s axis is way to slanted from NW at its apex to SE on its eastern flank. This also does not allow any northern stream energy to dig into or even create really any real trough. It just kind of slips into the back side and stays progressive. I think if the ridge axis was ironed better in the N S direction it would dig causing some consolidation of energy which in turn would challenge the wave spacing idea. Personally it appears we have both working against. And I agree on your totals as again a very low amount of QPF will lead to quick accumulations. This just has so much potential if we could have gotten just a little help from the western side of things.

And for the record of the wipers were to be on we still have 24more hrs to swing back NW a tick by 12z tomorrow so nothing is set in stone yet.

heehaw453 wrote:Mount Holly's latest snowfall prog. 3" to increase snowpack works for me. we'll see.

22 degrees, partly cloudy, breezy.
Nice to see 3 inch totals on this map! That would be great for our snowpacks and with the cold coming in, we will have them until Weds.

heehaw453 wrote:Mount Holly's latest snowfall prog. 3" to increase snowpack works for me. we'll see.

Hmmm …I wonder why the approx 30-40% reduction in totals along the immediate Jersey coastline? At my own risk, I’m disregarding that and just using the 3.3/3.4” listed for all the other Monmouth and Ocean county points that are just east of the dark blue.

docstox12 wrote:

heehaw453 wrote:Mount Holly's latest snowfall prog. 3" to increase snowpack works for me. we'll see.

22 degrees, partly cloudy, breezy.
Nice to see 3 inch totals on this map! That would be great for our snowpacks and with the cold coming in, we will have them until Weds.

This would work for me as well. To have a snowpack for almost an entire week would be the best we’ve had in at least 2 years.

WPC moved the NORLUN over the NYC Metro ala NOV 2018.



They smocking some good stuff or are teh onto something using the newest guidance model I posted earlier.

amugs wrote:WPC moved the NORLUN over the NYC Metro ala NOV 2018.



They smocking some good stuff or are teh onto something using the newest guidance model I posted earlier.

It's changed 18Z. Ingested the Euro data. LoL

I'm really hoping we can hit this bar for this storm...

RGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ
316 PM EST Wed Jan 17 2024

NJZ001-007>010-012>015-PAZ054-055-060>062-103-105-181100-
/O.NEW.KPHI.WW.Y.0003.240119T0500Z-240120T0000Z/
Sussex-Warren-Morris-Hunterdon-Somerset-Middlesex-
Western Monmouth-Eastern Monmouth-Mercer-Carbon-Monroe-Berks-
Lehigh-Northampton-Western Montgomery-Upper Bucks-
Including the cities of Newton, Washington, Morristown,
Flemington, Somerville, New Brunswick, Freehold, Sandy Hook,
Trenton, Jim Thorpe, Stroudsburg, Reading, Allentown, Bethlehem,
Easton, Collegeville, Pottstown, Chalfont, and Perkasie
316 PM EST Wed Jan 17 2024

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM MIDNIGHT THURSDAY NIGHT
TO 7 PM EST FRIDAY...

* WHAT...Snow expected. Total snow accumulations of 2 to 4
inches.

* WHERE...Portions of central, northern and northwest New Jersey
and east central, northeast and southeast Pennsylvania.

* WHEN...From midnight Thursday night to 7 PM EST Friday.

* IMPACTS...Plan on slippery road conditions. The hazardous
conditions could impact the morning or evening commute.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Temperatures will rapidly drop into the
teens late Friday night. Any untreated roads will become icy and
dangerous.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Slow down and use caution while traveling.

The latest road conditions for the state you are calling from can
be obtained by calling 5 1 1.