January 2024 Observations and Discussion

phil155 wrote:

jmanley32 wrote:

phil155 wrote:Edison schools are closed tomorrow as well

NJ I get, many many schools in NJ are early dismissal, the WWA and WSW is for early morning to the evening so I am not sure why they are chancing that.

Kids are very happy, some of them don’t care if it snows they just want to sleep in and hang out. When i was young a snow day was an opportunity to make some money shoveling. No kids ever come around anymore looking to shovel. I don’t get it

Me too, I used to make bank. I understand why, way to dangerous to have kids just going to random houses nowadays. recipe for various things, good way to never see ur kids again. Plus I think you have to be at least 12 to go out on your own without an adult but not sure.

Our school district has early dismissal tomorrow, per NWS heaviest snows in the early afternoon, so trying to get them home before it hits. When my kids were in school, they never closed for a little snow event. Only expecting about 2" here.

Dunnzoo wrote:Our school district has early dismissal tomorrow, per NWS heaviest snows in the early afternoon, so trying to get them home before it hits. When my kids were in school, they never closed for a little snow event. Only expecting about 2" here.

Nj is always the first in the tri state to close for everything. Doesn’t take much lol. LI is like ehh you can make it.

Nada for me and around tye NW BC area. Wait n see call is there approach

I’d be happy with that Mount Holly call of 4-6, even 2-5 like my weather app forecasts. Hoping for surprises and no busts for all.

NAM has 3-4 for southern NJ wow, 0.5 (snow) for NE NJ and NYC lol

Take the SREFs for FWIW. The trend ain't good.  Been showing noticeably since 12Z. Just be guarded on this.

heehaw453 wrote:Take the SREFs for FWIW. The trend ain't good.  Been showing noticeably since 12Z. Just be guarded on this.

https://mediastorage453.blob.core.windows.net/public/sref-all-mean-ma-total_precip_inch-1705611600-1705795200-1705795200-40.gif

NAM and HRRR agree. I think this busts for all, maybe a very light snow for far Southern NJ.

Even if this busts NWS handled it correctly IMO. Short window of time and have to go by what's in front of you. Models are what they are... But then again let's see.

Dude stop being so negative. Most of jersey will see snow. Just a matter of how much. All the models are showing some snow for Jersey.

jmanley32 wrote:

heehaw453 wrote:Take the SREFs for FWIW. The trend ain't good.  Been showing noticeably since 12Z. Just be guarded on this.

https://mediastorage453.blob.core.windows.net/public/sref-all-mean-ma-total_precip_inch-1705611600-1705795200-1705795200-40.gif

NAM and HRRR agree. I think this busts for all, maybe a very light snow for far Southern NJ.

In a normal winter this would be a non event. Shows you how bad winters have become, that a possible 1-3 gets this much attention. Such a sad state of affairs

All i know is its cold and as I get older makes the cold sucks. An inch of snow throughout the day will make it interesting how the schools react.

phil155 wrote:Edison schools are closed tomorrow as well

I never thought I would use the line “back in my day”

…but back in my day, school was NEVER canceled for 1-3” of snow

West Orange NJ schools announced they will be closed hours ago. I don't understand if we are going to be North of the primary snow why they called it for only 1-2 inches. I know the timing is bad for the commute and all but didn't think this storm was worth a snow day.

Any other model guidance come in over the last hour to support lower snow totals in NNJ?

25* here as snow is just moving into the area. May be some virga out front with this but radar shows the storm on our doorstep.

jmanley32 wrote:

phil155 wrote:

jmanley32 wrote:

phil155 wrote:Edison schools are closed tomorrow as well

NJ I get, many many schools in NJ are early dismissal, the WWA and WSW is for early morning to the evening so I am not sure why they are chancing that.

Kids are very happy, some of them don’t care if it snows they just want to sleep in and hang out. When i was young a snow day was an opportunity to make some money shoveling. No kids ever come around anymore looking to shovel. I don’t get it

Me too, I used to make bank. I understand why, way to dangerous to have kids just going to random houses nowadays. recipe for various things, good way to never see ur kids again. Plus I think you have to be at least 12 to go out on your own without an adult but not sure.

We never really shoveled alone, there were usually 2 of us and we stayed in the neighborhood and everyone knew one another for the most part. Back when I was younger if we got 5 or 10 dollars a house we were good, granted that was almost 40 years ago lol

These are 10:1 ratios. Since this will be a higher ratio event you can add roughly 1”-1.5” to some of these I’d say:
06z NAM:


HRRR:

billg315 wrote:These are 10:1 ratios. Since this will be a higher ratio event you can add roughly 1”-1.5” to some of these I’d say:
06z NAM:


HRRR:

Wow. Pretty depressing last second tick for most on this board. Even the northern part of the Shore saw their totals cut down a lot from what most of the guidance showed yesterday afternoon.

And aside from the southward movement of the trough, now the forecast is for like 5-6 hours of snow instead of the 10-12 hours it was showing yesterday.

Oh well, time to nowcast and hope for some last moment positive developments…which are definitely known to happen…

Frank_Wx wrote:

phil155 wrote:Edison schools are closed tomorrow as well

I never thought I would use the line “back in my day”

…but back in my day, school was NEVER canceled for 1-3” of snow

LOL, starting to see some road behind you there!
I had patients in my Dental Practice from snow belt areas that would laugh at NJ closing schools for 6 inches.They all went in with 12 inches or more!

phil155 wrote:

jmanley32 wrote:

phil155 wrote:

jmanley32 wrote:

phil155 wrote:Edison schools are closed tomorrow as well

NJ I get, many many schools in NJ are early dismissal, the WWA and WSW is for early morning to the evening so I am not sure why they are chancing that.

Kids are very happy, some of them don’t care if it snows they just want to sleep in and hang out. When i was young a snow day was an opportunity to make some money shoveling. No kids ever come around anymore looking to shovel. I don’t get it

Me too, I used to make bank. I understand why, way to dangerous to have kids just going to random houses nowadays. recipe for various things, good way to never see ur kids again. Plus I think you have to be at least 12 to go out on your own without an adult but not sure.

We never really shoveled alone, there were usually 2 of us and we stayed in the neighborhood and everyone knew one another for the most part. Back when I was younger if we got 5 or 10 dollars a house we were good, granted that was almost 40 years ago lol

Back in the early 1960's. we would get a buck apiece but had cheaparses trying to knock us down to 50 cents each,LOL.Anything to make a buck back then, cut lawns, wash and wax cars, property maintenance, etc.Those were the work ethic days with nothing else really to do, no computers, devices ,and only 7 channels in black and white mostly on tv,LOL.No sex, booze or drugs either so you went to school and did part time jobs to make a buck,LOL.

20 degrees, cloudy, calm wind.Radar looks pretty good and still hoping for an inch or two but recent maps shifting this South.

Remember these are models and models are imperfect. We’ve all seen storms overperform (storm intensifies quicker, moves out slower, has more moisture etc) and underperform (moves quicker, slow to develop, subsidence). So just have to nowcast and see how it performs now.
That said I think 3-5” from Philly south and east, 2-4” in Central NJ south of I-78, and 1-3” north of that is a pretty fair call at the moment.

billg315 wrote:Remember these are models and models are imperfect. We’ve all seen storms overperform (storm intensifies quicker, moves out slower, has more moisture etc) and underperform (moves quicker, slow to develop, subsidence). So just have to nowcast and see how it performs now.
That said I think 3-5” from Philly south and east, 2-4” in Central NJ south of I-78, and 1-3” north of that is a pretty fair call at the moment.

Totally agree with your call here. I think we need a positive development or two to see the upper end of those totals, but not a miracle or anything. Let’s see…

Radar for central and northern NJ seems to look a lot better than what it looked like an hour ago…

Light snow 24.2/20.3 expecting between 2-3" IMBY. That's pretty much atmospheric memory at this point in these parts.

27.3 down 3 degrees since the onset. Dew point is 23.9 up 2 degrees. Moderate snow Oaklyn, Camden County.

Upton's latest attempt. I’d be shocked and thrilled if I end up with 2-3” given the trends over the past 12-24-48hrs in the hi res modeling.

Let’s go you little inverted/Norlun trough beeotch. Show that unpredictability that everyone talks about.

Good luck everyone.