January 2024 Observations and Discussion

Nws upped my totals around nyc to 2 to 3 from 1 to 2 with a max wcs of 5. So the increase though small was nice to see. Lets see what happens but looking at morning SR they all agree basically on SENJ as frank stated for the jackpot.

skinsfan1177 wrote:

where did you get that one that includes nyc area?

Strengthening ULL always much better position to be than a weakening one as it approaches the coast. I'm setting my backyard bar at 3".

NWS has me in Gloucester County, NJ at 4-6”? But no Winter Storm warning just advisory?

If the trailing energy is able to catch up with the front energy then this will over perform. That happens if the trailing energy is able to get better phasing with the TPV and then curl the heights on the EC higher. Exactly what the NAM showed 00Z last night.

DWay wrote:NWS has me in Gloucester County, NJ at 4-6”? But no Winter Storm warning just advisory?

I think the bar for your area is 5". From their latest forecast output it's really close, but probably just not enough confidence to do so. Could be an upgraded though if models trend more aggressive.

skinsfan1177 wrote:

I hope for the city especially in Manhattan we get five or 6 inches I don’t wanna work overtime tomorrow night lol

skinsfan1177 wrote:

Jman, here’s your “axis centered on Philadelphia, but best snow from Cape May to I-84” that we were talking about last night

Prettey sure WWA will be expanded at least into the HWO area as amounts by NWS warrent it even north of NYC. In fact going by briefing not sure why hasn't already.

0Z HREF - overdone -?? Probably 0Z NAM throws this askew?
Lets see what the 12Z has - probably cuts it down

rb924119 wrote:

skinsfan1177 wrote:

Jman, here’s your “axis centered on Philadelphia, but best snow from Cape May to I-84” that we were talking about last night

that 4 to 6 is pretty far south of I-84 and isnt anywhere near I-84 in NY but we will see. With ratios hoping to see more than 2 to 3 but rn thats my expectation. Do the NWS maps take into consideration higher ratios? Ill have look at discussion it might say.

amugs wrote:0Z HREF - overdone -?? Probably 0Z NAM throws this askew?
Lets see what the 12Z has - probably cuts it down

be positive mugs lol ur likely right though. But this likely will have surprises.

jmanley32 wrote:

rb924119 wrote:

skinsfan1177 wrote:

Jman, here’s your “axis centered on Philadelphia, but best snow from Cape May to I-84” that we were talking about last night

that 4 to 6 is pretty far south of I-84 and isnt anywhere near I-84 in NY but we will see. With ratios hoping to see more than 2 to 3 but rn thats my expectation. Do the NWS maps take into consideration higher ratios? Ill have look at discussion it might say.

It’s a swath of 3-6” within that zone. You’re always going to have a band of max totals within the broader zone of “best snow”, which I said would be focused on Philadelphia. My point was that it’s not going to be a narrow band that’s 30 miles wide that jackpots with everywhere else getting substantially less. The higher totals will be spread out over a much broader area, and this map is a great example of that. That’s the point I was trying to make lol

12km and 3km nam not too impressed even SENJ but 12z HRRR is impressive even into northern nj and nyc. Central and southern NJ with ratios could be 8 plus inches. Nyc area and NENJ 3 to 5. Lets see what rgem shows and sref.

Frank_Wx wrote:Going to be an interesting day of tracking tomorrow. Hopefully someone on here gets under a classic IVT band and gets dumped on. Rooting for ya SENJ

On behalf of the entire Jersey Shore and even our more northern-based Coasties, thank you kindly Frank.

No complaining from me about the present imby outlook obviously, but no complacency either. Since just the 00z runs from last night, I’ve seen the jackpot hit the NW part of the board and also swing way South towards southern Ocean County and below. And the model totals still show runs as low as 1-2” imby.

But now less than 24 hours out, to be in the consensus cross hairs with potential amounts and predictions showing a growing upside…doesn’t get any better!

Strangely the Shore jackpots a lot…when it gets snow. Far more frequent is that we are south of the 540 line or the storm tucks too close. But when we’re  not either of those, we can do very well.

All right, that’s enough out of me for now. I’m hitting radio silence. I’ll be refreshing this board every 2-3 minutes of course, and will try stay active by liking good news/feel good posts. But otherwise, I’m keeping my mush-mouth shut for a bit!

NWS DISCO upton mentions a possible need to increase coverage of the WWA but are holding off for now. Probably till 12z are done or maybe even 00z. Still keeping my expectations to what NWS shows and will be super happy to see more.

22 degrees, cloudy, calm winds.
Did a few chores in town, 3 1/2 inch snowpack, ponds frozen, bitter cold and slate grey filtered sun sky with possible flurries and a possible inch or two tomorrow.The scenario is thus.A bit of what used to be called winter in the season of Wall.I will take it!!

Light snow/flurries falling here now, a bit unexpected based on the forecasts and how low the humidity is. Didn't think whats on the radar would reach the ground.

edit: tough to get a picture of them falling but very tiny flakes on the bricks:

same here, light flurries at 27 degrees and 40% humidity.

So happy to just have snow on the ground and son still home he leaves Sunday...so whatever we get tom..will keep him home and we can get our last hang in...

And oops I spy dog poop so out I go ..currently 28* we had a low of 18* this morning

weatherwatchermom wrote:


So happy to just have snow on the ground and son still home he leaves Sunday...so whatever we get tom..will keep him home and we can get our last hang in...

And oops I spy dog poop so out I go ..currently 28* we had a low of 18* this morning

LOL,Mom, you need a Super Duper Pooper Scooper from Ronco.

22 degrees light flurries here.

NWS has upped my snow forecast for tomorrow as has Accuweather from the original 1-3/2-4 projections. Work obligations keeping me from looking too closely at this until this evening, but it does seem a consensus is forming for a more robust system.

New Hope NWS--4-7" through Friday night!


A chance of snow, mainly after 4am. Cloudy, with a low around 24. Calm wind. Chance of precipitation is 30%. New snow accumulation of less than a half inch possible.

Snow. High near 30. Northeast wind 5 to 10 mph. Chance of precipitation is 100%. New snow accumulation of 3 to 5 inches possible.

Snow likely, mainly before 11pm. Cloudy during the early evening, then gradual clearing, with a low around 13. Northwest wind 5 to 10 mph. Chance of precipitation is 60%. New snow accumulation of 1 to 2 inches possible.

Snow flurries coming in

Yup, wife says it's been nice steady light snow for about an hour now up in Hopatcong. Nice little refresher of the snowpack.

Hoping for great things for our central/southern crew with this one. If we squeak out another 2-3 inches up here in Sussex, that's a bonus. Still have about 2 inches OTG from the last storm so no complaints. Maybe we all end up with a nice 4-6 inch snowpack by tomorrow night, state-wide.

When's the last time that happened?

Was able to take a (very) quick look at latest model runs. Interesting that the totals for my area have been upped to 3-5/4-6". That is consistent with some of the short range guidance and the HRRR. But the NAM, GFS, Euro still seem more consistent with a 1-3/2-4 inch event.