JAN 6th-7th Storm Part II

toople wrote:

rb924119 wrote:Just for the record, I know that I haven’t put out an official forecast map like Frank, but some personal friends asked me to look at the forecast for them, and I put out the following numbers based on my analysis and a couple hypotheses that I’m testing:

Allentown, PA: 7-11”
Northeastern PA (generally speaking north and west of Rt. 209): 11-17”

Now, we can generally extrapolate those boundaries for a rough idea for the rest of the area….



Dark blue: 11” contour
Medium blue: 7” contour
Light blue: 3” contour

Again, this is only a rough approximation because I haven’t been able to do a full analysis. But at least it gives a very broad demonstration of what I’m thinking.

7 inches for Nutley NJ!?!? Well, I hope you’re right.  Eitherway, thank you so much spending time watching the storm. I enjoy reading them.

toople wrote:

rb924119 wrote:Just for the record, I know that I haven’t put out an official forecast map like Frank, but some personal friends asked me to look at the forecast for them, and I put out the following numbers based on my analysis and a couple hypotheses that I’m testing:

Allentown, PA: 7-11”
Northeastern PA (generally speaking north and west of Rt. 209): 11-17”

Now, we can generally extrapolate those boundaries for a rough idea for the rest of the area….



Dark blue: 11” contour
Medium blue: 7” contour
Light blue: 3” contour

Again, this is only a rough approximation because I haven’t been able to do a full analysis. But at least it gives a very broad demonstration of what I’m thinking.

7 inches for Nutley NJ!?!? Well, I hope you’re right.  Eitherway, thank you so much spending time watching the storm. I enjoy reading them.

essexcountypete wrote:

toople wrote:

rb924119 wrote:Just for the record, I know that I haven’t put out an official forecast map like Frank, but some personal friends asked me to look at the forecast for them, and I put out the following numbers based on my analysis and a couple hypotheses that I’m testing:

Allentown, PA: 7-11”
Northeastern PA (generally speaking north and west of Rt. 209): 11-17”

Now, we can generally extrapolate those boundaries for a rough idea for the rest of the area….



Dark blue: 11” contour
Medium blue: 7” contour
Light blue: 3” contour

Again, this is only a rough approximation because I haven’t been able to do a full analysis. But at least it gives a very broad demonstration of what I’m thinking.

7 inches for Nutley NJ!?!? Well, I hope you’re right.  Eitherway, thank you so much spending time watching the storm. I enjoy reading them.

Hey, another Nutley neighbor! We're in the zone of uncertainty here in eastern Essex County, aren't we? Each run has us just inside the sharp cutoff, or just outside. I swear we go from .5" on one run, and then 7" on the next. I'm afraid we're too close to the coastal plain and lack the elevation to stay all snow, but I guess we'll see.

docstox12 wrote:toople you are spot on with elevations and microclimate.I am up on a hill over 700 feet and down below ,there is always a few inches less of snow.Once there was an ice storm up here and nothing below.A degree or two can make a difference.

essexcountypete wrote:

toople wrote:

rb924119 wrote:Just for the record, I know that I haven’t put out an official forecast map like Frank, but some personal friends asked me to look at the forecast for them, and I put out the following numbers based on my analysis and a couple hypotheses that I’m testing:

Allentown, PA: 7-11”
Northeastern PA (generally speaking north and west of Rt. 209): 11-17”

Now, we can generally extrapolate those boundaries for a rough idea for the rest of the area….



Dark blue: 11” contour
Medium blue: 7” contour
Light blue: 3” contour

Again, this is only a rough approximation because I haven’t been able to do a full analysis. But at least it gives a very broad demonstration of what I’m thinking.

7 inches for Nutley NJ!?!? Well, I hope you’re right.  Eitherway, thank you so much spending time watching the storm. I enjoy reading them.

Hey, another Nutley neighbor! We're in the zone of uncertainty here in eastern Essex County, aren't we? Each run has us just inside the sharp cutoff, or just outside. I swear we go from .5" on one run, and then 7" on the next. I'm afraid we're too close to the coastal plain and lack the elevation to stay all snow, but I guess we'll see.

MattyICE wrote:This looks to be well ahead of schedule timing wise. That frequently happens. In earlier, out quicker. Not sure what sort of implications that might have at the upper levels, but since it’s dynamic cooling by way of heavy rates that allows temps to stop from rising into the mid-30s, I wonder if a sooner onset can mitigate how high temps might have risen if it were a later onset. In a set up where every degree matters maybe I’m just grasping at straws. Lol.

jmanley32 wrote:I heard irs snowing in western ct already so is it in ny?

rb924119 wrote:

jmanley32 wrote:I heard irs snowing in western ct already so is it in ny?

If it is, it’s just a stray flurry/snow shower - the column still has to saturate quite a bit before it really gets going.

jmanley32 wrote:

rb924119 wrote:

jmanley32 wrote:I heard irs snowing in western ct already so is it in ny?

If it is, it’s just a stray flurry/snow shower - the column still has to saturate quite a bit before it really gets going.

yeah i saw radar not moving in until this afternoon. How much u think min and max imby b ray. Im in ur 7 inch zone i believe

Frank_Wx wrote:Current temps



Current RH



My final call snow map



I did move the snow line S&E a bit. However, nothing in my thoughts changed with this being a mostly N&W Mothrazilla with pockets of 12”+ possible.

toople wrote:

MattyICE wrote:This looks to be well ahead of schedule timing wise. That frequently happens. In earlier, out quicker. Not sure what sort of implications that might have at the upper levels, but since it’s dynamic cooling by way of heavy rates that allows temps to stop from rising into the mid-30s, I wonder if a sooner onset can mitigate how high temps might have risen if it were a later onset. In a set up where every degree matters maybe I’m just grasping at straws. Lol.

I don’t see anything yet here

rb924119 wrote:

jmanley32 wrote:

rb924119 wrote:

jmanley32 wrote:I heard irs snowing in western ct already so is it in ny?

If it is, it’s just a stray flurry/snow shower - the column still has to saturate quite a bit before it really gets going.

yeah i saw radar not moving in until this afternoon. How much u think min and max imby b ray. Im in ur 7 inch zone i believe

I think you answered your own question hahaha 7-11”