Re: JAN 9th-10th Flooding Threat

by **jmanley32** Tue Jan 09, 2024 10:45 am

rb924119 wrote:
jmanley32 wrote:
rb924119 wrote:Flurries starting here, slight breeze. Tons of snow still on the trees, with up to 2” more before it gets soaked and heavy. Terrific
I guess good with the bad right, at least your getting to see snow for the 2nd time, though its gonna weigh on trees and exacerbate flooding potential.

Third time haha If I get 2” today I’ll be at 20” for the season so far. I’m not worried about flooding here at the house, because we are on top of a mountain, but down in town might get ugly lol the wind is the scariest part, by far, but I’m hoping my forecast is on track and it doesn’t get too bad lol not sure if you noticed in my picture, but we’re surrounded by really big and tall timber haha I’ve seen gusts to about 40 mph so far in western PA, so, so far, so good lol

Moderate snow now, going on a half-inch.

Winds that high already? That doesn't bode well as its not even close to being near full force is it over there? Yeah will let you know how it gets here right now cold and dead calm. Wouldn't even know a storm is coming.

by **rb924119** Tue Jan 09, 2024 10:52 am

Yeah, that’s about on track, I think.

by **jmanley32** Tue Jan 09, 2024 10:56 am

rb924119 wrote:Yeah, that’s about on track, I think.

Is timing still on track for winds to pick up around noon to 2 and rain to start and then the higher winds begin to ramp up from 6pm to 6am as the warning states that's the time frame (talking about here). Wanting to plan this evening as I sometimes stay late but should I head home at 5 or 6? I know the worst is much later but models show fairly strong winds well before.

by **brownie** Tue Jan 09, 2024 11:10 am

Raining here. It started a few minutes ago as snow, but quickly changed over. I still have a few inches of complete snow cover on my property, so hope it melts before the deluge starts.

by **rb924119** Tue Jan 09, 2024 11:25 am

jmanley32 wrote:
rb924119 wrote:Yeah, that’s about on track, I think.
Is timing still on track for winds to pick up around noon to 2 and rain to start and then the higher winds begin to ramp up from 6pm to 6am as the warning states that's the time frame (talking about here). Wanting to plan this evening as I sometimes stay late but should I head home at 5 or 6? I know the worst is much later but models show fairly strong winds well before.

Probably between 3-5pm for you it’ll start ramping up.

by **frank 638** Tue Jan 09, 2024 11:31 am

by **phil155** Tue Jan 09, 2024 11:42 am

jmanley32 wrote:Wow NWS has increased the max wind gust map significantly IMBY by 15+ mph. they also mention not only will gusts be to 65mph in and around nyc, and 70 mph on coast but that locally HIGHER gusts meaning hurricane force could happen. I couldn't copy and past the snippet but it is in the briefing. Area of heaviest rain also shifted a bit. At this point its pretty much nowcast time.

https://www.weather.gov/media/okx/01092024_am_public.pdf

I think their wind ma is pretty good but max winds are very difficult to predict

by **docstox12** Tue Jan 09, 2024 11:46 am

Moderate snow here now.

by **jmanley32** Tue Jan 09, 2024 11:58 am

phil155 wrote:
jmanley32 wrote:Wow NWS has increased the max wind gust map significantly IMBY by 15+ mph. they also mention not only will gusts be to 65mph in and around nyc, and 70 mph on coast but that locally HIGHER gusts meaning hurricane force could happen. I couldn't copy and past the snippet but it is in the briefing. Area of heaviest rain also shifted a bit. At this point its pretty much nowcast time.

https://www.weather.gov/media/okx/01092024_am_public.pdf

I think their wind ma is pretty good but max winds are very difficult to predict

Oh no doubt but the potential is there for some pretty serious winds uncommon to the area, even the coast and LI aren't really often impacted by the winds possible.

by **jmanley32** Tue Jan 09, 2024 11:59 am

frank 638 wrote:

Don't blow away! Stay safe and avoid travel you know how the parkways get, I am going to try to leave work on time today. Hunker down have the flashlights ready is all I can really do, living in a apartment does have it's advantages. Power loss is the only real concern. The basement can flood but that's not my responsibility.

by **rb924119** Tue Jan 09, 2024 12:02 pm

UH OH. Just had our first gust of wind lol wasn’t a big one, but a sign of things to come haha

Approaching 1.5” on the ground, still snowing.

by **amugs** Tue Jan 09, 2024 12:05 pm

Umm Houston - what's with the increase in speed please??

JAN 9th-10th Flooding Threat - Page 7 GDah5AbWkAUwcOA?format=jpg&name=small

by **GreyBeard** Tue Jan 09, 2024 12:08 pm

Light rain by me. City and Long Island all rain. Easterly wind at 14 mph. Looks like rain everywhere but the far northwest corner of New Jersey, northern PA. and Hudson Valley and points north but looks like changeover is not far behind.

Rain and Snow line

by **1190ftalt** Tue Jan 09, 2024 12:16 pm

Snowing pretty good at 12:03 in the pm, sticking to roads and cars, 32 degrees now so, might pick up an inch ?
Good Luck !

JAN 9th-10th Flooding Threat - Page 7 3a9b4a10

JAN 9th-10th Flooding Threat - Page 7 460ebf10

JAN 9th-10th Flooding Threat - Page 7 91558a10

by **CPcantmeasuresnow** Tue Jan 09, 2024 12:20 pm

33° and moderate snow for the last hour, what a beautiful winter landscape on top of the 9.5 inches that fell Saturday night.

What a wicked tease will there even be anything left by Wednesday morning? Doubt it.

by **jmanley32** Tue Jan 09, 2024 12:22 pm

Didn't realize started raining and a bit breezy (that is accentuated by the funnel effect in downtown new Rochelle).

by **rb924119** Tue Jan 09, 2024 12:22 pm

55 mph gust in northwestern PA……oyyy

by **docstox12** Tue Jan 09, 2024 12:23 pm

CPcantmeasuresnow wrote:33° and moderate snow for the last hour, what a beautiful winter landscape on top of the 9.5 inches that fell Saturday night.

What a wicked tease will there even be anything left by Wednesday morning? Doubt it.

Same here, CP.Enjoying every minute of the amazing disappearing snow pack.Guess these days maybe a few days is all we are going to get.Guess we go to rain soon.

by **jmanley32** Tue Jan 09, 2024 12:23 pm

amugs wrote:Umm Houston - what's with the increase in speed please??

Wow that is a big change on the GFS, well it is in line with NWS, maybe this is why they upped everything? What did NAM 3km look like if you have it? Thats impressive for GFS I gotta say those are NAM numbers.

by **rb924119** Tue Jan 09, 2024 12:23 pm

CPcantmeasuresnow wrote:33° and moderate snow for the last hour, what a beautiful winter landscape on top of the 9.5 inches that fell Saturday night.

What a wicked tease will there even be anything left by Wednesday morning? Doubt it.

There might be, CP, and just think, it’ll be a true glacier if there is haha more resistant to the melting that is inevitably coming to your backyard told ya

by **docstox12** Tue Jan 09, 2024 12:24 pm

rb924119 wrote:55 mph gust in northwestern PA……oyyy

Holy crow, rb, not even a twig moving here yet.

by **SENJsnowman** Tue Jan 09, 2024 12:24 pm

docstox12 wrote:Moderate snow here now.

Been some 50 weeks since I’ve been able to say that! Lol! Enjoy the calm, and a safe rain and wind storm to all today/tonight!

by **jmanley32** Tue Jan 09, 2024 12:25 pm

rb924119 wrote:55 mph gust in northwestern PA……oyyy

Oy is right, sounds like less inversion? If that's the case then we should all be ready for all hell to break loose here. Did you see mugs post of GFS wind map, that's a extreme increase from previous which I believe had like 50-60 max. It looks more like a NAM run, in fact thats what I thought it was. Anyone have the 3km NAM map? does it match the GFS at all?

by **rb924119** Tue Jan 09, 2024 12:29 pm

docstox12 wrote:
rb924119 wrote:55 mph gust in northwestern PA……oyyy
Holy crow, rb, not even a twig moving here yet.

Yeah there’s just a slight breeze here too so far, nothing wild yet lol

by **rb924119** Tue Jan 09, 2024 12:30 pm

jmanley32 wrote:
rb924119 wrote:55 mph gust in northwestern PA……oyyy
Oy is right, sounds like less inversion? If that's the case then we should all be ready for all hell to break loose here. Did you see mugs post of GFS wind map, that's an extreme increase from previous which I believe had like 50-60 max. It looks more like a NAM run, in fact thats what I thought it was. Anyone have the 3km NAM map? does it match the GFS at all?

Idk, I didn’t look at the situation out there when I did my analysis last night lol I can get the wind map for you.

by **rb924119** Tue Jan 09, 2024 12:33 pm

by **rb924119** Tue Jan 09, 2024 12:35 pm

I think is overdone for the coast, but I like how it enhances the gusts in the same areas that I have relative to areas around them lol

by Sponsored content