JAN 9th-10th Flooding Threat

I think is overdone for the coast, but I like how it enhances the gusts in the same areas that I have relative to areas around them lol

rb924119 wrote:I think is overdone for the coast, but I like how it enhances the gusts in the same areas that I have relative to areas around them lol

Oh yeah if we see 80 mph gusts id be surprised, GFS has ticked up to almost 70mph IMBY so that would not be good if even one happened. Not too many trees in my exact area but outages nearby often trickle down effect and we go out.

rb924119 wrote:

docstox12 wrote:

rb924119 wrote:55 mph gust in northwestern PA……oyyy

Holy crow, rb, not even a twig moving here yet.

Yeah there’s just a slight breeze here too so far, nothing wild yet lol

oh I thought that was you, where are you at again?

jmanley32 wrote:

rb924119 wrote:

docstox12 wrote:

rb924119 wrote:55 mph gust in northwestern PA……oyyy

Holy crow, rb, not even a twig moving here yet.

Yeah there’s just a slight breeze here too so far, nothing wild yet lol

oh I thought that was you, where are you at again?

The complete opposite end of the state haha that observation was for about 60 miles north of Pittsburgh lol I’m between Scranton and Port Jervis haha

Hey, I just wanted to share this because it is a FANTASTIC resource for keeping tabs on local observations:



It’s the private network of personal weather stations. Click on one, and you can pull up all daily observations, and even historical observations for a particular station. I figured it would be cool for people to know about, if they don’t already, since I’ve been seeing quite a few new posters in here lately, which is awesome

rb924119 wrote:I think is overdone for the coast, but I like how it enhances the gusts in the same areas that I have relative to areas around them lol

I think and yes hope it is a bit overdone overall and I would think 75-80% of that is what is really likely. With that said I think we are probably looking at a longer period of sustained winds in the 25-40mph range with gusts to 50ish and the higher numbers like 60+ when the line gets here(I still expect the strongest winds along the coastal areas) and then the winds dying down quite a bit for a time until picking back up tomorrow but from the NW

I could be wrong and probably will be, you guys have a lot more experience than I do but this is how I see it

phil155 wrote:

rb924119 wrote:I think is overdone for the coast, but I like how it enhances the gusts in the same areas that I have relative to areas around them lol

I think and yes hope it is a bit overdone overall and I would think 75-80% of that is what is really likely. With that said I think we are probably looking at a longer period of sustained winds in the 25-40mph range with gusts to 50ish and the higher numbers like 60+ when the line gets here(I still expect the strongest winds along the coastal areas) and then the winds dying down quite a bit for a time until picking back up tomorrow but from the NW

I could be wrong and probably will be, you guys have a lot more experience than I do but this is how I see it

Hey, your opinion is no more or less valid than anybody else’s haha besides, you have support from the NWS, so your reasoning is not unfounded.

74mph gust reported in Dunkirk, NY, a favorable location for downsloping winds... YIKES

So far zero wind at the Jersey Shore. I guess it looks like the wind will not verify for us.

aiannone wrote:74mph gust reported in Dunkirk, NY, a favorable location for downsloping winds... YIKES

Have to check the winds on Mt Washington tomorrow. the winds up there are rough

I may have to race that Mountain again this year

tomsriversnowstorm wrote:So far zero wind at the Jersey Shore. I guess it looks like the wind will not verify for us.

I live in Toms River on the water. Definitely getting windy here.

aiannone wrote:74mph gust reported in Dunkirk, NY, a favorable location for downsloping winds... YIKES

Right on Lake Erie, that helps haha that got me worried that my forecast already busted lmfaoo I was like NOOOOOOOOO haha

tomsriversnowstorm wrote:So far zero wind at the Jersey Shore. I guess it looks like the wind will not verify for us.

Give it time.

tomsriversnowstorm wrote:So far zero wind at the Jersey Shore. I guess it looks like the wind will not verify for us.

The winds are nowhere near getting into the area yet.

Snowing pretty good here now, approaching 2”, and the wind is picking up lol the race to changeover is on.

My trees are just barely starting to wiggle lol

I think I am confused because places north of us are getting wind. Mind yiu I would love it not to happen. Also RB I thought you lived in LBI.

quote="rb924119"]

tomsriversnowstorm wrote:So far zero wind at the Jersey Shore. I guess it looks like the wind will not verify for us.

Give it time.[/quote]

rb924119 wrote:

purdy, hope to see this at some pt this year...

rb924119 wrote:

aiannone wrote:74mph gust reported in Dunkirk, NY, a favorable location for downsloping winds... YIKES

Right on Lake Erie, that helps haha that got me worried that my forecast already busted lmfaoo I was like NOOOOOOOOO haha

Yeah but that was expected they had HWW since sunday, we can't really extrapolate that to here. But clearly a intense storm as the max gusts there I believe is 70mph in the HWW, my sister is in syracuse area (Baldwinsville to be exact).

tomsriversnowstorm wrote:I think I am confused because places north of us are getting wind. Mind yiu I would love it not to happen. Also RB I thought you lived in LBI.

quote="rb924119"]

tomsriversnowstorm wrote:So far zero wind at the Jersey Shore. I guess it looks like the wind will not verify for us.

Give it time.

[/quote]

I know rb was smart enough to reside on LBI two winters ago when coastal Ocean county netted almost 3 feet of snow in a single January. But before that and after that? That carpetbagger wanted nothing to do with these parts.  

33 degrees, moderate rain, slight breeze.Snow began changing to rain around 12:30 here.

SENJsnowman wrote:

tomsriversnowstorm wrote:I think I am confused because places north of us are getting wind. Mind yiu I would love it not to happen. Also RB I thought you lived in LBI.

quote="rb924119"]

tomsriversnowstorm wrote:So far zero wind at the Jersey Shore. I guess it looks like the wind will not verify for us.

Give it time.

I know rb was smart enough to reside on LBI two winters ago when coastal Ocean county netted almost 3 feet of snow in a single January. But before that and after that? That carpetbagger wanted nothing to do with these parts.   [/quote]

lol, wth is a carpetbagger

rb924119 wrote:Hey, I just wanted to share this because it is a FANTASTIC resource for keeping tabs on local observations:

https://www.wunderground.com/wundermap

It’s the private network of personal weather stations. Click on one, and you can pull up all daily observations, and even historical observations for a particular station. I figured it would be cool for people to know about, if they don’t already, since I’ve been seeing quite a few new posters in here lately, which is awesome

I second that! I love checking out the local weather stations on this map. I wonder sometimes about how accurate they are though. They can show some whacky numbers sometimes.

I also like their 10-day forecast for quick reference. It's free and customizable, and a great way to "see" the weather if you like capturing information visually.
https://www.wunderground.com/forecast/us/nj/glen-ridge/KNJGLENR20

FWIW the 18z HRRR and the 12z 3k NAM seem to keep the heaviest rain in the NW portion of the state which is where the heaviest snow pack is. The flooding will be nasty and I am concerned that while what we will see later and tomorrow will be bad but that next storm while it probably wont be as intense as this one will be it wont have to be to cause very serious flooding. If we get a general 1.5-3 inches with this one and 1-2 inches with the next it will be very bad

phil155 wrote:FWIW the 18z HRRR and the 12z 3k NAM seem to keep the heaviest rain in the NW portion of the state which is where the heaviest snow pack is. The flooding will be nasty and I am concerned that while what we will see later and tomorrow will be bad but that next storm while it probably wont be as intense as this one will be it wont have to be to cause very serious flooding. If we get a general 1.5-3 inches with this one and 1-2 inches with the next it will be very bad

Yes I made mention of this yesterday as 1-2-3 punch. They always say things come in 3's. I think the flooding from this one will be serious enough and Sat will only exacerbate it more as rivers will be cresting mid to late week.