JAN 9th-10th Flooding Threat

Winds are picking up here, I do not have a wind gauge but it is definitely getting breezy for sure

Winds are starting to crank now

silentwreck wrote:Anyone has the latest HRRR?

Yes hearing winds are upped as are rainfall totals forn12Pm - 2AM 

Winds picking up here and had a strong gusts  before as are rains.

Delayed opening for school manana!!!

Sister in Belmar said 30 mph winds and 52 gusts with torrential rains.

The HWW area was consolidated and mentions isolated 70mph gusts possible (most likely over LI probably):

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service New York NY
333 PM EST Tue Jan 9 2024

CTZ008>012-NJZ006-NYZ071>075-078>081-176>179-101100-
/O.CON.KOKX.HW.W.0001.240109T2300Z-240110T1100Z/
Northern New London-Southern Fairfield-Southern New Haven-
Southern Middlesex-Southern New London-Hudson-
Southern Westchester-New York (Manhattan)-Bronx-
Richmond (Staten Island)-Kings (Brooklyn)-Northwest Suffolk-
Northeast Suffolk-Southwest Suffolk-Southeast Suffolk-
Northern Queens-Northern Nassau-Southern Queens-Southern Nassau-
333 PM EST Tue Jan 9 2024

...HIGH WIND WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 AM EST WEDNESDAY...

* WHAT...Southeast winds 30 to 40 mph with gusts up to 55 to 65
mph expected. Isolated gusts up to 70 mph possible.

* WHERE...Portions of southern Connecticut, northeast New Jersey
and southeast New York.

* WHEN...Until 6 AM EST Wednesday.

* IMPACTS...Damaging winds will blow down numerous tree limbs, as
well as scattered trees and power lines. Power outages are
likely. Travel will be difficult, especially for high profile
vehicles.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

People should avoid being outside in forested areas and around
trees and branches. If possible, remain in the lower levels of
your home during the windstorm, and avoid windows. Use caution if
you must drive.

winds are definitely howling right now, heavy rain in Astoria, NY 10 minute away from the city... Something tells me those winds are going to verify and rainfall will exceed 2 inches in this area, easily!

The NWS update 7:41

-- Changed Discussion --
Rain continues across the region and will only get heavier as
we head into the mid-evening thanks to strong warm advection/isentropic
lift and exceptional upper-level forcing associated with the
approaching closed low and strong jet streak aloft. As the warm
front lifts northward toward us this evening, temps will rise
into 50s for most of the region, possibly reaching 60 as far
north as Philadelphia. Surface winds will increase, with gusts
40-50 mph likely for most of the region and 60 to possibly 70
mph along the immediate coast. These strongest winds will occur
late this evening to around midnight. Further inland, confidence
in winds stronger than currently forecast is low, but could
occur if a low-topped squall line crosses the region with the
surface cold front overnight, also likely to be fairly close to
midnight. For now have included slight chance of thunder in the
forecast, but the chance of the squalls is greater since they
may not have any thunder. Rainfall still looks quite potent with
1-3 locally 4-5 inches.

Midnight - that's one heck of a squall line in NENJ

amugs wrote:Midnight - that's one heck of a squall line in NENJ

That's going to be one heck of a line! Heavy rain with rainfall rates over 1"/hr along with 60/70+ winds if it keeps it's intensity all the way to the coast...

So far so good with my forecast here, nothing seems to have been over 50mph in my beige zone that I can find. But I’m definitely overdone in my other two zones so far.

currently 52* pouring we have almost an 1.25 of rain..winds in low 20 no high gusts yet

and that sqaul line will be right over us

rb924119 wrote:So far so good with my forecast here, nothing seems to have been over 50mph in my beige zone that I can find. But I’m definitely overdone in my other two zones so far.

So far very very underwhelming here, just breezy, i would thought winds would kicked up a bit by now being this looks on HRRR to be over in 4 hrs or so with that squall at 12. It might be that that is the only think that will create that kind of wind. Question why is the HWW in effect until 6am if this basically drops below HWW criteria about 3 to 4 hrs earlier than that? IF the HRRR is right that is. So far your area of beige is the only place I have seen 50mph reported on here, no one in these areas is reporting any sig winds. As you said hardest thing to predict.

rb924119 wrote:So far so good with my forecast here, nothing seems to have been over 50mph in my beige zone that I can find. But I’m definitely overdone in my other two zones so far.

I hate rooting against you but i do not want to lose power. Nothing personal I just really don't want to lose power tonight

weatherwatchermom wrote:currently 52* pouring we have almost an 1.25 of rain..winds in low 20 no high gusts yet

and that sqaul line will be right over us

Same here unless it falls apart across river which if its like a t-storm line it will lol

Winds are picking up here

phil155 wrote:

rb924119 wrote:So far so good with my forecast here, nothing seems to have been over 50mph in my beige zone that I can find. But I’m definitely overdone in my other two zones so far.

I hate rooting against you but i do not want to lose power. Nothing personal I just really don't want to lose power tonight

No offense taken, trust me haha I’m not exactly rooting for higher winds either haha

Looks like this was in PA

Here is the squall line. It is very eerie looking. Soon to cross into SW NJ

MADONNE! This squall line coming into SNJ

The northern edge of the squall is plowing toward philly metro

frank 638 wrote:Wow
This looks like a summertime thunderstorm. Do you think this will make it up to NYC?

yes...11pm to midnight time frame

I would.think once that line comes through the worst is likely over but that line while very narrow looks like it means business. I hope it starts to dissipate a bit