Re: Long Range Thread 8.0

[amugs]

WSI has stated today on twitter that ENSO forcing has likely peaked.

[Frank_Wx]

Yes, I am noticing that a peak has occurred too.

[Frank_Wx]

Look for October to be much cool from a temp departure standpoint compared to September. I actually have a blog put together with my reasoning but I want to wait until models confirm the idea. October could start warm, but I do not expect it to last.

[dkodgis]

http://www.cnn.com/2015/09/17/world/earths-hottest-summer-ever/index.html

but the article touches on El Nino near the end. Frank, I love the crawler about having nothing to say about the boring weather. Funny!

[Frank_Wx]

http://www.cnn.com/2015/09/17/world/earths-hottest-summer-ever/index.html

but the article touches on El Nino near the end.  Frank, I love the crawler about having nothing to say about the boring weather.  Funny!

That was actually Scott who did that. I agree, it's funny. Weather truly is boring this month.

[amugs]

El Nino comparisons for the day with all of the talk about the comparison to 97-98.
You definitely want the forcing to shift out near or even west of the Dateline by the time
DJF comes around. 2010 and 1958 were examples of years when the forcing made it
far enough west to allow a colder and snowier solution for us. You can see how
we received the heavier snows  those two seasons and in 09-10 since a big piece
of the forcing/warm waters got west of the Dateline. This will be crucial IMHO for this upcoming winter and as I posted above or the last page the waters are moving west. Maybe the earthquake in Chile helped propagate this.

Look at the 180 Longitude on the maps - that is the dateline area - CRUCIAL with Nino for us this winter.




Now look at 72-73 and the forcing was not far enough west or near the dateline and we had a meek/mild winter



Oh we grew like a CHIA pet with our snow and ice extent in THE Arctic since I last posted !



Becoming very conducive to this growth up there.

[sroc4]

http://iri.columbia....mate-forecasts/

What is this? My firewall is preventing me from opening it. If there is no response to this I am going to remove the link. I encourage everyone to resist the urge to open this link for now.

[amugs]

Scott this is the linkthat chief was trying to post from the International research institute for climate and society out of Columbia University. The link posted is a broken link. Here is the correct one.
http://iri.columbia.edu/our-expertise/climate/forecasts/seasonal-climate-forecasts/

[sroc4]

Scott this is the linkthat chief was trying to post from the International  research institute for climate and society out of Columbia University. The link posted is a broken link. Here is the correct one.
http://iri.columbia.edu/our-expertise/climate/forecasts/seasonal-climate-forecasts/

Thanks Mugs. Sorry Chief. These days I'm skeptical.

[amugs]

No problem Scott. I hear you with these sites.

And for u my Arctic Nanook

What a Frickin recovery we have made I the last week up 5here, hope and I think it will continue go g forward these next two weeks. As I stated in a post last week that the conditions were conducive for snow and ice growth.

9/18 JAXA Arctic Sea Ice Extent: 4,502,176 square kilometers. That was an increase of 90,119 square kilometers.

[amugs]

I found this on line and this guy/ kid was very good with last winters prediction. Interesting to see what he has to say. Read and make your own conclusions.

http://weather.st/blog/winter-of-2015-2016-whats-the-verdict/

[snow247]

I found this on line and this guy/ kid was very good with last winters prediction. Interesting to see what he has to say. Read and make your own conclusions.

http://weather.st/blog/winter-of-2015-2016-whats-the-verdict/

   "This also pulls the bulk of the stormy weather in the northeast farther south than last year, setting up some above normal conditions into the Mid-Atlantic region."

[docstox12]

Yeah, let's hope NYC instead of Boston.

[amugs]

Good read on arctic sea ice from NOAA.
https://www.climate.gov/news-features/featured-images/2015-arctic-sea-ice-fourth-lowest-record

[nutleyblizzard]

Yeah, let's hope NYC instead of Boston.

You got that right Doc. A 100 inch season in the metro area would satisfy even the most eccentric snow weenie!

[Frank_Wx]

We're off to a bit of a head start when it comes to Siberian - Alaskan - Western Canadian snow cover compared to this time last year. Of course, this does not mean much in mid-September. This picture could look drastically different a month from now.



Interestingly enough, over the last month much of Siberia, or extreme tier of northern Russia, has experienced above normal heights. Only western Sibera has seen lower H5 heights (which makes sense to why that area has the highest snow cover at this time).



What matters most is how the Northern Hemisphere snow cover extent looks by the end of October into early November. Guidance insists lower heights will continue to reign over the Arctic Circle, western Canada, on into the western U.S. over the next couple of weeks. Siberia looks pretty transient. For the record, I have doubted Cohen's theory for many years now. I do not put as much weight into this Siberian snow cover theory mainly because I have not seen a year in which it overwhelmingly worked out for him. Take last October for example. Above normal heights (October 2014 H5 map below) persisted over Siberia through all of October - depleting the snow cover build up that occurred up to that point - yet our winter over the eastern U.S. was one of the coldest on record.



How Global SST's align, the position of the ENSO, and the states of the Sun and Stratosphere matter more to a winter outlook than snow cover in Siberia.

Lastly, much has been talked about in regards to the "bathtub" the Pacific is. It's worth noting over the last couple of weeks, maybe more, we've seen cooling in the northern Pacific and off the west coast of the U.S. (7-day change map below). We're seeing a lot of blocking through the Aleutians and Asia. Below normal heights have presided over the PNA/PDO regions which is why we have been warm on our side of the country.



Most long range forecasters this time of year are in "wait and see" mode. It will not be wise to jump to conclusions regarding ANY of these trends. We can speculate about the impact this would have on winter if it were to continue, but that does not usually lead to meaningful discussion. We'll see how we look in 6 weeks.

[Quietace]

We're off to a bit of a head start when it comes to Siberian - Alaskan - Western Canadian snow cover compared to this time last year. Of course, this does not mean much in mid-September. This picture could look drastically different a month from now.



Interestingly enough, over the last month much of Siberia, or extreme tier of northern Russia, has experienced above normal heights. Only western Sibera has seen lower H5 heights (which makes sense to why that area has the highest snow cover at this time).



What matters most is how the Northern Hemisphere snow cover extent looks by the end of October into early November. Guidance insists lower heights will continue to reign over the Arctic Circle, western Canada, on into the western U.S. over the next couple of weeks. Siberia looks pretty transient. For the record, I have doubted Cohen's theory for many years now. I do not put as much weight into this Siberian snow cover theory mainly because I have not seen a year in which it overwhelmingly worked out for him. Take last October for example. Above normal heights (October 2014 H5 map below) persisted over Siberia through all of October - depleting the snow cover build up that occurred up to that point - yet our winter over the eastern U.S. was one of the coldest on record.



How Global SST's align, the position of the ENSO, and the states of the Sun and Stratosphere matter more to a winter outlook than snow cover in Siberia.

Lastly, much has been talked about in regards to the "bathtub" the Pacific is. It's worth noting over the last couple of weeks, maybe more, we've seen cooling in the northern Pacific and off the west coast of the U.S. (7-day change map below). We're seeing a lot of blocking through the Aleutians and Asia. Below normal heights have presided over the PNA/PDO regions which is why we have been warm on our side of the country.



Most long range forecasters this time of year are in "wait and see" mode. It will not be wise to jump to conclusions regarding ANY of these trends. We can speculate about the impact this would have on winter if it were to continue, but that does not usually lead to meaningful discussion. We'll see how we look in 6 weeks.

Just a observation with no true implication yet: but look at the difference in Canadian snow cover near the Arctic Circle this year in comparision to last year.

[Frank_Wx]

Yup, not shocking though. That side of Canada has been very warm for awhile now. The ridge is cut off basically. That should change as we go through October.

[nutleyblizzard]

Just saw JB on the weather channel. He's calling for a cold/snowy in the east, yet its all dependent where the western ridge sets up. He also mentions to be on the lookout for recurving typhoons in late fall which could open the door for winter to start earlier than expected.

[amugs]

Just saw JB on the weather channel. He's calling for a cold/snowy in the east, yet its all dependent where the western ridge sets up. He also mentions to be on the lookout for recurving typhoons in late fall which could open the door for winter to start earlier than expected.

Nuts,

You still have the weather channel?? I have nada with verizon. That all important ridge in the west - if that Aleutian Trough sets up to close to NA then we see our winter go by the way of 72-73. The el nino forcing has a lot to do with this as well and in the charts I posted above talks to this. We need the trop forcing to be out near or west of the dateline in regions 3.4 and 4 - if they hang in 1.2 then we get torched and you me and everyone else will commit weenie suidcide

[chief7]

Scott this is the linkthat chief was trying to post from the International  research institute for climate and society out of Columbia University. The link posted is a broken link. Here is the correct one.
http://iri.columbia.edu/our-expertise/climate/forecasts/seasonal-climate-forecasts/

Thanks Mugs. Sorry Chief. These days I'm skeptical.

it's all good thanks mugs

[amugs]

Larry C posted an inside look to his beliefs on this upcoming winter, take a gander.
https://groups.google.com/forum/m/#!topic/weatheramerica/69XpTQlkWDY

Also, I read online that where the Aleutian Low positions itself in October is where it stays for the winter. Problem is that it is a very small sample size for El Nino years and 2002-03 and last year went against this idea. So, it once again leaves us up to playing the we shall see game.

Frank great analysis and we'll sEe where the ice and snow extent comes into play six weeks from now. BUT it has made a great recovery as I posted above since thus time a month agi. Not saying much at this stage but a good start like you said.

[dkodgis]

I wish there were a cigar club where all professional meteorologists could go and hang out and be professionals and not "wait and see" folks. TV weather has always reminded me, at least for the last 20 years, of the Harlem Globetrotters. You know they have super skills, you know they can play, but their primary purpose is to entertain. Everyone keeps it five-minute format and "weather" suffers. This is what drove me here to this board (plus the very funny posts and very nice people with good listening skills, good conflict mgt skills, and superior social skills). Is it going to rain? Is it going to snow? What is the temp today? <--are all good questions but why and how are the things I want to know and I get them here. Good visuals, good synthesis of facts to put complex ideas and topics within reach of readers, citations, and good banter=a fun place with good info. Thanks everyone for making the board what it is.

[docstox12]

I second that! The knowledge here is the best plus we have students studying the art and science of Meteorology.

Is there a good cigar club in Orange County? I'm forced outside by my beloved and I don't blame her,LOL! Problem is, when the cold weather hits, I have to give it up.Would be nice to sit in a nice leather chair with a bourbon and cigar watching a good game.

From what I am reading on this thread, our winter is very dependent on how the western ridge sets up and the exact position of the Nino.Stay tuned!!!

[dkodgis]

Doc, we will all be monitoring the ridge and the El Nino position ... because ... as I paraphrase Mugs... we are snow weenies! As for the cigars, it is on the deck for me and a heater out there keeps me alive until early Dec. Then I do the shed (man cave). However, even my wife has tried chick sticks...she is just not into them. Coming back to El Nino, may I ask if Joe Bastardi is still saying the cold winter trend is likely in 2015-2016?

[sroc4]

Doc, we will all be monitoring the ridge and the El Nino position ... because ... as I paraphrase Mugs... we are snow weenies!  As for the cigars, it is on the deck for me and a heater out there keeps me alive until early Dec.  Then I do the shed (man cave).  However, even my wife has tried chick sticks...she is just not into them.  Coming back to El Nino, may I ask if Joe Bastardi is still saying the cold winter trend is likely in 2015-2016?

JB is def still on the cold train.  He has pointed out that the JMA (his favorite LR model), the Euro and the UKMET are all showing support.  The CFS cont to be the outlier, but he is not worried at this time.  Again still alot to monitor and alot can change.  This is a quote from Tomas Downs, a Met on the Weatherbell team that collaborates along with JB and a couple others to produce the winter forecast.  This is what Mugs has been touting.  

"For the winter forecast, the most important thing may be how the Nino1+2 region responds. If it continues to lag the Nino3.4 anomaly, a pattern like 1997-98 would be unlikely. This is the scenario that WeatherBell has anticipated for quite some time now.
There still is a chance for the Nino1+2 region to warm significantly. For that to happen there would have to be a decrease in the strength of the trade winds across the far eastern Pacific. This would shut down upwelling off the coast and the SSTs can respond very quickly (a matter of one or two weeks). To have long-lasting implications for the winter, however, those weak trade winds would have to remain for weeks on end, as any strengthening of the trades would promote rapid cooling.
So to put it bluntly, while Nino1+2 has the chance to overtake Nino3.4 as the warmest region, the odds are currently against it."

[nutleyblizzard]

Latest weekly ENSO readings shows that area 1.2 has warmed up since last week. Not a good thing if you want cold and snow. However models show that cooling will take place in the coming weeks so this should be only a temporary spike.

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