01/22/16-01/23/16 Update #1 - Historic Storm Possible

This storm is going to give us agita. There will be waffling over the next 2 days that will severely cut-off the snow amounts for those west and north of I-95. I have a feeling the ridge may go flat at a bad time for those area and the storm track may end up further east. I hope I am wrong for the sake of those places, but we'll see. I just do not trust the progressive flow at this time. The saving grace may be the block from the huge 50/50. But that mean we'll need organized phasing, not this double-barrel low stuff models are showing.

Frank_Wx wrote:This storm is going to give us agita. There will be waffling over the next 2 days that will severely cut-off the snow amounts for those west and north of I-95. I have a feeling the ridge may go flat at a bad time for those area and the storm track may end up further east. I hope I am wrong for the sake of those places, but we'll see. I just do not trust the progressive flow at this time. The saving grace may be the block from the huge 50/50. But that mean we'll need organized phasing, not this double-barrel low stuff models are showing.

Frank what are your thoughts on my write up above. Is a poorly timed occluded LP a factor here in addition to the western ridge concerns?

rb924119 wrote:

Frank_Wx wrote:This storm is going to give us agita. There will be waffling over the next 2 days that will severely cut-off the snow amounts for those west and north of I-95. I have a feeling the ridge may go flat at a bad time for those area and the storm track may end up further east. I hope I am wrong for the sake of those places, but we'll see. I just do not trust the progressive flow at this time. The saving grace may be the block from the huge 50/50. But that mean we'll need organized phasing, not this double-barrel low stuff models are showing.

Totally agree Frank. That's what I've been worried about this whole time, and I am fearful that the EURO is finally catching onto this idea.

This morning I was comparing the 12z EURO and 00z EURO runs and noticed the ridge de-amplified on the 00z run. Hopefully this is not a trend. There are ways to combat the flattening ridge but this is not a west-based -NAO block, it's a strong 50/50 ULL situated within the northern jet.

sroc4 wrote:

Frank_Wx wrote:This storm is going to give us agita. There will be waffling over the next 2 days that will severely cut-off the snow amounts for those west and north of I-95. I have a feeling the ridge may go flat at a bad time for those area and the storm track may end up further east. I hope I am wrong for the sake of those places, but we'll see. I just do not trust the progressive flow at this time. The saving grace may be the block from the huge 50/50. But that mean we'll need organized phasing, not this double-barrel low stuff models are showing.

Frank what are your thoughts on my write up above. Is a poorly timed occluded LP a factor here in addition to the western ridge concerns?

I'll read when I'm back at my desk. Mobile and in a meeting. You can tell where my priorities are.

When I first saw this system Saturday my concern was warm air pulling in and changing snow to rain from the coast back into central jersey which would be a close call for me (although probably wouldn't have affected those N and W). But I'm less concerned with that now. Now my concern is that the storm trends S and E and if there is a sharp cutoff the heavy stuff stays offshore and we just miss. My gut tells me this remains a close call right up to 24 hours out. The models all seem to agree on a major storm, no doubt, but the exact track is usually the last thing to set in stone. Remember, it's all about location, location, location.

And of course as soon as I type that I read Frank's post further adding to my concern about an east trend. Haha.

I think coastal areas will be in it big time even if it goes a bit SE NYC LI southern westchester, coastal NJ etc I m not sure need to worry.

Hmm this is reminding me of Juno and the cutoffs, I got only 10 inche from Juno, that was fine but a bust on the models part, now I would not complain about 10 inches but if we go through another Juno type last minute cutoff I may go bonkers lol.

Just a reminder to people that a trend for 1-2 days this far out means there is still time for things to trend back the final 1-3 days. No panic by what you see in models today

@Scott- nice write up. I also believe there is no CF involved in any of the models. As the trough goes negative, the surface low occludes and some energy ahead of the trough tries to develop a secondary LP. Nice point with the jet streaks. I would like to see more of the GFS solution - where the H5 low tracks more north instead of east and transfers energy near the Delmarva. This solution would bring MANY areas widespread Godzilla amounts.

sroc4 wrote:Just a reminder to people that a trend for 1-2 days this far out means there is still time for things to trend back the final 1-3 days. No panic by what you see in models today

Exactly, these next 2 days there will definitely be shifts in some models. But Wednesday evening into Thursday we may see the models shift back to their original idea. Lots of stuff to go over that is why I try to focus less on the models. Our overall pattern so far this year has been progressive hence my slight concern a de-amplifying ridge could be reality. But we have a block with this storm so it's not the same type of setup.

TWC showed GFS and EURO snow maps on TV. I swear they ruin the storm everytime they do this.... Shut the hell up you idiot hypers and dont jinx it...... Talking to TWC mets here, most of whom I hate because they suck.... Rant over.

i have been watch twc this morning and never saw a snow map just shaded areas.

Sheesh, 4 1/2 days out and twc online has me max of 13 inches and 90% chance of snow, I would say its a bit early to only leave a 10% window, is anyone here 90% sure of a godzilla? I guess its the hype strategy, then they can say well we didnt guarentee it if it doesnt pan out with that 10%. IMO though this thing is going to deliver, I understand the issues and concerns that have been spoken about but I just have a good feeling about this to be at least a godzilla.

NjWeatherGuy wrote:TWC showed GFS and EURO snow maps on TV. I swear they ruin the storm everytime they do this.... Shut the hell up you idiot hypers and dont jinx it...... Talking to TWC mets here, most of whom I hate because they suck.... Rant over.

Agree 100%.

Also hate seeing snow maps this far out with my area getting over 20 inches.KOD

The NWS WPC maps show the low going from directly over Atlanta to just off the NJ coast which would be a great track for the area. They also have NYC in the 60% already for at least .25 liquid qpf.

Bernie Rayno just put out a great video on his Twitter explaining what can go right, wrong, etc. with this potential. Really solid breakdown.

SoulSingMG wrote:Bernie Rayno just put out a great video on his Twitter explaining what can go right, wrong, etc. with this potential. Really solid breakdown.

Link?

sroc4 wrote:

SoulSingMG wrote:Bernie Rayno just put out a great video on his Twitter explaining what can go right, wrong, etc. with this potential. Really solid breakdown.

Link?

Sorry, on my phone so not sure if this'll work: http://bit.ly/1neoqGj

rb924119 wrote:

When looking at the low locations on the euro ens there is a very small number of LP well S of the mean. I believe this small cluster is skewing the mean a tad further south and east. The main cluster seems to be tucked up inside NW of the mean. We shall see how the next 48hrs shakes out.

Yeah I saw that. But, I'm looking at the 500 hPa spaghettis. For example, take a look at yesterday's 12z (top) versus last night's 00z (bottom):





See how there were a lot of members more amplified than the mean and Op at 12z? Now, there's actually a cluster of heights that is broader than 12z. We want the clustering inside of the mean, with it being skewed ONLY by outliers that are broader with the trough, not vice-versa. Hopefully it only a hiccup.

I see your point Ray. Its going to be a long 2-3 days.

SoulSingMG wrote:

sroc4 wrote:

SoulSingMG wrote:Bernie Rayno just put out a great video on his Twitter explaining what can go right, wrong, etc. with this potential. Really solid breakdown.

Link?

Sorry, on my phone so not sure if this'll work:  http://bit.ly/1neoqGj

Perfect thanks! I always enjoy his videos.

sroc4 wrote:

SoulSingMG wrote:

sroc4 wrote:

SoulSingMG wrote:Bernie Rayno just put out a great video on his Twitter explaining what can go right, wrong, etc. with this potential. Really solid breakdown.

Link?

Sorry, on my phone so not sure if this'll work:  http://bit.ly/1neoqGj

Perfect thanks!  I always enjoy his videos.  

Of course, my pleasure! Yeah, he's really one of my favorite METS; he's always very true to the meteorology of things & explanatory with his ideas.

hear we go again docs cp hyde I know it early but when  that SE trend starts to happen we know the deal!!! Lets hope that it goes northwest and makes everyone happy but this is the trend over the last few winter's.

Frank_Wx wrote:

sroc4 wrote:Just a reminder to people that a trend for 1-2 days this far out means there is still time for things to trend back the final 1-3 days. No panic by what you see in models today

Exactly, these next 2 days there will definitely be shifts in some models. But Wednesday evening into Thursday we may see the models shift back to their original idea. Lots of stuff to go over that is why I try to focus less on the models. Our overall pattern so far this year has been progressive hence my slight concern a de-amplifying ridge could be reality. But we have a block with this storm so it's not the same type of setup.

I'm thinking the same way Frank. We can only hope that today's runs stays the course, but I got that sinking feeling that they may shift SE only to correct NW later. Its to be expected though. I can't ever remember models locking in a solution a week out and not waffle with the track. I think March 93 was an exception.