Re: 01/22/16-01/23/16 Update #1 - Historic Storm Possible

by **jimv45** Mon Jan 18, 2016 10:23 am

hear we go again docs cp hyde I know it early but when that SE trend starts to happen we know the deal!!! Lets hope that it goes northwest and makes everyone happy but this is the trend over the last few winter's.

by **nutleyblizzard** Mon Jan 18, 2016 10:30 am

Frank_Wx wrote:
sroc4 wrote:Just a reminder to people that a trend for 1-2 days this far out means there is still time for things to trend back the final 1-3 days. No panic by what you see in models today

Exactly, these next 2 days there will definitely be shifts in some models. But Wednesday evening into Thursday we may see the models shift back to their original idea. Lots of stuff to go over that is why I try to focus less on the models. Our overall pattern so far this year has been progressive hence my slight concern a de-amplifying ridge could be reality. But we have a block with this storm so it's not the same type of setup.

I'm thinking the same way Frank. We can only hope that today's runs stays the course, but I got that sinking feeling that they may shift SE only to correct NW later. Its to be expected though. I can't ever remember models locking in a solution a week out and not waffle with the track. I think March 93 was an exception.

by Snowfall Mon Jan 18, 2016 10:39 am

I feel this is the one 12+nyc

by **aiannone** Mon Jan 18, 2016 10:45 am

12z GFS looks more progressive (flatter than 0z).

by **Frank_Wx** Mon Jan 18, 2016 10:47 am

12z GFS coming out now. Say a prayer.

By the way, love the look through hour 60. Better than 06z run.

by Guest Mon Jan 18, 2016 10:50 am

Frank_Wx wrote:12z GFS coming out now. Say a prayer.

By the way, love the look through hour 60. Better than 06z run.

We really are sick!!!!!! CMON western ridge hold your shape. 99% of the world hates snow and would be happy with a miss. Here we are all hoping to be buried. I LOVE IT!!!!!!!!

by **Frank_Wx** Mon Jan 18, 2016 10:57 am

Wow this is going to be huge

by **snow247** Mon Jan 18, 2016 10:59 am

GFS seems locked in..

by **weatherwatchermom** Mon Jan 18, 2016 10:59 am

SoulSingMG wrote:
sroc4 wrote:
SoulSingMG wrote:
sroc4 wrote:
SoulSingMG wrote:Bernie Rayno just put out a great video on his Twitter explaining what can go right, wrong, etc. with this potential. Really solid breakdown.

Link?

Sorry, on my phone so not sure if this'll work: http://bit.ly/1neoqGj

Perfect thanks! I always enjoy his videos.

Of course, my pleasure! Yeah, he's really one of my favorite METS; he's always very true to the meteorology of things & explanatory with his ideas.

Thank you for sharing that, he explained it perfectly....long week ahead...

by **nutleyblizzard** Mon Jan 18, 2016 10:59 am

Frank_Wx wrote:Wow this is going to be huge

Stronger storm or better ridge???

by **Quietace** Mon Jan 18, 2016 10:59 am

Frank_Wx wrote:Wow this is going to be huge

The agreement and continuity run to run is unparalleled in my opinion.

by **skinsfan1177** Mon Jan 18, 2016 11:00 am

hearing it looks slower as well

by Guest Mon Jan 18, 2016 11:00 am

Frank_Wx wrote:Wow this is going to be huge

I've never ever heard that before. I wish you were a woman!! Laughing

sorry to any ladies on here. Just a little humor. I'm giddy over the storm prospects.

by **snow247** Mon Jan 18, 2016 11:01 am

My god

by **Frank_Wx** Mon Jan 18, 2016 11:01 am

by **Frank_Wx** Mon Jan 18, 2016 11:01 am

Everything about this run is incredible. Trough goes negative sooner and the ridge out west is OUTSTANDING!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

by Biggin23 Mon Jan 18, 2016 11:02 am

Hour 108 CNJ south already in moderate snow!

by **Quietace** Mon Jan 18, 2016 11:02 am

The System and pattern itself is just impressive at every level in the atmosphere; the surface, all the way up to the Jet Streak Placement.

by **CPcantmeasuresnow** Mon Jan 18, 2016 11:02 am

jimv45 wrote:hear we go again docs cp hyde I know it early but when that SE trend starts to happen we know the deal!!! Lets hope that it goes northwest and makes everyone happy but this is the trend over the last few winter's.

We're doomed. I feel it in my bones.

by **Frank_Wx** Mon Jan 18, 2016 11:02 am

by **Frank_Wx** Mon Jan 18, 2016 11:02 am

by **nutleyblizzard** Mon Jan 18, 2016 11:03 am

Frank_Wx wrote:Everything about this run is incredible. Trough goes negative sooner and the ridge out west is OUTSTANDING!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

Damn we might see a "captured" low this run!!!

by **Quietace** Mon Jan 18, 2016 11:03 am

Frank_Wx wrote:

What a look....

by **Frank_Wx** Mon Jan 18, 2016 11:03 am

by **CPcantmeasuresnow** Mon Jan 18, 2016 11:04 am

syosnow94 wrote:
Frank_Wx wrote:Wow this is going to be huge

I've never ever heard that before. I wish you were a woman!!

sorry to any ladies on here. Just a little humor. I'm giddy over the storm prospects.

I laughed out loud. Sorry too to any offended.

by **Frank_Wx** Mon Jan 18, 2016 11:04 am

by **skinsfan1177** Mon Jan 18, 2016 11:05 am

I wish it was on land for better sampling. Are they running recon into this yet?

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