01/22/16-01/23/16 Update #1 - Historic Storm Possible

CMC hr 120, actually colder, RS line from I95 to Rt9, unless this map is wrong.

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=gem&region=neus&pkg=mslp_pcpn_frzn&runtime=2016011812&fh=120&xpos=0&ypos=201

What I love about today. LOVE. Is the western ridge on all pieces of guidance show it amplifying as the ULL in the NPAC approaches the west coast. Past runs had pieces of s/w's breaking off the ULL and crashing into the coast flattening the ridge. 12z EURO run to this point is showing a much better ridge than 00z run. This is big.

It's coming......thanks for play by play Frank!!

Western ridge is intact and bigger Frank no??

track17 wrote:Ok I will but would be nice if you guys could actually talk about the coast you don't seem to do that coast seems forgotten

Track, many members of this blog live on the coast, including two of the moderators. Trust me, all areas of NJstrong forum's interest will be discussed. Just try to relax in the meantime. :-)

alot of energy at the base and she is closed off - HUGE RUN INCOMING!!

track17 wrote:Ok I will but would be nice if you guys could actually talk about the coast you don't seem to do that coast seems forgotten

Just a FYI I live less than 10 miles from you, and I always mention the coast. But at the moment it is not good forecasting to get technical about boundary layer issues ATM. By tomorrow, yes we will get more specific, but currently it is best to continue to generalize and observe large scale synoptic issues at play.

Look a the TSJ and teh GOm pumping at hour 81 - MOMMA MIA

track17 wrote:I am happy for everyone else but of course I live in toms river so I am looking at like 3 inches max this sucks. I hate rain

Their is no way with what's been shown 3 inches max

CLosed up at 81 rb - lots of moisture she is beast

track17 wrote:Ok I will but would be nice if you guys could actually talk about the coast you don't seem to do that coast seems forgotten

Track17.  sroc4 and I live out on LI.  Same issues as you.  he/they (the mets on here) will take care of the coast.  Let them digest the runs and then they'll inform you, and don't worry about Quietace, he's a cranky teenager.

Stop the banter and discussion we are doing a HUGE PBP here peeps please!!

This is definitely a sharper trough compared to past EURO runs. It's dug into south TX - similar to CMC/GFS. Not as broad and energy embedded within trough is insane.

HR 87 over Bama/Miss and closed with a tight compact center ridge still pumping out west - AMAZING!!!

Going to be more NW from the looks

Hour 96 the trough is already neutral while 00z run was positive. H5 is also closed. Ridge still looks better than 00z.

teh gulf moisture ios intense at hopur 96 nuetral to slight pos and heading out now up teh coast - come on yuo BIAG!!!

The people on the coast and possibly the big cities will not like this one

This has Roidzilla potential.

chief7 wrote:The people on the coast and possibly the big cities will not like this one

WHY?

H5 CLOSING FURTHER NORTH ON THE EURO

THIS IS HUGE TO PREVENT A CUTOFF TOO FAR TO THE SOUTH

JESUS MOTHER OF MERCY COME ON!!!!!