Re: 01/22/16-01/23/16 Update #1 - Historic Storm Possible

by **sroc4** Mon Jan 18, 2016 1:50 pm

jake732 wrote:Frank, what's SLP?

Surface Low Pressure

by **jimv45** Mon Jan 18, 2016 1:50 pm

Rb how do you like Fishkill? Looks like we might do pretty good up here plus its colder i like the trends so far long way to go!!

by **SoulSingMG** Mon Jan 18, 2016 1:50 pm

Frank_Wx wrote:We should really begin talking more about the WINDS

AGREED. And in turn, potentially catastrophic coastal flooding. pale

by **jmanley32** Mon Jan 18, 2016 1:53 pm

Right here reading all posts euro is cippling. Frank I think that's the first time I ever heard u speak about the wind this far out. This looks like a snowicane.

by **jmanley32** Mon Jan 18, 2016 1:53 pm

How come 3 plus feel in va? Any chance we can get into that?

by **devsman** Mon Jan 18, 2016 1:54 pm

SoulSingMG wrote:
Frank_Wx wrote:We should really begin talking more about the WINDS

AGREED. And in turn, potentially catastrophic coastal flooding.

These are winds aloft? What speed does that translate to at the surface?

by Dave1978 Mon Jan 18, 2016 1:56 pm

Hey everyone I've been reading this page for a few years now. I don't know how to read the maps to well however I really enjoy all this hipe about this storm. Don't disapoint me. Lol. I bought two new SUVs this year and I'm really getting excited about testing them out "finally" They call me at work Doppler Dave bc all your info I repeat to coworkers when the news media isn't even saying anything. However few times I was made fun of bc all of u was wrong however I enjoy the site. I'm from Staten Island so let's hope we get a nice amount.

by **snow247** Mon Jan 18, 2016 1:56 pm

EDIT: Sorry I didn't see Frank posted it already. But its good, so why not post it again anyways? Very Happy

01/22/16-01/23/16 Update #1 - Historic Storm Possible - Page 18 Image.png.f7569cd82215b75f2eade501d550d374

by **jmanley32** Mon Jan 18, 2016 1:56 pm

SoulSingMG wrote:
Frank_Wx wrote:We should really begin talking more about the WINDS

this is winter sandy coming at worst time posSibley for coastal flooding. This is exciting and scary at same time. My sister in law has preop 1 hr away sat I'm tell her doubt it go happen doctors say she go have go.no matter what. Bad idea. Surgery sun. BTW euro had 90 plus gusts along jersey coast cents and south I wonder if nhc would name this?

AGREED. And in turn, potentially catastrophic coastal flooding.

by Sunflowers138 Mon Jan 18, 2016 2:00 pm

Total random question, but does this storm mimic characteristics of Sandy?

I'm seeing high winds, full moon, a lot of precip.

Can we have a similar outcome like Sandy (power loss, loss of life, etc.) Just with snow and not rain?

by Biggin23 Mon Jan 18, 2016 2:03 pm

Has the state of NJ ever issued evacuation orders from a winter storm? If this stays the course I would think they will be issued later this week.

by **Frank_Wx** Mon Jan 18, 2016 2:16 pm

devsman wrote:
SoulSingMG wrote:
Frank_Wx wrote:We should really begin talking more about the WINDS

AGREED. And in turn, potentially catastrophic coastal flooding.

These are winds aloft? What speed does that translate to at the surface?

At the surface this translates to gusts between 50-60mph, possibly near 70mph along Jersey Shore and LI.

Dave1978 wrote:Hey everyone I've been reading this page for a few years now. I don't know how to read the maps to well however I really enjoy all this hipe about this storm. Don't disapoint me. Lol. I bought two new SUVs this year and I'm really getting excited about testing them out "finally" They call me at work Doppler Dave bc all your info I repeat to coworkers when the news media isn't even saying anything. However few times I was made fun of bc all of u was wrong however I enjoy the site. I'm from Staten Island so let's hope we get a nice amount.

Welcome Doppler Dave. Glad to see you here.

Sunflowers138 wrote:Total random question, but does this storm mimic characteristics of Sandy?

I'm seeing high winds, full moon, a lot of precip.

Can we have a similar outcome like Sandy (power loss, loss of life, etc.) Just with snow and not rain?

No, Sandy came from the east and literally piled the Atlantic Ocean into NJ / NY. There will be high winds with this storm but not nearly as intense and the surge won't come close to Sandy.

Biggin23 wrote:Has the state of NJ ever issued evacuation orders from a winter storm? If this stays the course I would think they will be issued later this week.

I am not sure. I guess it's possible.

by Guest Mon Jan 18, 2016 2:17 pm

Everybody calm down. 4+days out

by **amugs** Mon Jan 18, 2016 2:19 pm

Dave1978 wrote:Hey everyone I've been reading this page for a few years now. I don't know how to read the maps to well however I really enjoy all this hipe about this storm. Don't disapoint me. Lol. I bought two new SUVs this year and I'm really getting excited about testing them out "finally" They call me at work Doppler Dave bc all your info I repeat to coworkers when the news media isn't even saying anything. However few times I was made fun of bc all of u was wrong however I enjoy the site. I'm from Staten Island so let's hope we get a nice amount.

Hcane Dave of 1978 - well 1979 - welcome the board and thanks for the great 1st post. You will always be in the know with us and yes about the pro mets but much more involved for them. SUV's will be in the demand as will snowmobiles and front bucket loaders!! well try our best to get 'er done but we cant promise you anything teh weather is the weather. again welcome and look forward to your posts.

Mugs

by **amugs** Mon Jan 18, 2016 2:20 pm

wpc map untreal

01/22/16-01/23/16 Update #1 - Historic Storm Possible - Page 18 9lhwbg_conus

by Guest Mon Jan 18, 2016 2:24 pm

Beautiful, perfect, textbook. Anything else I'm missing?

by **rb924119** Mon Jan 18, 2016 2:26 pm

amugs wrote:wpc map untreal

Looks like they're playing the "politically correct" way, and following the ensemble means right now lol Might see that come west, depending upon how the EURO looks later.....

by **jmanley32** Mon Jan 18, 2016 2:46 pm

Frank verbatim right now what do you think the winds would be like just north of New York City you know where I am the very bottom of Westchester north of the Bronx. Is there a the possibility that this could develop a eye? Some very strong winter storms have in the past what is your confidence level right now that this is going to be as extreme as some of the models are showing

by Guest Mon Jan 18, 2016 2:46 pm

Don't want it west. That heads directly over the BM and bombing out while doing so. With marginally cold air this track is what we want no?

by **sroc4** Mon Jan 18, 2016 2:47 pm

syosnow94 wrote:Don't want it west. That heads directly over the BM and bombing out while doing so. With marginally cold air this track is what we want no?

We want yes...westerners it might cut down on totals

by Guest Mon Jan 18, 2016 2:48 pm

He's going to blog us tonight for sure man. Patience still tons of time here

by Guest Mon Jan 18, 2016 2:49 pm

Further west rain for us sroc no?

by **frank 638** Mon Jan 18, 2016 2:52 pm

Will this storm be similar to the storm of 93

by Guest Mon Jan 18, 2016 3:03 pm

I hope it's similar in strength and duration. I hope it's not in the fact that after 14 inches of snow in the first 7 hours we turned to heavy sleet with thunder that kept our totals down on li. Everywhere else 2' plus with areas in the Catskills getting over 3'

by **nutleyblizzard** Mon Jan 18, 2016 3:06 pm

sroc4 wrote:
syosnow94 wrote:Don't want it west. That heads directly over the BM and bombing out while doing so. With marginally cold air this track is what we want no?

We want yes...westerners it might cut down on totals

I don't think its a matter of east vs west, but more so with the timing of our 500mb low closing. If the timing is delayed somewhat of it happening currently on the models, those heavier amounts shown down by Maryland would shift north. That's something we have to watch in future runs. I'm sure Frank will outline all options and variables tonight.

by **skinsfan1177** Mon Jan 18, 2016 3:09 pm

I don't think temps are an issue except for snj .

by **jake732** Mon Jan 18, 2016 3:12 pm

skinns, by snj do u mean a/c or even more up the coast,say where i am in ocean county?

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