Re: 01/22/16-01/23/16 Update #1 - Historic Storm Possible

by **SoulSingMG** Mon Jan 18, 2016 11:19 am

Frank_Wx wrote:Wind gusts at height of storm

Wow. Can't remember the last time I've seen the yellow like that over Manhattan in a winter storm.

by **Frank_Wx** Mon Jan 18, 2016 11:20 am

by **aiannone** Mon Jan 18, 2016 11:20 am

Frank_Wx wrote:

that looks a little low

by **NjWeatherGuy** Mon Jan 18, 2016 11:21 am

Frank_Wx wrote:Wind gusts at height of storm

EURO yesterday 12z had 50+ into CNJ but thats splitting hairs still impressive. Theres obviously a storm here but too much time on the clock to run down. Hopefully the models hold their ground, CMC up next. Ill calm down if we see the EURO come back NW today.

by **Frank_Wx** Mon Jan 18, 2016 11:21 am

The CMC is about to show a Frankzilla.

by **Frank_Wx** Mon Jan 18, 2016 11:23 am

by **snow247** Mon Jan 18, 2016 11:23 am

Assuming 15:1 ratio this is 18"-24" for all.

by **Frank_Wx** Mon Jan 18, 2016 11:25 am

I cannot believe what I am seeing

01/22/16-01/23/16 Update #1 - Historic Storm Possible - Page 10 CMC_MSLPThickQPF_ne_f114

01/22/16-01/23/16 Update #1 - Historic Storm Possible - Page 10 CMC_MSLPThickQPF_ne_f117

01/22/16-01/23/16 Update #1 - Historic Storm Possible - Page 10 CMC_MSLPThickQPF_ne_f120

by **Frank_Wx** Mon Jan 18, 2016 11:26 am

by **aiannone** Mon Jan 18, 2016 11:26 am

That buries Binghamton too!

by **Frank_Wx** Mon Jan 18, 2016 11:26 am

THE CMC HAS LOST ITS MIND!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! FRANKZILLA!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

by **Frank_Wx** Mon Jan 18, 2016 11:27 am

We're looking at a 20-30 hour snowfall. Not those 8-12 hours events from last year.

01/22/16-01/23/16 Update #1 - Historic Storm Possible - Page 10 CMC_MSLPThickQPF_ne_f129

01/22/16-01/23/16 Update #1 - Historic Storm Possible - Page 10 CMC_MSLPThickQPF_ne_f129

by **snow247** Mon Jan 18, 2016 11:27 am

And this is just a few days away. Wow.

by **NjWeatherGuy** Mon Jan 18, 2016 11:27 am

snow247 wrote:Assuming 15:1 ratio this is 18"-24" for all.

Not gonna be that high for many. Looks like a pasty storm with temps in the low 30s for I95 probably upper 20s too. Where you are probably colder. Models dont seem to think this will be a high ratio event probably due to warm ocean and east flow but the tradeoff is a ton of QPF and potential monster storm. Id rather have that. Probably a 10:1 to 12:1 ratio event for most if it plays out as modeled.

by **Quietace** Mon Jan 18, 2016 11:28 am

Looking at models, there is a really tight gradient between the LP and where the R/S line is. While you can see the 32F line fairly north, most are at 33 degrees with every other column cool enough for snow. Almost everyone is ripping except SE NJ

by **Frank_Wx** Mon Jan 18, 2016 11:29 am

This storm is NOT far away. By 00z runs tonight, we're looking at things under 90 hours.

by **skinsfan1177** Mon Jan 18, 2016 11:30 am

Frank_Wx wrote:The east winds are very strong. Jersey coast will see almost hurricane force winds.

With 2 feet of snow maybe more and drifts of 10 feet. What a Face

by **NjWeatherGuy** Mon Jan 18, 2016 11:31 am

Frank_Wx wrote:We're looking at a 20-30 hour snowfall. Not those 8-12 hours events from last year.

Worried about this because some events in the past years were progged to do this, can recall many and it turned out to be smoke and mirrors meanwhile it ended up a much quicker event as we got closer with less QPF. Something to look out for, also like the CMC where it is, usually a little too far NW and warm anyway.

by **skinsfan1177** Mon Jan 18, 2016 11:32 am

Cnj coast will be getting hammered if this here ya weds sound the alarms

by **Dtone** Mon Jan 18, 2016 11:32 am

So constantly forecasted, reminds me of 96

by **NjWeatherGuy** Mon Jan 18, 2016 11:33 am

Quietace wrote:Looking at models, there is a really tight gradient between the LP and where the R/S line is. While you can see the 32F line fairly north, most are at 33 degrees with every other column cool enough for snow. Almost everyone is ripping except SE NJ

It'll be in NAM range soon and then we'll be able to see where these finer details are. Like the psu maps for those. Assuming the NAM can handle the setup...

by **amugs** Mon Jan 18, 2016 11:33 am

SoulSingMG wrote:
Frank_Wx wrote:Wind gusts at height of storm

Wow. Can't remember the last time I've seen the yellow like that over Manhattan in a winter storm.

How about Sandy??

by **weatherwatchermom** Mon Jan 18, 2016 11:34 am

LOL...I have been delirious with a high fever the last 2 days...am I hallucinating or are we really going to have a storm??

by **Quietace** Mon Jan 18, 2016 11:36 am

NjWeatherGuy wrote:
Quietace wrote:Looking at models, there is a really tight gradient between the LP and where the R/S line is. While you can see the 32F line fairly north, most are at 33 degrees with every other column cool enough for snow. Almost everyone is ripping except SE NJ

It'll be in NAM range soon and then we'll be able to see where these finer details are. Like the psu maps for those. Assuming the NAM can handle the setup...

No model will really be able to handle the dynamics of a setup like this, the gradient is going to be extremely tight. Though with this storm, you may be at 33-34 degrees with accumulating snow on all surfaces with the rates shown, especially with the stronger confluence pressing down coller air into the area as shown on the GFS.

by **rb924119** Mon Jan 18, 2016 11:37 am

Frank_Wx wrote:

I'm HIGHLY intrigued by these two maps. Look at the double CCB banding that it is depicting. No, that's not incorrect. When you have systems that rapidly mature, especially at mid levels, you can actually get dual CCB banding. The method by which this is occurs is very hard to explain, but I have seen the CMC do this now for multiple runs, and demonstrates the explosive POTENTIAL of this system. That said, whoever gets trapped between the two bands gets the ultimate screw-job. Gonna be interesting to see where the models converge, because whoever gets under those two bands will jackpot, and I mean LARGELY.

by **Frank_Wx** Mon Jan 18, 2016 11:38 am

weatherwatchermom wrote:LOL...I have been delirious with a high fever the last 2 days...am I hallucinating or are we really going to have a storm??

Sure looks like it.

My 2nd update will come tonight. Between 8-9pm.

I will begin talking a bit more specifics. Key EURO run this afternoon.

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