01/22/16-01/23/16 Update #1 - Historic Storm Possible

1"+ liquid for all of us on the GFS.

Question....I know the surface maps account snow at a 10:1 ratio and some count all Frozen precip as snow; however, do they account for snow when surface temps are above 32? Just curious on how they run their algorithms as this storm should have  a cold column all the way to the surface even if surface temps are marginal in some locations.

Why the sharp cutoff at the coast? Temps an issue?

Thanks Mugs Thought I was missing somethin

Biggin23 wrote:Question....I know the surface maps account snow at a 10:1 ratio and some count all Frozen precip as snow; however, do they account for snow when surface temps are above 32? Just curious on how they run their algorithms as this storm should have  a cold column all the way to the surface even if surface temps are marginal in some locations.

That is the reason most coastal locations have limited snowfall on maps. Their algorithm see a 2m Temp of 33/34 and don't read it as accumulating snow, even when 925mb and up is conducive for heavy wet snow.

lglickman1 wrote:Why the sharp cutoff at the coast?  Temps an issue?

See my last post

Quietace wrote:

snow247 wrote:Imagine if we can move those purple shades northeast more.

They have already adjusted NE from the 12z run.

Ace I'm going to you for my area with all these runs what your take if this all holds.

Quietace wrote:

Biggin23 wrote:Question....I know the surface maps account snow at a 10:1 ratio and some count all Frozen precip as snow; however, do they account for snow when surface temps are above 32? Just curious on how they run their algorithms as this storm should have  a cold column all the way to the surface even if surface temps are marginal in some locations.

That is the reason most coastal locations have limited snowfall on maps. Their algorithm see a 2m Temp of 33/34 and don't read it as accumulating snow, even when 925mb and up is conducive for heavy wet snow.

Thanks, good information.

jmanley32 wrote:

Quietace wrote:

snow247 wrote:Imagine if we can move those purple shades northeast more.

They have already adjusted NE from the 12z run.

They area really did move closer. Insane run. I wouldn't b surprised if those insane amounts got in the area even over to.nyc still early for locked in amounts etc. But this has been really consistent if not getting even better.

Agreed.

So what are we Looking at amount wise then at the coast

skinns i am so damn nervous that were gonna get nothing compared to 20 miles west of us

Mike Franscessa on WFAN sports radio is talking about rumors of 2 feet of snow on sarurday

jake732 wrote:skinns i am so damn nervous that were gonna get nothing compared to 20 miles west of us

I don't think so Jake models are putting out insane qpf amounts . Strong high pressure to our north will help temps plus dynamics alone.

skinsfan1177 wrote:

Quietace wrote:

snow247 wrote:Imagine if we can move those purple shades northeast more.

They have already adjusted NE from the 12z run.

Ace I'm going to you for my area with all these runs what your take if this all holds.

It is really going to be a very close call. Dependent on how close surface low gets. On the GFS we never go above freezing 925mb on up, but we get to 35ish at the surface. That still might be S+ for us. But what we have to watch is how much snow we get with overrunning prior to the coastal transfer. Because of that, we may be able to hold surface temps down longer, and if we can couple that with heavier banding, we may be able to hold off changing over; yet alas with poor ratios before the low tucks in and we get into the CCB(and temps crash). Have to wait probably until atleast 12z tomorrow to get a better idea.

That's going to be a good ballpark number.

thanx skinns...i love mike frencesa

Quietace wrote:

skinsfan1177 wrote:

Quietace wrote:

snow247 wrote:Imagine if we can move those purple shades northeast more.

They have already adjusted NE from the 12z run.

Ace I'm going to you for my area with all these runs what your take if this all holds.

It is really going to be a very close call. Dependent on how close surface low gets. On the GFS we never go above freezing 925mb on up, but we get to 35ish at the surface. That still might be S+ for us. But what we have to watch is how much snow we get with overrunning prior to the coastal transfer. Because of that, we may be able to hold surface temps down longer, and if we can couple that with heavier banding, we may be able to hold off changing over; yet alas with poor ratios before the low tucks in and we get into the CCB(and temps crash). Have to wait probably until atleast 12z tomorrow to get a better idea.

Does a strong HP to our north help and what about dynamics as well. And a track not to close correct

I'm tweeting right now with Nick Gregory and he agrees; model consistency across the board right now is really unprecedented 4 days out.

skinsfan1177 wrote:

Quietace wrote:

skinsfan1177 wrote:

Quietace wrote:

snow247 wrote:Imagine if we can move those purple shades northeast more.

They have already adjusted NE from the 12z run.

Ace I'm going to you for my area with all these runs what your take if this all holds.

It is really going to be a very close call. Dependent on how close surface low gets. On the GFS we never go above freezing 925mb on up, but we get to 35ish at the surface. That still might be S+ for us. But what we have to watch is how much snow we get with overrunning prior to the coastal transfer. Because of that, we may be able to hold surface temps down longer, and if we can couple that with heavier banding, we may be able to hold off changing over; yet alas with poor ratios before the low tucks in and we get into the CCB(and temps crash). Have to wait probably until atleast 12z tomorrow to get a better idea.

Does a strong HP to our north help and what about dynamics as well

1) The High isn't that strong(Confluence keeping the low further south is more important, as a low tucked into the Delmarva isn't ideal with a screaming East winds over 40kts). 2) I mentioned that in my post. Cold 850s and 0C 925mb would help keep surface temps down with heavier banding.

Is the timing more like Sat-Sun then Fri ??

frank, is this a 24 hour event? more?