Re: 01/22/16-01/23/16 Update #1 - Historic Storm Possible

by **jmanley32** Mon Jan 18, 2016 12:05 pm

rb924119 wrote:Like I said, whoever is lucky enough to get under one of those bands is going to jackpot lol

yeah I'm in that toy circle of two feet! Frank wind maps on wxbell not gr8 what is cmc showing for gusts in my area. I will need my ski goggles to go out in this with winds like the gfs wow for me looks like 50 to 55 plus or minus still nuts u won't see 10 feet in front u.

by **amugs** Mon Jan 18, 2016 12:05 pm

rb924119 wrote:Keep in mind this is THE 12z GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN:

THAT IS SICCCKKKKKKKKKKKKK!!!!!!!!!!!! A FRICKIN MEAN HOLY SMOKES!!

by **skinsfan1177** Mon Jan 18, 2016 12:06 pm

rb924119 wrote:Keep in mind this is THE 12z GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN:

Not buying this map for coastal plain

by **rb924119** Mon Jan 18, 2016 12:06 pm

Just look at that glorious cluster of members inside the OP and Ensemble mean......WOOOOOOOOO!!!!!

01/22/16-01/23/16 Update #1 - Historic Storm Possible - Page 12 GFS_12_enUS_H50S_0114

01/22/16-01/23/16 Update #1 - Historic Storm Possible - Page 12 GFS_12_enUS_H50S_0114

by **sroc4** Mon Jan 18, 2016 12:09 pm

skinsfan1177 wrote:
rb924119 wrote:Keep in mind this is THE 12z GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN:

Not buying this map for coastal plain

Im with you 100%. Coastal plain is in the QPF bulls eye. Im not worried at all at this pouint Skins.

by **jmanley32** Mon Jan 18, 2016 12:09 pm

Wow the psu ewall has sustained 10m winds at 40 to 50 MPH even into just north of nyc. That's insane.

by **amugs** Mon Jan 18, 2016 12:10 pm

^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^ @RB MAPS
01/22/16-01/23/16 Update #1 - Historic Storm Possible - Page 12 Z

by **frank 638** Mon Jan 18, 2016 12:11 pm

Bring the beast here with those winds looks like a tropical storm

by **rb924119** Mon Jan 18, 2016 12:11 pm

amugs wrote:UKIE - WOWOWOWOWOW!!!!

How'd you get it out that far? lol

by **jmanley32** Mon Jan 18, 2016 12:12 pm

sroc4 wrote:
skinsfan1177 wrote:
rb924119 wrote:Keep in mind this is THE 12z GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN:

Not buying this map for coastal plain

Im with you 100%. Coastal plain is in the QPF bulls eye. Im not worried at all at this pouint Skins.

this is.beyond nuts assuming it stays this way. Frank u say Godzilla but has potential to b more too per cmc and past runs yes? Not that a Godzilla wouldn't b just fine. Those winds if verify are going to blow my wind meter put of my hand lol

by **frank 638** Mon Jan 18, 2016 12:13 pm

AccuWeather has NYC 6 to 10 inches of snow of course it will change

by **rb924119** Mon Jan 18, 2016 12:15 pm

JMA anybody???

01/22/16-01/23/16 Update #1 - Historic Storm Possible - Page 12 Jma_vort_uv500_conus_27

by Guest Mon Jan 18, 2016 12:17 pm

sroc4 wrote:
skinsfan1177 wrote:
rb924119 wrote:Keep in mind this is THE 12z GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN:

Not buying this map for coastal plain

Im with you 100%. Coastal plain is in the QPF bulls eye. Im not worried at all at this pouint Skins.

I was going to say the same thing sroc. i just can't see how a storm in that position with us just north of the closed upper level low and a high pressure with 2"+ qpf. doesn't give us 2' +!!

by **amugs** Mon Jan 18, 2016 12:18 pm

With the consistency of the Operational models, I don't think the use of lower resolution Ensembles is as necessary. The ensembles are supposed to sort out chaos, but when the OP agreement is so consistent and so strong...

by **amugs** Mon Jan 18, 2016 12:20 pm

HMMMMM

01/22/16-01/23/16 Update #1 - Historic Storm Possible - Page 12 F114

by chief7 Mon Jan 18, 2016 12:22 pm

Hey RB the Jma the low looks a little bit more East than the last run

by Guest Mon Jan 18, 2016 12:28 pm

amugs wrote:HMMMMM

too far west for my liking.

by **NjWeatherGuy** Mon Jan 18, 2016 12:29 pm

TWC showing clown maps in advance, state shipping in huge salt equipment and arming plows, hype increasing, HM just put on the big daddy hat in his video today... This reeks of storm cancel.

by **rb924119** Mon Jan 18, 2016 12:32 pm

chief7 wrote:Hey RB the Jma the low looks a little bit more East than the last run

I honestly can't comment on that, BUT that's not what I'm concerned with. All we are looking for at this time, and honestly, through Wednesday's 12z runs, is going to be consistency. Is the storm there? Is it being shown to close off somewhere in the Ohio or Tennessee River Valley? Does it have room to come north? How does the ridge look; is it still amplified? These are questions we have to focus on for the next 48 hours. Details such as how much snow, exact placement of the circulations, where banding sets up, duration, strength, and anything like that can't be worried about yet. We are going to see slight run to run wobbles with this; it's typical. The energy that will be responsible for this is still about 2000 miles away from any sampling, so the models are still "flying blind" with how to handle it at this point. The energy will come on shore Tuesday night, and that's when we can start to talk specifics, because the models will be able to have actual samples of the energy to work with.

by track17 Mon Jan 18, 2016 12:34 pm

I am happy for everyone else but of course I live in toms river so I am looking at like 3 inches max this sucks. I hate rain

by **SoulSingMG** Mon Jan 18, 2016 12:36 pm

rb924119 wrote:
chief7 wrote:Hey RB the Jma the low looks a little bit more East than the last run

I honestly can't comment on that, BUT that's not what I'm concerned with. All we are looking for at this time, and honestly, through Wednesday's 12z runs, is going to be consistency. Is the storm there? Is it being shown to close off somewhere in the Ohio or Tennessee River Valley? Does it have room to come north? How does the ridge look; is it still amplified? These are questions we have to focus on for the next 48 hours. Details such as how much snow, exact placement of the circulations, where banding sets up, duration, strength, and anything like that can't be worried about yet. We are going to see slight run to run wobbles with this; it's typical. The energy that will be responsible for this is still about 2000 miles away from any sampling, so the models are still "flying blind" with how to handle it at this point. The energy will come on shore Tuesday night, and that's when we can start to talk specifics, because the models will be able to have actual samples of the energy to work with.

This whole "sampling" thing has always confused me a bit. If models are flying blind, is it at all possible they can even show the SAME sort of solutions on Wed that they're showing now?

by **NjWeatherGuy** Mon Jan 18, 2016 12:40 pm

rb924119 wrote:
chief7 wrote:Hey RB the Jma the low looks a little bit more East than the last run

I honestly can't comment on that, BUT that's not what I'm concerned with. All we are looking for at this time, and honestly, through Wednesday's 12z runs, is going to be consistency. Is the storm there? Is it being shown to close off somewhere in the Ohio or Tennessee River Valley? Does it have room to come north? How does the ridge look; is it still amplified? These are questions we have to focus on for the next 48 hours. Details such as how much snow, exact placement of the circulations, where banding sets up, duration, strength, and anything like that can't be worried about yet. We are going to see slight run to run wobbles with this; it's typical. The energy that will be responsible for this is still about 2000 miles away from any sampling, so the models are still "flying blind" with how to handle it at this point. The energy will come on shore Tuesday night, and that's when we can start to talk specifics, because the models will be able to have actual samples of the energy to work with.

As far as I know its pretty much right off the west coast now isnt it? Not quite 2000 miles away from sampling thats quite a distance. And as far as I know has been GOES sampled as of yesterday improving of less data over western Pac region.

by **jake732** Mon Jan 18, 2016 12:42 pm

U will not be getting rain in Toms river

by **Quietace** Mon Jan 18, 2016 12:43 pm

jake732 wrote:U will not be getting rain in Toms river

Reason behind this thinking?

by track17 Mon Jan 18, 2016 12:43 pm

I just hate this Toms River will never see a decent storm again this one is another 3 inches and rain hate this

by **rb924119** Mon Jan 18, 2016 12:43 pm

SoulSingMG wrote:
rb924119 wrote:
chief7 wrote:Hey RB the Jma the low looks a little bit more East than the last run

I honestly can't comment on that, BUT that's not what I'm concerned with. All we are looking for at this time, and honestly, through Wednesday's 12z runs, is going to be consistency. Is the storm there? Is it being shown to close off somewhere in the Ohio or Tennessee River Valley? Does it have room to come north? How does the ridge look; is it still amplified? These are questions we have to focus on for the next 48 hours. Details such as how much snow, exact placement of the circulations, where banding sets up, duration, strength, and anything like that can't be worried about yet. We are going to see slight run to run wobbles with this; it's typical. The energy that will be responsible for this is still about 2000 miles away from any sampling, so the models are still "flying blind" with how to handle it at this point. The energy will come on shore Tuesday night, and that's when we can start to talk specifics, because the models will be able to have actual samples of the energy to work with.

This whole "sampling" thing has always confused me a bit. If models are flying blind, is it at all possible they can even show the SAME sort of solutions on Wed that they're showing now?

Sorry for the confusion, Soul. Yes, it is. What's a good analogy for this?....

Oh ok, got one!! Think of all of the landmasses, continents, with all of their balloon launching (sounding) stations (which is how we get the data for the models, and some countries like the US have more than others) as sections of a giant puzzle, with each puzzle piece represented by each sounding station. While we don't really know much with the oceans, we can kind of get an idea of how the completed puzzle will look because we know the general configuration of all of the pieces of the continents. So, think of it as a patchwork. If we know what sections of the puzzle look like, then we can kind of get an idea of how the finished product will look by using our imagination and "connecting the dots" so to speak. Same thing with the models. They know how the atmosphere is responding over the continents, so they "use that as a basis or template", and extrapolate out from there. Does make more sense?

by track17 Mon Jan 18, 2016 12:44 pm

Look at the models all have us in rain look at the totals like 3 inches and twc app saying so

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