01/22/16 - 01/23/16 Update #2 - Models Not Backing Off

is it really this hard to get 1.... ONE 20 inch storm?

One thing I have noticed on this thread is how the EURO failed with past snowstorms. What I have come to realize, however, is that two of the storms the EURO busted on, especially for NYC and NJ, were "Juno" and "Nemo" both of which were "Miller B" secondary redevelopment snowstorms. If I'm not mistaken, this would more closely resemble a "Miller A" type snowstorm. So I don't think that the EURO's performance here should be compared to that from the two aforementioned storms. But that's just what I think.

The only silver lining is we have a full day tomorrow and Thursday to see these trends reverse. I honestly am not expecting models tonight so suddenly come north. If they do I'll be very surprised.

pdubz wrote:is it really this hard to get 1.... ONE 20 inch storm?

Actually, it is. That's what makes them special. 

Math23x7 wrote:One thing I have noticed on this thread is how the EURO failed with past snowstorms.  What I have come to realize, however, is that two of the storms the EURO busted on, especially for NYC and NJ, were "Juno" and "Nemo" both of which were "Miller B" secondary redevelopment snowstorms.  If I'm not mistaken, this would more closely resemble a "Miller A" type snowstorm. So I don't think that the EURO's performance here should be compared to that from the two aforementioned storms.  But that's just what I think.

This is actually closer to Miller B than A. A phase is already happening well to our west and we're tracking a bowling ball H5 low. Technically this is Miller C. But it's nowhere near A. My opinion at least.

Maybe we're focusing on the wrong storm... Ready to lose it
(I know this belongs in banter but couldn't resist...)

http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/Image.php?fhr=213&image=data%2Fgfs%2F18%2Fgfs_namer_213_850_temp_mslp_precip.gif&model=gfs&area=namer¶m=850_temp_mslp_precip&group=Model+Guidance&preselected_formatted_cycle_date=20160119+18+UTC&imageSize=M&ps=model

Frank_Wx wrote:The 18z GFS Ensembles are south of 12z.

Yes but by like 25 miles not 200

When the storm is fully on land by 12z tomorrow we see what is what imho. We have time and also till 0z tomorrow night too. I suspect we see the south and east trend on the tonight's runs, as Frank said if we see a reversal then for the better. I am done till tomorrow 6 z gfs.

NjWeatherGuy wrote:Maybe we're focusing on the wrong storm... Ready to lose it
(I know this belongs in banter but couldn't resist...)

http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/Image.php?fhr=213&image=data%2Fgfs%2F18%2Fgfs_namer_213_850_temp_mslp_precip.gif&model=gfs&area=namer&param=850_temp_mslp_precip&group=Model+Guidance&preselected_formatted_cycle_date=20160119+18+UTC&imageSize=M&ps=model

Why would you do that to yourself?

Somebody posted it on another forum im watching, they did it to me.... Something to wish for if this goes down the tubes, not even gonna look at it run to run though...

Please keep this thread specific to end of week discussion.

If it snows that much in southern Md, schools will be closed for a week. I just moved to NJ last summer from there. Would be epic down there for sure!

jmanley32 wrote:Frank what are the chances this u'll lessens up to get us back to where we want to be? You said it changes run to run. What's ur honest guess at this time.

I think the EURO is too far south. Whether or not that means anything remains to be seen because the ULL is tough to forecast.

18z GEFS, worrying

http://forums.accuweather.com/index.php?act=attach&type=post&id=276698

NjWeatherGuy wrote:18z GEFS, worrying

http://forums.accuweather.com/index.php?act=attach&type=post&id=276698

Not good. HV gets skunked on almost every one.

Looks like strong consensus on a VA storm... we're the variable.

hyde this is the norm and this thing I think will go south more just unbelievable!

jmanley32 wrote:Let's not give up.peeps we have two solid days that ull could go either way. Storm still much on the table especially coastal and just inland areas. I do worry for the far northerners as I think a solution in between will.b the outcome of position and snow totals to b Godzilla amounts for at least a strip of area. Not giving up until the last minute I've decided.

oh not even close never surrender!

Well this is disconcerting news after stepping off my flight home from the DR.

I will say: I said an ALOUD prayer while taking a leak in the bathroom flying over the southern jet (I was watching the navigation on the tv and made an educated guess) that we see this baby trend NORTH starting at 00z.

Hope it helps. ;-)

We should blame Canada for the push south never drinking Molson again!!!