Re: 01/22/16 - 01/23/16 Update #2 - Models Not Backing Off

by **NjWeatherGuy** Tue Jan 19, 2016 5:11 pm

And probably a historic storm for DC....

by **rb924119** Tue Jan 19, 2016 5:13 pm

RJB8525 wrote:thats still a good map RB who can say no to that lol

I am because the evolution at H5 was bs. You will not have a two-lobed closed low, which signifies it's trying to have two centers at the mid-levels. It just doesn't happen. Whether it's caused by convective feedback or something else (maybe trying to correct itself?) I don't know, but I when I saw that I stopped paying attention.

by **jake732** Tue Jan 19, 2016 5:14 pm

Jim, what do u mean u would be concerned? For yes snow or no snow?

by **jmanley32** Tue Jan 19, 2016 5:16 pm

rb924119 wrote:
RJB8525 wrote:thats still a good map RB who can say no to that lol

I am because the evolution at H5 was bs. You will not have a two-lobed closed low, which signifies it's trying to have two centers at the mid-levels. It just doesn't happen. Whether it's caused by convective feedback or something else (maybe trying to correct itself?) I don't know, but I when I saw that I stopped paying attention.

so ir saying the se move was not likely on 18z?

by **snow247** Tue Jan 19, 2016 5:19 pm

Anyone north of 95 should be very concerned at this point.

by **RJB8525** Tue Jan 19, 2016 5:20 pm

snow247 wrote:Anyone north of 95 should be very concerned at this point.

very, strong feeling the shaft will be coming next model roll outs i'll try to keep it in banter

by Biggin23 Tue Jan 19, 2016 5:20 pm

195 and south still do fine with either the GFS or the EURO. The storm moving east to west actually can help if the low can just gain a little more northward after is initially closes off. Movement East to West after an initial jog northward would ultimately keep any temp issues south does it not? Wouldn't this also solve dry slot issues for this area because northwest of the low usually does well?

by **NjWeatherGuy** Tue Jan 19, 2016 5:22 pm

Heartbreaking Feb 5-6, 2010 thread from Accuwx, shows how models evolved from a tucked in blizzard to suppressed very quickly.

http://forums.accuweather.com/index.php?showtopic=16860&st=1980

by **Artechmetals** Tue Jan 19, 2016 5:23 pm

when do next runs come out

by **rb924119** Tue Jan 19, 2016 5:23 pm

jmanley32 wrote:
rb924119 wrote:
RJB8525 wrote:thats still a good map RB who can say no to that lol

I am because the evolution at H5 was bs. You will not have a two-lobed closed low, which signifies it's trying to have two centers at the mid-levels. It just doesn't happen. Whether it's caused by convective feedback or something else (maybe trying to correct itself?) I don't know, but I when I saw that I stopped paying attention.
so ir saying the se move was not likely on 18z?

No. What I'm saying is that I am just throwing that run out. The trend is the trend, but I'm not taking this run to have any credibility because of how it handled H5. The ensembles are what I'll pay attention to for 18z.

by **Frank_Wx** Tue Jan 19, 2016 5:24 pm

Artechmetals wrote:when do next runs come out

10:30.

Enough time for me to drink a bottle of wine

by **Artechmetals** Tue Jan 19, 2016 5:26 pm

NJ this also kinda happened last year if i remember correctly we were all waiting for this big snowstorm then it just blew up in our faces wasn't it in febuary

by **Artechmetals** Tue Jan 19, 2016 5:27 pm

Frank are those models at 10:30 the important ones

by **rb924119** Tue Jan 19, 2016 5:28 pm

Frank_Wx wrote:
Artechmetals wrote:when do next runs come out

10:30.

Enough time for me to drink a bottle of wine

LMFAO!!!

by **Frank_Wx** Tue Jan 19, 2016 5:29 pm

This is a great post by another Met. You can clearly see why models are now struggling to come north. Please read.

The biggest difference on this run by far was the changed evolution of the pattern across Eastern Canada. The GFS is now swinging a spoke around a larger upper level low exactly as our storm is amplifying up the Mississippi River Valley. Instead of mid level heights being amplified up the coast as the PVA nears the seaboard, they are actually compressed over New England due to this confluent troughing. This is a huge issue if it is correct and/or trends stronger.

by Guest Tue Jan 19, 2016 5:33 pm

He could have just said supression

by **snow247** Tue Jan 19, 2016 5:35 pm

As NJ said, this feels very like Feb 5-6 2010 and some other storms.

by **snow247** Tue Jan 19, 2016 5:42 pm

18z nogaps looks like the euro. Very bad.

by **NjWeatherGuy** Tue Jan 19, 2016 5:47 pm

https://youtu.be/bPHcUOHuiFU

by **Frank_Wx** Tue Jan 19, 2016 5:53 pm

syosnow94 wrote:He could have just said supression

It's about WHY models are suddenly suppressing the storm. The ULL before today was just a weak northern short wave. Now it's much more potent and basically shows a trough over SE Canada. This was not modeled 2 days ago which is why the EURO was even coming up the coast. The EURO was the first model to see this trough. If there's any good news it's that this ULL can change drastically from run to run.

by **pdubz** Tue Jan 19, 2016 5:56 pm

NjWeatherGuy wrote:https://youtu.be/bPHcUOHuiFU

lmfao!!!! why does this always happen!!!!!

by **skinsfan1177** Tue Jan 19, 2016 5:57 pm

So what I'm reading and seeing Cnj a,d coastal plain are probably in a better spot if this is a S/E trend

by **NjWeatherGuy** Tue Jan 19, 2016 5:57 pm

Frank_Wx wrote:
syosnow94 wrote:He could have just said supression

It's about WHY models are suddenly suppressing the storm. The ULL before today was just a weak northern short wave. Now it's much more potent and basically shows a trough over SE Canada. This was not modeled 2 days ago which is why the EURO was even coming up the coast. The EURO was the first model to see this trough. If there's any good news it's that this ULL can change drastically from run to run.

Basically a brick wall of confluence, recall a similar problem in 2010. Not a good trend...

by **Frank_Wx** Tue Jan 19, 2016 5:59 pm

The 18z GFS Ensembles are south of 12z.

by **NjWeatherGuy** Tue Jan 19, 2016 6:00 pm

Frank_Wx wrote:The 18z GFS Ensembles are south of 12z.

Im gonna puke, really gotta get out tonight..

by **pdubz** Tue Jan 19, 2016 6:00 pm

is it really this hard to get 1.... ONE 20 inch storm?

by **Math23x7** Tue Jan 19, 2016 6:00 pm

One thing I have noticed on this thread is how the EURO failed with past snowstorms. What I have come to realize, however, is that two of the storms the EURO busted on, especially for NYC and NJ, were "Juno" and "Nemo" both of which were "Miller B" secondary redevelopment snowstorms. If I'm not mistaken, this would more closely resemble a "Miller A" type snowstorm. So I don't think that the EURO's performance here should be compared to that from the two aforementioned storms. But that's just what I think.

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