Re: 01/22/16 - 01/23/16 Update #2 - Models Not Backing Off

by **SoulSingMG** Tue Jan 19, 2016 8:26 pm

Well.....the SREF's look gorg!

by **NjWeatherGuy** Tue Jan 19, 2016 8:28 pm

SoulSingMG wrote:ABC7:

0-3: 20%
3-6: 25%
6-12: 35%
12+: 20%

So basically, could go any way.... Kind of matches my thinking of 50/50 Crap nothing -6" or a bigger storm

by **NjWeatherGuy** Tue Jan 19, 2016 8:28 pm

SoulSingMG wrote:Well.....the SREF's look gorg!

Unfortunately still out of range, carry a NW and wet bias in this timeframe...

by **skinsfan1177** Tue Jan 19, 2016 8:30 pm

NjWeatherGuy wrote:
skinsfan1177 wrote:Why is it so negative here geez. Storm is coming 3 days away plenty runs to go a couple s/e runs and its over. Come on not close to being over. Keep it real

For people further north its becoming justifyingly concerning.

Yes I understand because of the runs today but it doesn't mean it doesn't come back more north. My point was their is time.

by **jmanley32** Tue Jan 19, 2016 8:32 pm

How far out do Stef go? Images?

by Snowfall Tue Jan 19, 2016 8:37 pm

It's gonna adjust back north tomorrow and we will end with the same solution and yesterday a blockbuster

by jwalsh Tue Jan 19, 2016 8:38 pm

Well, according to NWS...
01/22/16 - 01/23/16 Update #2 - Models Not Backing Off - Page 29 Wx35_northeast

by **SoulSingMG** Tue Jan 19, 2016 8:40 pm

NjWeatherGuy wrote:
SoulSingMG wrote:Well.....the SREF's look gorg!

Unfortunately still out of range, carry a NW and wet bias in this timeframe...

I know it. Wish it were Thurs PM (in THIS regard). I do think being in the jackpot 3 nights before a storm is never a great position. So we'll see.

by **skinsfan1177** Tue Jan 19, 2016 8:40 pm

What model is up next I know their times were posted awhile back

by **NjWeatherGuy** Tue Jan 19, 2016 8:42 pm

NAM, running now, not of much use just yet...

by **snow247** Tue Jan 19, 2016 8:53 pm

SREFS!

Look at that north lean.

01/22/16 - 01/23/16 Update #2 - Models Not Backing Off - Page 29 Sref_namer_087_mslp

by **snow247** Tue Jan 19, 2016 8:54 pm

by **skinsfan1177** Tue Jan 19, 2016 8:55 pm

Good sign snow

by **skinsfan1177** Tue Jan 19, 2016 8:55 pm

Does anyone know is Frank doing a write up tonight

by **snow247** Tue Jan 19, 2016 8:57 pm

skinsfan1177 wrote:Does anyone know is Frank doing a write up tonight

Not sure. I am also wondering if we will still do a chat tomorrow night if the storm is looking better for us by then.

by **frank 638** Tue Jan 19, 2016 9:01 pm

snow247 wrote:SREFS!

Look at that north lean.

by **Math23x7** Tue Jan 19, 2016 9:03 pm

Not to spoil the fun, but I just checked the 21 individual SREF plumes on the 21Z SREFs for LGA through hour 87 (7 AM Saturday). Through that time, 8 of the 21 plumes show no snow. Of course, on the other hand, the weenie plume (member ARP2) showed over 21 inches of snow there through hour 87. Unfortunately, I am favoring the 8 of 21 at this point Sad

by **snow247** Tue Jan 19, 2016 9:20 pm

Not seeing much changes on the NAM so far through hour 36.

by **Frank_Wx** Tue Jan 19, 2016 9:21 pm

New thread.

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