Re: 01/22/16 - 01/23/16 Update #3 - Will Models Trend Back North?

by **nutleyblizzard** Wed Jan 20, 2016 5:53 am

Great run by the 6z GFS! Ticked SE but has more expansive precip shield and colder too! 1-2 feet throughout the area.

by **Dtone** Wed Jan 20, 2016 5:54 am

I hear snow to a mix then back to snow nyc metro.

by Snowfall Wed Jan 20, 2016 5:58 am

We are good I said a few days back nyc 16" don't be surprised if models wobble a lil more it's our storm.

by **frank 638** Wed Jan 20, 2016 5:58 am

On accu weather they have me heavy wind driven snow with 8 to 12 inches I hope it goes up .do u think costal flooding will be bad

by **nutleyblizzard** Wed Jan 20, 2016 6:03 am

Where the heck is Frank and Mugs?

by **SNOW MAN** Wed Jan 20, 2016 6:10 am

nutleyblizzard wrote:Where the heck is Frank and Mugs?

Recovering from yesterdays model runs. confused

Tracking storms is an exhausting hobby for sure. Sleep

by **snow247** Wed Jan 20, 2016 6:13 am

I want the 6z GFS to verify. Best scenario for ALL of us.

by **nutleyblizzard** Wed Jan 20, 2016 6:23 am

The one noticeable aspect of last nights runs which was very encouraging was the slower evolution of our storm which allows for some of that confluence to clear out. Also the trough goes negative earlier allowing the storm to move more northward. Even the latest Euro shows the storm form way to the south only to get picked up in later frames. Its all about timing. Would like to see the Euro move north another 50-100 miles which would give us a historic storm across the area. Even so, it still gives us a foot plus. Hang on tight everybody huge runs today!!!

by **billg315** Wed Jan 20, 2016 6:24 am

I woke up yesterday and TWC had me at 12-18". By the evening it had me 2-6". This morning it had me 12-18". Models were awesome Monday night, disappointing (or concerning) Tuesday, and back to awesome Tuesday night. Moral of this story? The storm is still over 2 days away so we will continue to see changes to the forecast. I do think it's important to note the Worst models we saw yesterday still brought a few inches of snow to NYC (in a winter where we've had about an inch). People were concerned about the trend but we really haven't seen a model yet where we get completely shut out. Could the storm still get surpressed south? Yes. Could there be mixing issues especially mid-storm? Yes. Could we get an all-out blizzard? Yes. 60 hours out all options remain on the table, but the most consistent outcome on the models has been: we get our first real accumulating snow event of the winter.

by **frank 638** Wed Jan 20, 2016 6:24 am

nutleyblizzard wrote:The one noticeable aspect of last nights runs which was very encouraging was the slower evolution of our storm which allows for some of that confluence to clear out. Also the trough goes negative earlier allowing the storm to move more northward. Even the latest Euro shows the storm form way to the south only to get picked up in later frames. Its all about timing. Would like to see the Euro move north another 50-100 miles which would give us a historic storm across the area. Even so, it still gives us a foot plus. Hang on tight everybody huge runs today!!!

by **CPcantmeasuresnow** Wed Jan 20, 2016 6:54 am

Does anyone have the 6Z GFS snow map?

Pretty good run. Still sharp cutoff to the north and the same stall off Ocean City Md and then a slight drift ESE.

LHV makes out better as the heaviest precip shield travels a little further north.

DC still jackpotting and that's been consistent on every run for five days. If that verifies I don't think I've ever seen a jackpot area remain consistent like that through 7 days of runs. 12 and 0z runs today are HUGE!!!

by **skinsfan1177** Wed Jan 20, 2016 6:57 am

jake732 wrote:And now we having mixing in rain an issues

Jake relax please if it does it won't last

by **jmanley32** Wed Jan 20, 2016 7:01 am

06z gfs big hit 12 to 18 plus areawide.

by **skinsfan1177** Wed Jan 20, 2016 7:02 am

Coastal areas are going to get lots of snow I think mixing should not be talked about now

by **CPcantmeasuresnow** Wed Jan 20, 2016 7:03 am

jmanley32 wrote:06z gfs big hit 12 to 18 plus areawide.

Map please my Jman?

by **snow247** Wed Jan 20, 2016 7:08 am

by Biggin23 Wed Jan 20, 2016 7:09 am

skinsfan1177 wrote:Coastal areas are going to get lots of snow I think mixing should not be talked about now

This is correct! Of course living on the coastal plain there is a chance it mixes for a while, but that comes with the territory. The coast is still in line to experience some excellent dynamics and will have a huge QPF. I'm on the coastal plain here in CNJ and I am stoked for the potential for a huge snow (not flooding). Bring on the 12z suite.....we are less than 72 hours away so we should be able to start nailing down some finer points the next 24 hours or so!!

by **Frank_Wx** Wed Jan 20, 2016 7:11 am

Euro came north ladies and gentlemen. The 12Z runs this afternoon will be the biggest since February 2003.

by **jake732** Wed Jan 20, 2016 7:14 am

Pray pray pray

by **snow247** Wed Jan 20, 2016 7:14 am

Hoping for more good trends today.

by **SNOW MAN** Wed Jan 20, 2016 7:15 am

Frank, what time do they run. Thanks.

by **CPcantmeasuresnow** Wed Jan 20, 2016 7:16 am

snow247 wrote:

Not going to get up or down with these maps until 0z tonight. I've been in 3 inch and 20 inch spots in the last 24 hours. The only place that never seems to change is the western Md WDC area.

Of course I'd take this run in a heartbeat.

by **CPcantmeasuresnow** Wed Jan 20, 2016 7:18 am

Frank how concerned are you with last nights GFS ensembles being pretty far south of the operational? Personally it ruined my sleep.

by **SoulSingMG** Wed Jan 20, 2016 7:29 am

Hearing the Euro EPS is similar to GFS: double-barrel lows with one tracking to the 40/70 benchmark Sun AM...

by **RJB8525** Wed Jan 20, 2016 7:47 am

First official call I've seen. Lee said he would put out a map also today

01/22/16 - 01/23/16 Update #3 - Will Models Trend Back North? - Page 15 650x366_01201036_hd26

01/22/16 - 01/23/16 Update #3 - Will Models Trend Back North? - Page 15 650x366_01201036_hd26

by **Frank_Wx** Wed Jan 20, 2016 7:49 am

SNOW MAN wrote:Frank, what time do they run. Thanks.

I think Mugs has something in the Weather Education thread showing model times:

https://www.njstrongweatherforum.com/t573-weather-model-times

CPcantmeasuresnow wrote:Frank how concerned are you with last nights GFS ensembles being pretty far south of the operational? Personally it ruined my sleep.

Ensembles are low resolution and should not be used in the short range. They're only meant for 5+ days out.

RJB8525 wrote:First official call I've seen. Lee said he would put out a map also today

I will have a 1st call out between 6-7pm.

by **CPcantmeasuresnow** Wed Jan 20, 2016 7:50 am

Thanks Frank, I never knew that about the ensembles. Very Happy

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