01/22/16 - 01/23/16 Update #3 - Will Models Trend Back North?

Frank_Wx wrote:Getting a chance to look at models this morning - I am a little concerned for posters N&W of the NYC. A sharp cut off is beginning to show. This is due to the fast northern jet reigning dry air over the area. This is a massive storm so as long as it is near the coast N&W will not have issues. We'll see how today goes.

Frank_Wx wrote:

weatherwatchermom wrote:I know I sound like jman...lol..can anyone talk about the wind with the models from last night..

EURO last night shows sustained winds along the shore around 40mph. Gusts are potentially near 60mph.

sroc4 wrote:There were many who last week canceled winter and stuck your head in the sand, both posting and silent members. (You know who you are)  For those of you who canceled winter last week your penance will be that you have to watch this one from the sidelines.  Your flight to Florida will be departing early Friday morning.  I have booked a nice hotel just outside the Disney resort where the weather will be sunny and 85*f, perfect for all you winter cancel weenies.  The good news is there is free Wi-Fi so you will not be any data charges towards your plan as you monitor the storm.  

All kidding aside here it is folks.  My first official snow map of the season!   If you would like to make a snow map please post it here and one of the moderators will move it into the snow map thread for reference.  

A potent piece of upper level energy seen in this satellite currently in the NW CONUS (CONtinental United States), will be diving south and east today into tomorrow.  By afternoon time tomorrow it will spawn a surface low pressure center in eastern Texas.  The LP center will then track slowly North East from there.  By Sat morning into afternoon it will exit the east coast somewhere off the Virginia coastline and cont to track N and East.  Snowfall for our coverage area should begin sometime late Friday into very early Sat. from north to south.  
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Here is where this forecast is still a tad tricky.  As you can see by my snowfall map I call it a first call map.  The reasoning is that the energy that is our system has only come on shore in the west yesterday, so weather models have only just begun to get much better information about the details of this energy and how it all comes together.  In the last 24-36hrs we have seen some shifts in track, intensity, and ultimately outcomes for this system.  However, I believe we are finally locking onto a soln, but there is still time for things to shift.  I believe at this time only minor shifts will be seen but a shift of only 50-70miles to the track could mean the difference between measuring in inches or feet for some (but not all).

In the satellite image I believe the LP center will take a track somewhere between the lines I have drawn.  If the final track is closer to the northern most track then I may need to shift some of my totals up.  If the track is closer to the southern track then I may need to shift totals down.  I am also looking at the mid level temperatures.  For now mid levels all look to be cold enough throughout the storm to support all snow although I cannot rule out brief mixing along the S shore of LI and the Jersey coastline because there is a brief time that the surface temperature goes slightly above freezing.  It appears a LP will track to our west on the back side of this system as it pulls out which will bring a warm nose of midlevel air above freezing.  I do not, however, think the timing of it is after our system is departing, and do not think it will be significant enough to affect the overall outcome of my thinking.

We still have 3days or so to go. I do expect things to cont to wiggle and wobble regarding the details.  The fine tuning of these details, which could lead to big changes in "your" back yard will be sorted out over the next two days.  I will have a final call map if needed by Friday.  

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jmanley32 wrote:1010 WIN around 8am said a foot around city, winds gusting to 55mph beach erosion and coastal flooding.  We know how many people listen to 1010 WIN and that's  conservative on the snow I think possibly.  But the masses are out so let the store packing begin.

Nice map and writeup sroc