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01/22/16 - 01/23/16 Update #3 - Will Models Trend Back North?

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Post by rb924119 Wed Jan 20, 2016 9:17 am

Through 36 on the NAM the trough is still open and neutral. Better than 00z at least lol

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Post by RJB8525 Wed Jan 20, 2016 9:18 am

jmanley32 wrote:1010 WIN around 8am said a foot around city, winds gusting to 55mph beach erosion and coastal flooding.  We know how many people listen to 1010 WIN and that's  conservative on the snow I think possibly.  But the masses are out so let the store packing begin.

Nice map and writeup sroc

well either 1 or 2 things happen lol

1 people will say "Its not gonna snow they know nothing

and 2 "GRAB THE MILK AND BREAD HURRY"

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Post by CPcantmeasuresnow Wed Jan 20, 2016 9:19 am

weatherwatchermom wrote:I know I sound like jman...lol..can anyone talk about the wind with the models from last night..

Oh no, the female Jman, say it aint so.
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Post by chief7 Wed Jan 20, 2016 9:20 am

I know it is the nam but Frank any word on it

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Post by jmanley32 Wed Jan 20, 2016 9:21 am

RJB8525 wrote:
jmanley32 wrote:1010 WIN around 8am said a foot around city, winds gusting to 55mph beach erosion and coastal flooding.  We know how many people listen to 1010 WIN and that's  conservative on the snow I think possibly.  But the masses are out so let the store packing begin.

Nice map and writeup sroc

well either 1 or 2 things happen lol

1 people will say "Its not gonna snow they know nothing

and 2 "GRAB THE MILK AND BREAD HURRY"

so far people are brushing it off (at least from the people I heard talking so far today), no pun intended lol
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Post by rb924119 Wed Jan 20, 2016 9:22 am

Through 42 the eastern confluence appears to be faster moving out. Stronger piece of energy, but faster. Let's see if the eastern heights can respond fast enough......my gut tells me no, but I've been wrong before haha

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Post by rb924119 Wed Jan 20, 2016 9:24 am

Trough is also broader than 00z

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Post by CPcantmeasuresnow Wed Jan 20, 2016 9:25 am

I've never understood the bread and milk thing. Ive seen 4 storms of 30 or more inches in the last 20 years and there's never been more than a 24 hour period that I didn't feel safe going out on the roads. we're only talking right now at least on the news media of 8-16 or so.

Do people consume that much bread and milk that worst case scenario they couldn't do without any for say 36 hours?
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Post by rb924119 Wed Jan 20, 2016 9:28 am

Through 48 trough is still open, tilting negatively now and confluence is still faster on the exit. All encouraging signs. The fact that it still isn't closed is highly encouraging.....

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Post by RJB8525 Wed Jan 20, 2016 9:28 am

CPcantmeasuresnow wrote:I've never understood the bread and milk thing. Ive seen 4 storms of 30 or more inches in the last 20 years and there's never been more than a 24 hour period that I didn't feel safe going out on the roads. we're only talking right now at least on the news media of 8-16 or so.

Do people consume that much bread and milk that worst case scenario they couldn't do without any for say 36 hours?

lol i don't know but it's becoming the biggest joke of all storms now..imagine an apocalypse? Bread factories would be raided
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Post by rb924119 Wed Jan 20, 2016 9:32 am

Finally closed off at 54, but further southeast than 00z. I think that may be the dagger...

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Post by Guest Wed Jan 20, 2016 9:33 am

CPcantmeasuresnow wrote:
weatherwatchermom wrote:I know I sound like jman...lol..can anyone talk about the wind with the models from last night..

Oh no, the female Jman, say it aint so.
Very Happy Very Happy Very Happy Very Happy Shocked Shocked Shocked savior savior savior savior Thumbs up Thumbs up Thumbs up

.....what a sight that would be!

Great write-up sroc!

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Post by Quietace Wed Jan 20, 2016 9:34 am

rb924119 wrote:Finally closed off at 54, but further southeast than 00z. I think that may be the dagger...
I dont 100% agree, Still think this produces something up this way, but with the confluence the way it is it may be another tight gradient run.
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Post by jmanley32 Wed Jan 20, 2016 9:34 am

syosnow94 wrote:
CPcantmeasuresnow wrote:
weatherwatchermom wrote:I know I sound like jman...lol..can anyone talk about the wind with the models from last night..

Oh no, the female Jman, say it aint so.
Very Happy Very Happy Very Happy Very Happy Shocked Shocked Shocked savior savior savior savior Thumbs up Thumbs up Thumbs up

.....what a sight that would be!  

Great write-up sroc!

HAHA Guys, She must be gorgeous
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Post by Frank_Wx Wed Jan 20, 2016 9:38 am

Hour 66 of 12z NAM heights along the EC are higher. This would be a nice run.

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Post by Frank_Wx Wed Jan 20, 2016 9:39 am

Hour 69 the trough is also going negative.

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Post by SoulSingMG Wed Jan 20, 2016 9:39 am

NAM appears to be a nice hit actually
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Post by Frank_Wx Wed Jan 20, 2016 9:40 am

01/22/16 - 01/23/16 Update #3 - Will Models Trend Back North? - Page 17 NAM_MSLPThickQPF_ne_f75

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Post by Frank_Wx Wed Jan 20, 2016 9:41 am

01/22/16 - 01/23/16 Update #3 - Will Models Trend Back North? - Page 17 NAM_CritThickRH_ne_f75

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Post by Frank_Wx Wed Jan 20, 2016 9:42 am

01/22/16 - 01/23/16 Update #3 - Will Models Trend Back North? - Page 17 NAM_MSLPThickQPF_ne_f78

01/22/16 - 01/23/16 Update #3 - Will Models Trend Back North? - Page 17 NAM_CritThickRH_ne_f78


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Post by Frank_Wx Wed Jan 20, 2016 9:43 am

MADONNE

01/22/16 - 01/23/16 Update #3 - Will Models Trend Back North? - Page 17 NAM_MSLPThickQPF_ne_f81

01/22/16 - 01/23/16 Update #3 - Will Models Trend Back North? - Page 17 NAM_CritThickRH_ne_f81

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Post by Biggin23 Wed Jan 20, 2016 9:43 am

If the freezing line sets up where the NAM has it there would be some monster totals....hope it still looks like this in 36 hours!

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Post by Frank_Wx Wed Jan 20, 2016 9:43 am

Winds

01/22/16 - 01/23/16 Update #3 - Will Models Trend Back North? - Page 17 NAM_MSLP10mWind_ne_f81

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Post by Frank_Wx Wed Jan 20, 2016 9:45 am

01/22/16 - 01/23/16 Update #3 - Will Models Trend Back North? - Page 17 NAM_MSLPThickQPF_ne_f84

QPF through hour 84 with much more to come

01/22/16 - 01/23/16 Update #3 - Will Models Trend Back North? - Page 17 NAM_QPFtotal_ne_f84

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Post by Quietace Wed Jan 20, 2016 9:45 am

This run is frigid! 32F and 0C to the coast!
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Post by SoulSingMG Wed Jan 20, 2016 9:46 am

Blizzard Watches just hoisted for entire DC/Baltimore Metros.
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Post by RJB8525 Wed Jan 20, 2016 9:49 am

Wow NNJ gets nice right there if im reading it correctly on what the map is showing with the qpf
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