01/22/16 - 01/23/16 Update #3 - Will Models Trend Back North?

I'm not looking great but I'm happy for everyone in the sweet spots

By the way (Frank), I still have all of my spoons under my pillow and am still wearing clothes inside out for you guys.....must be good mojo after all haha

hopefully not enough to keep me from getting to the gym

Not as bad as BDB where 6 and 16" were 5 miles away...

southern WC NYC LI and NJ look to be consistently jackpot zones, wish we could all be in it to win it but theres nothing we can do to change this. Hopefully things continue in a good direction, frank hoisting the monster means he is pretty confident in these runs being good.

Quietace wrote:

skinsfan1177 wrote:Cnj is crushed I better get sleep I will be plowing forever

Yall better have the roads cleared by mid-Sunday, i need to head back to school.

 I will try my best Ryan. What do think we are looking at here I trust your input

skinsfan1177 wrote:

Quietace wrote:

skinsfan1177 wrote:Cnj is crushed I better get sleep I will be plowing forever

Yall better have the roads cleared by mid-Sunday, i need to head back to school.

 I will try my best Ryan. What do think we are looking at here I trust your input

Ask me after the 18z GFS

when do you think the National Weather Service will start putting up watches

Quietace wrote:

skinsfan1177 wrote:

Quietace wrote:

skinsfan1177 wrote:Cnj is crushed I better get sleep I will be plowing forever

Yall better have the roads cleared by mid-Sunday, i need to head back to school.

 I will try my best Ryan. What do think we are looking at here I trust your input

Ask me after the 18z GFS

I will lol

jmanley32 wrote:southern WC NYC LI and NJ look to be consistently jackpot zones, wish we could all be in it to win it but theres nothing we can do to change this. Hopefully things continue in a good direction, frank hoisting the monster means he is pretty confident in these runs being good.

originally being from Yonkers i recognize it as Southern Westchester.......do we still consider Hartsdale/White plains area southern? i think we do..........Northern Westchester is more Yorktown, Mahopac in my thinking right?

I see down in DC they put a blizzard watches are ready

The reason why I went to Godzilla storm mode is because my confidence is high that NJ / NYC / LI will see a 12"+ snowfall. That said, models are still trending but based off what I am seeing at H5 I think they'll keep changing to support an even greater snowfall, specifically for those N&W of NYC. Regardless, this will be an intense storm especially for D.C. Will be amazing to see how it all comes together.

https://www.njstrongweatherforum.com/t636-godzilla-storm-mode-1-23-16

RJB8525 wrote:STORM MODE!!!!!!

.

DUDE it is teh GODZILLA STORM MODE
BOOOYYYAHHHHH!!

RGEM Ensembles

Oh well getting used to this, expect little give much. I will cheer on those to the south, the HV is not the place to be this storm and that's been fairly apparent from the beginning. Some runs said otherwise but not enough runs to be convincing. The force field seems to be in place at I287 in NY, maybe with luck as far north as I84.

Frank, do you expect a north trend to continue at this point? or its anyone's guess

chief7 wrote: when do you think the National Weather Service will start putting up watches

Could be as early as tonight with watches most likely they will do it in the early AM.

@ Frank, as my friend teh pro met who workks for NOAA and know Meteocenter of NYH State- the kid Scott who I tried to get to join - stated this morning - coach ( I coached him in soccer went on to be an all american at Lydon State College) the PVA is so strong overhead and the confluence not modelled correctly heights rise rapid out in front of LP as the is closes off over the Ark/Tenn area and that means a NW trajectory - he feels it comes off of the DelMarva by Ocean City is his guess and we see a CAT 4 Nesis storm - if it can get a tick further North. Feels the NW trend will continue by jogs of 10 -25 miles over the next few runs

lglickman1 wrote:Frank, do you expect a north trend to continue at this point?  or its anyone's guess

Confluence keeps trending weaker. I think tomorrow we will see N&W have higher totals on the models.

amugs wrote:

chief7 wrote: when do you think the National Weather Service will start putting up watches

Could be as early as tonight with watches most likely they will do it in the early AM.

@ Frank, as my friend teh pro met who workks for NOAA and know Meteocenter of NYH State- the kid Scott who I tried to get to join - stated this morning - coach ( I coached him in soccer went on to be an all american at Lydon State College) the PVA is so strong overhead and the confluence not modelled correctly heights rise rapid out in front of LP as the is closes off over the Ark/Tenn area and that means a NW trajectory - he feels it comes off of the DelMarva by Ocean City is his guess and we see a CAT 4 Nesis storm - if it can get a tick further North. Feels the NW trend will continue by jogs of 10 -25 miles over the next few runs

Sounds great to me! Watches tomorrow, warnings by Friday, probably b work warnings from what it looks like for most area since 35mph winds is all it takes and everyone along and just inland is seeing that or much higher.

Frank_Wx wrote:

lglickman1 wrote:Frank, do you expect a north trend to continue at this point?  or its anyone's guess

Confluence keeps trending weaker. I think tomorrow we will see N&W have higher totals on the models.

Sounds good to me!  thanks!

Thanks Mugs

Frank_Wx wrote:

That cutoff is just insanity! So sharp.

Frank_Wx wrote:

that looks like 12-18 for NYC and very southern WC wooo, and yes WP etc is southern wc, though its not for watch warning purposes. Wow CT gets very little and haha boston gets shafted.

Frank is at 10to1

Any chance with the intensity we see ratios higher than 10:1, I believe that map is 10:1

SoulSingMG wrote:

Frank_Wx wrote:

That cutoff is just insanity! So sharp.

Stop rubbing it in. JK