01/22/16 - 01/23/16 Update #3 - Will Models Trend Back North?

It barely moves from 45-48 I think it might capture

amugs wrote:

amugs wrote:EPS mean - North of 0Z - excellent trend still going

KNYC  13
CNJ 17

North of NYC 6-12" - tight gradient - every 10 -25 mile jog is going to be huge for some members here

Eps are much improved aloft and at the surface.

Definitive bump n and w.

Mugs can you unlock the snow maps thread for me? thanks.

*42 to 45

algae888 wrote:nws snow map...

through 7am sat

Looks like they cut back from this morning?

i was going to post mt holly/philly snow map but they haven't updated it since 8am this morning

essexcountypete wrote:

snow247 wrote:

essexcountypete wrote:

snow247 wrote:Going by the models today, I'll be getting flurries while places 20 miles south of me get 12"-24"+.

Sick.

Btw, can someone open the snow map thread? I have a first call to post.

Already open...
https://www.njstrongweatherforum.com/t635-jan-23rd-24th-2016-snow-maps-only

I know, it's locked.

So it is. Odd.

no the mods said earlier they going to keep it locked, post your snow maps here and they will move it to that thread. They do not want any comments in that thread.

Okay boys, just put out hot off the press

WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM LATE FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING...
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MOUNT HOLLY HAS ISSUED A WINTER STORM WATCH... WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM LATE FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING.

* LOCATIONS... FAR NORTHERN SUBURBS OF PHILADELPHIA... LEHIGH VALLEY... SOUTHERN POCONOS... AND NORTHWESTERN NEW JERSEY.
* HAZARD TYPES... HEAVY SNOW.
* SNOW ACCUMULATIONS... 4 TO 8 INCHES.
* TIMING... SNOW IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN FRIDAY NIGHT... THEN CONTINUE HEAVY AT TIMES INTO SUNDAY MORNING.
* IMPACTS... SNOW MAY BE DRY AND PUFFY AT THE START, BUT WILL BECOME WETTER AND HEAVIER AS THE EVENT UNFOLDS. SHOVELING MAY BE PROBLEMATIC FOR THOSE WITH PHYSICAL AILMENTS. SNOW MAY CLING TO WIRES AND TREES WHICH MAY CAUSE POWER OUTAGES. ROADS WILL BECOME IMPASSABLE DUE TO INCREASING ACCUMULATION DURING THE EVENT.
* WINDS... NORTHEAST 15 TO 25 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 35 MPH.

jmanley32 wrote:

essexcountypete wrote:

snow247 wrote:

essexcountypete wrote:

snow247 wrote:Going by the models today, I'll be getting flurries while places 20 miles south of me get 12"-24"+.

Sick.

Btw, can someone open the snow map thread? I have a first call to post.

Already open...
https://www.njstrongweatherforum.com/t635-jan-23rd-24th-2016-snow-maps-only

I know, it's locked.

So it is. Odd.

no the mods said earlier they going to keep it locked, post your snow maps here and they will move it to that thread.  They do not want any comments in that thread.

Must have missed that, thanks jman.

Holly Went With WSW. Understandable conservative approach at this time. Will be updated quickly if 0z Models hold.

Upton will be the last to chime in on advisories or warnings especially NYC and southern WC, for some reason they always seem to put this area last, always wondered why.

Quietace wrote:Holly Went With WSW. Understandable conservative approach at this time. Will be updated quickly if 0z Models hold.

Interesting that Monmouth county is put in the same WSW as the Poconos and not in the watch that includes Ocean county lol. I'm just going to assume that'll be changing

Sanchize06 wrote:

Quietace wrote:Holly Went With WSW. Understandable conservative approach at this time. Will be updated quickly if 0z Models hold.

Interesting that Monmouth county is put in the same WSW as the Poconos and not in the watch that includes Ocean county lol. I'm just going to assume that'll be changing

Broad brushed it ATM. Only included snow totals for Friday/Friday Night on advisories. We might get 3-5 in the first few hours of the system.

NWS disco talks a lot about p-type issues and is very concservative on snow amounts mainly staying below 8 inches for all of upton discussion area. I'd think this will change after 00z goods, and I am pretty sure the models tonight will have us all sleeping happy dreams. crossing fingers, spoons under pillow lol

jmanley32 wrote:Upton will be the last to chime in on advisories or warnings especially NYC and southern WC, for some reason they always seem to put this area last, always wondered why.

They have to give DeBlasio 24 hours in advance for any type of warnings are issued for his excuse on how poor the cleanup was

snow247 wrote:My first call.

I will move it to the snow maps thread once someone unlocks it.

I posted this in the Snow maps thread. Nice job! Anyone else who wants to make a map post in in here and one of us will move it over.

Thanks sroc.

18z NAM is rolling, looks like about the same as 12z.

Sanchize06 wrote:

Quietace wrote:Holly Went With WSW. Understandable conservative approach at this time. Will be updated quickly if 0z Models hold.

Interesting that Monmouth county is put in the same WSW as the Poconos and not in the watch that includes Ocean county lol. I'm just going to assume that'll be changing

New Discsusion out, Holly saying 12-16 inside I-95 corridor, mixing limited to Delmarva.

Ouch! nice job but I think the numbers will tick up. Or to re-phrase that, I HOPE the numbers tick up.

Looks SE of 12z, great.

Scullybutcher wrote:Why do you guys think ratios will be higher then 10-1. It's a lot of moisture and the temps will be right around freezing. I think it will be a wet heavy snow which should keep totals around 10-1.

Scully it will depend on where we are talking about to determine ratios.  The immediate coast will most likely see ratios at or around 10:1(+/-).  As soon as your away from the coast the Surface temps look no warmer than upper 20's and the mid levels, 925mb/850mb are -6 to -12 so higher ratios possible/likely in those areas.

Quietace wrote:

Sanchize06 wrote:

Quietace wrote:Holly Went With WSW. Understandable conservative approach at this time. Will be updated quickly if 0z Models hold.

Interesting that Monmouth county is put in the same WSW as the Poconos and not in the watch that includes Ocean county lol. I'm just going to assume that'll be changing

Broad brushed it ATM. Only included snow totals for Friday/Friday Night on advisories. We might get 3-5 in the first few hours of the system.

Oh okay, that makes more sense then

NAM hits the proverbial wall just north  of I 287 in NY State

the NASM overdoing it a tad - this wopuld be 3-5" rates per hour plus in that dark blue band!!

Quietace wrote:

Sanchize06 wrote:

Quietace wrote:Holly Went With WSW. Understandable conservative approach at this time. Will be updated quickly if 0z Models hold.

Interesting that Monmouth county is put in the same WSW as the Poconos and not in the watch that includes Ocean county lol. I'm just going to assume that'll be changing

New Discsusion out, Holly saying 12-16 inside I-95 corridor, mixing limited to Delmarva.

Yep, I probably should have read the discussion in the beginning instead of just the watch haha. And yeah I think we can pretty much forget about any mixing issues unless the low moves over SNJ

Upton just increased their maps into sat night 6-8 NYC.

amugs wrote:the NASM overdoing it a tad - this wopuld be 3-5" rates per hour plus in that dark blue band!!

dear lord please let this come true I win the mega jackpot! As do many others too. But its the NAM show this tomorrow into Fri then ill be jumping

NYC and LI and parts of NNJ get absolutely smoked it this 6 hour timeframe