Re: 01/22/16 - 01/23/16 Update #3 - Will Models Trend Back North?

by **SoulSingMG** Wed Jan 20, 2016 11:45 am

12z JMA is a hit I'm hearing. For whatever that is good for. Wink

by **crippo84** Wed Jan 20, 2016 11:47 am

rb924119 wrote:CANADIAN BOUTTA GO THE PROVERBIAL HAM SWISS SALAMI AND CHEESE SANDWICH ON US

This is the best quote I've read in my many years of following you guys. I almost lost it at work.

Looks like a great run for the city, but all the comments on CFI have me very curious about it. Keep up the great work you guys.

by **jmanley32** Wed Jan 20, 2016 11:48 am

12z cmc snow map, but with possible issues do not worry about the SE movement. NYC, southern Westchester, NJ and LI still do very well, have been in the zone for all runs so far.
01/22/16 - 01/23/16 Update #3 - Will Models Trend Back North? - Page 22 Cmc_sn11

01/22/16 - 01/23/16 Update #3 - Will Models Trend Back North? - Page 22 Cmc_sn11

by **rb924119** Wed Jan 20, 2016 11:48 am

sroc4 wrote:Frank Rb do you guys not feel its possible that insted of CFI its actuallyt the redevelopment of a new LP center at the triple point in response to an occluded front via the original main LP center backing under the ULL??

Certainly possible. In fact, it's probably likely. But the other dynamics should override that for a while, I would think.

by **Artechmetals** Wed Jan 20, 2016 11:53 am

Have a question we were talking about how this storm could of possibly been historic is that off the table or is it still possible

by **rb924119** Wed Jan 20, 2016 11:53 am

Here's my issue with the CMC. The following maps depict 500 hPa heights and vorticity (energy), with what think should be going on based on the maps...

01/22/16 - 01/23/16 Update #3 - Will Models Trend Back North? - Page 22 Slide111

01/22/16 - 01/23/16 Update #3 - Will Models Trend Back North? - Page 22 Slide111

01/22/16 - 01/23/16 Update #3 - Will Models Trend Back North? - Page 22 Slide112

The green circle represents where I think the actual closed circulation should be based on the wind field, while the blue rectangle represents the area of best deformation, and forcing for the heaviest snows. This is what I think Frank is seeing too; the surface maps don't seem to be matching up with the synoptic (large-scale) areas of best ascent depicted in the mid- and upper-levels. It's almost like the surface is being disconnected from the other levels, and leading to the results we're seeing.

by **Frank_Wx** Wed Jan 20, 2016 11:54 am

Artechmetals wrote:Have a question we were talking about how this storm could of possibly been historic is that off the table or is it still possible

DC is getting 25-35"

I'll say historic even if the higher amounts are not over our area. The NWS will surely rank this NESIS 4 or 5.

by **sroc4** Wed Jan 20, 2016 11:54 am

Artechmetals wrote:Have a question we were talking about how this storm could of possibly been historic is that off the table or is it still possible

It more than likely will be for mid atlantic vs our coverage area. Probably a MECS for us which is aight by me

by **Artechmetals** Wed Jan 20, 2016 11:56 am

Frank could those numbers move into our area or not likely

by **CPcantmeasuresnow** Wed Jan 20, 2016 11:59 am

jmanley32 wrote:12z cmc snow map, but with possible issues do not worry about the SE movement. NYC, southern Westchester, NJ and LI still do very well, have been in the zone for all runs so far.

If you're in eastern orange county you are getting dizzy the last 48 hours. 3 inches, 12 inches, 24 inches 4 inches, 20 inches, 3 inches. That's why as Frank and others have said ignore the qpf for now. It does however appear pretty consistent that the HV especially 40 mile and up from NYC will be a battleground and sharp cuttoff somewhere. If I get another anti-virga storm I may lose it.

by **jake732** Wed Jan 20, 2016 12:00 pm

Artechmetals wrote:Frank could those numbers move into our area or not likely

no chance

by **RJB8525** Wed Jan 20, 2016 12:02 pm

jmanley32 wrote:12z cmc snow map, but with possible issues do not worry about the SE movement. NYC, southern Westchester, NJ and LI still do very well, have been in the zone for all runs so far.

not sure what to think for NNJ or if i should not think about it at all if the QPF was screwy but that map so far has the lowest amount snow total up to date

by **jimv45** Wed Jan 20, 2016 12:02 pm

cp hyde i will be happy with a 3-6 I know i want more who knows still got time but just something for my 2 Siberian Huskies to play around and of course me too!!!

by **skinsfan1177** Wed Jan 20, 2016 12:06 pm

jake732 wrote:
Artechmetals wrote:Frank could those numbers move into our area or not likely
no chance

Jake don't worry about mixing we are in the jackpot let it play out

by **jake732** Wed Jan 20, 2016 12:07 pm

skinns ur in dream land im in reality land

by **rb924119** Wed Jan 20, 2016 12:07 pm

GFS ensembles are a non-event for us northern and western folks lol

by **hyde345** Wed Jan 20, 2016 12:11 pm

jimv45 wrote:cp hyde i will be happy with a 3-6 I know i want more who knows still got time but just something for my 2 Siberian Huskies to play around and of course me too!!!

Jim, that's what I think we get in Dutchess county. You could get closer to 6 and I could get closer to 3. That's how sharp the precip cutoff will be.

by **jimv45** Wed Jan 20, 2016 12:11 pm

Yea Rb still got time !! I am going to Hunter Mountain Sat with family so if we don't get much here at least I will get to see snow!!

by **amugs** Wed Jan 20, 2016 12:11 pm

rb924119 wrote:GFS ensembles are a non-event for us northern and western folks lol

01/22/16 - 01/23/16 Update #3 - Will Models Trend Back North? - Page 22 GFS-ENS_MSLPThickQPF_ne_f84

by **sroc4** Wed Jan 20, 2016 12:12 pm

jake732 wrote:skinns ur in dream land im in reality land

Mixing is not likely to be an issue at this point. Should not supress any totals. Track is most important at this point boys

by **jimv45** Wed Jan 20, 2016 12:13 pm

Yea hyde I think 3- 6 but lets get a big surprise and double that getting greedy!!!

by **skinsfan1177** Wed Jan 20, 2016 12:13 pm

jake732 wrote:skinns ur in dream land im in reality land

Where are you getting info bc it's not on here and these are the guys I listen too

by **sroc4** Wed Jan 20, 2016 12:14 pm

My personal opinion on Ensembles in this tight is like trying to look at something 6feet in front of you with Binoculars. Its time to put down the Binoculars and pick up the magify lense

by **CPcantmeasuresnow** Wed Jan 20, 2016 12:14 pm

rb924119 wrote:GFS ensembles are a non-event for us northern and western folks lol

I've been concerned with that from the beginning. There's a certain point north of the city that the heavy precip just cannot seem to penetrate. If it happens we root for everyone else in our area. However if DC and Baltimore get 25-35 and that seems likely from every run so far I will be ill.

by **RJB8525** Wed Jan 20, 2016 12:15 pm

CPcantmeasuresnow wrote:
rb924119 wrote:GFS ensembles are a non-event for us northern and western folks lol

I've been concerned with that from the beginning. There's a certain point north of the city that the heavy precip just cannot seem to penetrate. If it happens we root for everyone else in our area. However if DC and Baltimore get 25-35 and that seems likely from every run so far I will be ill.

Euro will make a lot of people happy and kill off others IMO

nervous about this run lol

by **jimv45** Wed Jan 20, 2016 12:17 pm

yea Cp that's the way its been Like I was saying I will take 3-6 at this point the heavy stuff stays south but it will be colder so we hope for something!

by **Scullybutcher** Wed Jan 20, 2016 12:19 pm

Frank_Wx wrote:
Artechmetals wrote:Have a question we were talking about how this storm could of possibly been historic is that off the table or is it still possible

DC is getting 25-35"

I'll say historic even if the higher amounts are not over our area. The NWS will surely rank this NESIS 4 or 5.

NESIS 4 or 5?

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