Re: 01/22/16 - 01/23/16 Update #3 - Will Models Trend Back North?

by **jmanley32** Wed Jan 20, 2016 3:45 pm

amugs wrote:the NASM overdoing it a tad - this wopuld be 3-5" rates per hour plus in that dark blue band!!

dear lord please let this come true I win the mega jackpot! As do many others too. But its the NAM show this tomorrow into Fri then ill be jumping

by **amugs** Wed Jan 20, 2016 3:45 pm

NYC and LI and parts of NNJ get absolutely smoked it this 6 hour timeframe

01/22/16 - 01/23/16 Update #3 - Will Models Trend Back North? - Page 30 NAM_MSLPThickQPF_ne_f84

01/22/16 - 01/23/16 Update #3 - Will Models Trend Back North? - Page 30 NAM_MSLPThickQPF_ne_f84

by **NjWeatherGuy** Wed Jan 20, 2016 3:45 pm

NAM = NJ fantasy storm

by **Quietace** Wed Jan 20, 2016 3:46 pm

This run could have 20" of snow and then 5 miles to the north 1-3". It is that sharp.

by **snow247** Wed Jan 20, 2016 3:46 pm

Hope all you NJ members post lots of pics during this historic blizzard. Congrats guys.

by **RJB8525** Wed Jan 20, 2016 3:47 pm

snow247 wrote:Hope all you NJ members post lots of pics during this historic blizzard. Congrats guys.

We'll see i'm highly border line NWS etc aren't buying the northern trend that much for higher amounts

by **CPcantmeasuresnow** Wed Jan 20, 2016 3:48 pm

amugs wrote:NAM hits the proverbial wall just north of I 287 in NY State

That invisible wall is looking pretty real now for several runs. Running out of time here for HV, backs against the wall. I've never really felt good about this being our storm so no surprises.

by **jmanley32** Wed Jan 20, 2016 3:48 pm

Just NJ? NYC and southern wc jackpot on that run too, fantasy storm 2 days out lol

by **amugs** Wed Jan 20, 2016 3:49 pm

I bet the qpf is like 2-3" on the NAM - talking 16-20" easy with this run maybe more - wow

01/22/16 - 01/23/16 Update #3 - Will Models Trend Back North? - Page 30 O0BViaB

by **Vinnydula** Wed Jan 20, 2016 3:50 pm

Looks like it just makes its up to yonkers.

by **jmanley32** Wed Jan 20, 2016 3:50 pm

The nam absolutely smoke NYC ffrom midday sat into late night.

by **amugs** Wed Jan 20, 2016 3:51 pm

What a frickin crazy cut off my god - it did jog a tad south this run but still a good run for a majority of the members here - Tom yuo win in bigtime here !

by **amugs** Wed Jan 20, 2016 3:51 pm

by **jmanley32** Wed Jan 20, 2016 3:51 pm

84 hrs its still snowing moderately.

by **CPcantmeasuresnow** Wed Jan 20, 2016 3:51 pm

WDC gets killed in every run of every model for 6 days now. If somehow they end up with 10 inches or less its time for some re-programming.

by **Sanchize06** Wed Jan 20, 2016 3:52 pm

by **jmanley32** Wed Jan 20, 2016 3:52 pm

amugs wrote:I bet the qpf is like 2-3" on the NAM - talking 16-20" easy with this run maybe more - wow

Yep its not done at 84 hrs, still quite a bit to go.

by **jimv45** Wed Jan 20, 2016 3:53 pm

cp if this happens it would be just a big punch in the gut because of the way this winter has gone finally a storm at hits the invisible wall plus I don't see much more chances!! Glad i am going skiing don't want to stay home and see this!! If things don't turn around enjoy southern people it your big one!!!!

by **amugs** Wed Jan 20, 2016 3:53 pm

jmanley32 wrote:84 hrs its still snowing moderately.

You call that Mod how about 1-2" per hour in that!

REMEMBER IT IS THE NAM PEEPS TAKE IT LIGHTLY FOR QPF AND AMOUNTS!!

by **CPcantmeasuresnow** Wed Jan 20, 2016 3:53 pm

I was in almost 2 inches of qpf on the last NAM run now about .2.

I've seen extreme cutoffs but this one ranks up near the top.

And life goes on.

by **jmanley32** Wed Jan 20, 2016 3:57 pm

amugs wrote:
jmanley32 wrote:84 hrs its still snowing moderately.

You call that Mod how about 1-2" per hour in that!

REMEMBER IT IS THE NAM PEEPS TAKE IT LIGHTLY FOR QPF AND AMOUNTS!!

At the end of the run, so what is the yellow and orange then 3-5 per hr?

by **Dtone** Wed Jan 20, 2016 3:58 pm

CPcantmeasuresnow wrote:WDC gets killed in every run of every model for 6 days now. If somehow they end up with 10 inches or less its time for some re-programming.

They appear destined to have a blizzard of 96 repeat.
Though I think models may overdue it a little.

These sharp cutoffs are way too close for comfort.

by **jmanley32** Wed Jan 20, 2016 3:58 pm

amugs wrote:

For those in southern Westchester the heaviest looks to get to near or just south of wqhite plains, that's a 15-20 min drive for me north, I would be amazed to see that sharp a cutoff of 15-20+ versus half that.