Re: 01/22/16 - 01/23/16 Update #3 - Will Models Trend Back North?

by **jimv45** Wed Jan 20, 2016 2:42 pm

2004 i get you but this winter i will take anything but stay positive i got a good feeling this will improve for us by tomorrow!

by Snowfall Wed Jan 20, 2016 2:45 pm

How can I make a snow map I said for days now nyc was gonna get a 2010 special maybe better. 16 " Brooklyn ny or more I feel we are in a secret jackpot zone I love this stuff

by **2004blackwrx** Wed Jan 20, 2016 2:45 pm

Im a postive person just not getting excited at this point. After being the bulls eye for i think Juno last year 12 hours before then relatively nothing I dont want let down especially this year.

by **CPcantmeasuresnow** Wed Jan 20, 2016 2:57 pm

2004blackwrx wrote:Im a postive person just not getting excited at this point. After being the bulls eye for i think Juno last year 12 hours before then relatively nothing I dont want let down especially this year.

A good tact to take.

I'd rather expect 2-3 inches and end up getting 12-18 than the other way around.

by **snow247** Wed Jan 20, 2016 2:58 pm

Going by the models today, I'll be getting flurries while places 20 miles south of me get 12"-24"+.

Sick.

Btw, can someone open the snow map thread? I have a first call to post.

by **frank 638** Wed Jan 20, 2016 3:01 pm

snow247 wrote:Going by the models today, I'll be getting flurries while places 20 miles south of me get 12"-24"+.

Sick.

Btw, can someone open the snow map thread? I have a first call to post.

by **essexcountypete** Wed Jan 20, 2016 3:02 pm

snow247 wrote:Going by the models today, I'll be getting flurries while places 20 miles south of me get 12"-24"+.

Sick.

Btw, can someone open the snow map thread? I have a first call to post.

Already open...
https://www.njstrongweatherforum.com/t635-jan-23rd-24th-2016-snow-maps-only

by **frank 638** Wed Jan 20, 2016 3:03 pm

Frank do u think NYC and parts of long island will have a blizzard watch or a winter storm watch

by **jmanley32** Wed Jan 20, 2016 3:07 pm

frank 638 wrote:Frank do u think NYC and parts of long island will have a blizzard watch or a winter storm watch

I know I'm not Frank but I asked this earlier and I think there will be at some point if things stay course. Blizzard warning 35mph winds or higher. Its all logistics though with wind not snow amounts. a WSW is just as good as blizzard warning but I know blizzard warning just sounds more exciting plus it sets off the emergency broadcast system on cellphones, its funny as the entire office building goes off its deafening. WSW doesn't do that.

by **amugs** Wed Jan 20, 2016 3:10 pm

EPS mean - North of 0Z - excellent trend still going

KNYC 13
CNJ 17

North of NYC 6-12" - tight gradient - every 10 -25 mile jog is going to be huge for some members here

by **NjWeatherGuy** Wed Jan 20, 2016 3:11 pm

15z SREF, wild spread of solutions

http://mp1.met.psu.edu/~fxg1/SREF21PRSNE_15z/srefloop.html#picture

by **frank 638** Wed Jan 20, 2016 3:12 pm

jmanley32 wrote:
frank 638 wrote:Frank do u think NYC and parts of long island will have a blizzard watch or a winter storm watch

I know I'm not Frank but I asked this earlier and I think there will be at some point if things stay course. Blizzard warning 35mph winds or higher. Its all logistics though with wind not snow amounts. a WSW is just as good as blizzard warning but I know blizzard warning just sounds more exciting plus it sets off the emergency broadcast system on cellphones, its funny as the entire office building goes off its deafening. WSW doesn't do that.

by **RJB8525** Wed Jan 20, 2016 3:14 pm

jmanley32 wrote:
frank 638 wrote:Frank do u think NYC and parts of long island will have a blizzard watch or a winter storm watch

I know I'm not Frank but I asked this earlier and I think there will be at some point if things stay course. Blizzard warning 35mph winds or higher. Its all logistics though with wind not snow amounts. a WSW is just as good as blizzard warning but I know blizzard warning just sounds more exciting plus it sets off the emergency broadcast system on cellphones, its funny as the entire office building goes off its deafening. WSW doesn't do that.

Real interested to see what Lee Goldberg has to say to see what local mets are thinking right now

by **snow247** Wed Jan 20, 2016 3:15 pm

essexcountypete wrote:
snow247 wrote:Going by the models today, I'll be getting flurries while places 20 miles south of me get 12"-24"+.

Sick.

Btw, can someone open the snow map thread? I have a first call to post.

Already open...
https://www.njstrongweatherforum.com/t635-jan-23rd-24th-2016-snow-maps-only

I know, it's locked.

by **snow247** Wed Jan 20, 2016 3:16 pm

My first call.

I will move it to the snow maps thread once someone unlocks it.

01/22/16 - 01/23/16 Update #3 - Will Models Trend Back North? - Page 28 Snowma10

by Deweydave Wed Jan 20, 2016 3:16 pm

How about the Brewster NY and Danbury Area near 84 heard around 6-10

by **algae888** Wed Jan 20, 2016 3:18 pm

nws snow map...
01/22/16 - 01/23/16 Update #3 - Will Models Trend Back North? - Page 28 StormTotalSnowFcst

through 7am sat

by **Quietace** Wed Jan 20, 2016 3:19 pm

jmanley32 wrote:
frank 638 wrote:Frank do u think NYC and parts of long island will have a blizzard watch or a winter storm watch

I know I'm not Frank but I asked this earlier and I think there will be at some point if things stay course. Blizzard warning 35mph winds or higher. Its all logistics though with wind not snow amounts. a WSW is just as good as blizzard warning but I know blizzard warning just sounds more exciting plus it sets off the emergency broadcast system on cellphones, its funny as the entire office building goes off its deafening. WSW doesn't do that.

Only those that meet criteria will get Blizzard Watches Tonight. Or if confidence isn't high enough for a blizzard, they would need high confidence in 7 to 8" to fall for Winter Storm Watch to be issues.
Blizzard Criteria reminders
1. Sustained wind or frequent gusts to 35 mph or greater; and
2.Considerable falling and/or blowing snow reducing visibility frequently to less than 1/4 mile for 3 or more hours.

by **NjWeatherGuy** Wed Jan 20, 2016 3:20 pm

18z NAM is deepening rapidly at 42.

by **Scullybutcher** Wed Jan 20, 2016 3:20 pm

Why do you guys think ratios will be higher then 10-1. It's a lot of moisture and the temps will be right around freezing. I think it will be a wet heavy snow which should keep totals around 10-1.

by **NjWeatherGuy** Wed Jan 20, 2016 3:21 pm

Over Alabama

by **amugs** Wed Jan 20, 2016 3:21 pm

amugs wrote:EPS mean - North of 0Z - excellent trend still going

KNYC 13
CNJ 17

North of NYC 6-12" - tight gradient - every 10 -25 mile jog is going to be huge for some members here

Eps are much improved aloft and at the surface.

Definitive bump n and w.

by **essexcountypete** Wed Jan 20, 2016 3:22 pm

snow247 wrote:
essexcountypete wrote:
snow247 wrote:Going by the models today, I'll be getting flurries while places 20 miles south of me get 12"-24"+.

Sick.

Btw, can someone open the snow map thread? I have a first call to post.

Already open...
https://www.njstrongweatherforum.com/t635-jan-23rd-24th-2016-snow-maps-only

I know, it's locked.

So it is. Odd.

by **jmanley32** Wed Jan 20, 2016 3:22 pm

algae888 wrote:nws snow map...

through 7am sat

that's a lot actually being that it doesn't really start till after midnight.

by **Quietace** Wed Jan 20, 2016 3:22 pm

Scullybutcher wrote:Why do you guys think ratios will be higher then 10-1. It's a lot of moisture and the temps will be right around freezing. I think it will be a wet heavy snow which should keep totals around 10-1.

Inland areas will see better ratios where winds are lighter and dendrite growth is better. Coastal areas due to sounding look 10-11: with initial surge of moisture, but ratios increase when CCB forms on the backside.

by **NjWeatherGuy** Wed Jan 20, 2016 3:23 pm

It barely moves from 45-48 I think it might capture

by **snow247** Wed Jan 20, 2016 3:23 pm

amugs wrote:
amugs wrote:EPS mean - North of 0Z - excellent trend still going

KNYC 13
CNJ 17

North of NYC 6-12" - tight gradient - every 10 -25 mile jog is going to be huge for some members here

Eps are much improved aloft and at the surface.
Definitive bump n and w.

Mugs can you unlock the snow maps thread for me? thanks.

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01/22/16 - 01/23/16 Update #3 - Will Models Trend Back North?