01/22/16 - 01/23/16 Update #3 - Will Models Trend Back North?

W/Dynamic Ratios

man what a sharp cut off

Note their is still hours of snow left^^

NAM has overall placement of heaviest snow axis in similar positions of other models; but as normal is printing out outrageous QPF that no other model agrees with. So either its picking up on dynamics other models aren't seeing, or we are seeing its normal bias(highly likely)

This is just not right. We need a large northern push.

algae888 wrote:
man what a sharp cut off

LOL sure is I nthat run Al I actually see a few more inches than you and we live next town over.

If this thing goes 40 miles south people will be jumping out of buildings.

It goes from 0 to 20 inches in that sharp a range. The gradient in the 96 storm was almost as extreme it was just about 75 miles north of what the NAM just showed.

well jman I don't think so. remember I am about 3 miles east of you which in this set up may mean a lot. still to close for comfort for me right now. hope this trends 50 miles north

i was watching a live facebook feed of Mr.G/WPIX11 its new crap they do i didn't know Lee did one the other day..he's going with 6-10 in the city right now the way he sees it and he thinks at one point somewhere mixing may get in

LOL CP, this thing is going to keep alot of us up tonight.

CPcantmeasuresnow wrote:If this thing goes 40 miles south people will be jumping out of buildings.

Yeah, that's the elephant in the forecast room. I'm preparing mentally for such a possibility, because, looking at that cutoff, how could you not.

no one within 50 miles of nyc should feel confident att with such a gradient as the models are showing. to close for comfort. I will not feel good about this until the snow actually starts falling.

Quietace wrote:W/Dynamic Ratios

All I can say is Wow lots of plowing and sleepless nights lol

whoever gets under the convective banding on the backend of the precip shield could over perform with snow totals and those just to the west of these bands  will see very little snow as there would be strong subsidence for them. wow a few miles may make a huge difference. tough to be a met right now big bust potential on both ends.

skinsfan1177 wrote:

Quietace wrote:W/Dynamic Ratios

All I can say is Wow lots of plowing and sleepless nights lol

I will call you Sunday to plow me a route the GSP

algae888 wrote:whoever gets under the convective banding on the backend of the precip shield could over perform with snow totals and those just to the west of these bands  will see very little snow as there would be strong subsidence for them. wow a few miles may make a huge difference. tough to be a met right now big bust potential on both ends.

If you are in a band and I am not I am coming over lol

algae888 wrote:no one within 50 miles of nyc should feel confident att with such a gradient as the models are showing. to close for comfort. I will not feel good about this until the snow actually starts falling.

You're right, ensembles are still worrying, only people still in a virtual lock are people in the apps mountains of VA disregarding any radical last minute shift but it seems like we've trended almost like from a storm with a westerly approach and a much further NW primary almost like a miller B with a transfer to now more like a miller A with the energy swinging much further to the south and just reintensifying to a stronger S/W miles away instead of an OV primary reaching for a transfer hundreds of miles away near Hatteras we now have more of a SE low swinging to the coast and driving north. Need the trough to tilt negative to get the storm to retrograde and pivot the bands over us as long as possible before its eventually pushed out to sea by the HP advancing from the west. The setups changed imo.

Which also means a later start time and shorter storm if we DONT get a retrograde.

18z coming in shortly if not already.

Lee went with 6-12 region wide minus cutoff southern point pleasent etc/ 12+ he said nyc can possibly in that zone

NJ peeps gotta love NAM eye candy....
http://mp1.met.psu.edu/~fxg1/ETAPA_18z/etaloop.html#picture

rb924119 wrote:Not that it's worth a DAMN thing......HOLY 18Z DGEX lmfao

Yesterdays run

It showed the 35" in NNJ remember lol...

18z gfs at hr 42, only site that's out that far that I know of for anyone who cares, isn't that a lot further south?