01/22/16 - 01/23/16 Update #3 - Will Models Trend Back North?

18z gfs at hr 42, only site that's out that far that I know of for anyone who cares, isn't that a lot further south?

NjWeatherGuy wrote:It showed the 35" in NNJ remember lol...

You're right lol Oops Thanks for killing the 1% of positive reserve I had left ahahaha jk

At 48 a little N of NAM at same time.

jmanley32 wrote:18z gfs at hr 42, only site that's out that far that I know of for anyone who cares, isn't that a lot further south?

Idk about the surface, but H5 is looking surprisingly better than 12z though 48. Heights are higher along the East Coast with less confluence....

Ladies and gents, we might actually have something here. 54 still not closed off and higher heights along EC. Let's give this a chance.....

Quietace wrote:W/Dynamic Ratios

I remember a storm a few years back where I got nothing IMBY. Saten Island received 6 to 8" and once you crossed into Jersey 1 foot+ all the way down to DC and Philly 20"+. Crazy sharp cut off. BUT THIS LOOKS CRAZIER!!! HOW CAN IT BE POSSIBLE FOR NENJ AND WESTERN LI TO SEE 18-20", BUT THE SOUTH SHORE OF CT 3-5" IMPOSSIBLE. NO FREAKIN WAY THIS HAPPENS!!!

Just saw Rayno's video. He brings 12+ almost to Trenton and then goes 6-12" still through LI. says Ct and north/east are the bust zones possibly. He says the American and Euro both move the 500 low DUE EAST! causing cutoff issues. I say we trust our young leader Frank. He's confident and hopefully this continues jogs north!

algae888 wrote:no one within 50 miles of nyc should feel confident att with such a gradient as the models are showing. to close for comfort. I will not feel good about this until the snow actually starts falling.

I'm with you!!

Ehh lookin a little east at 69

Another I-78 and south run

syosnow94 wrote:

Quietace wrote:W/Dynamic Ratios

I remember a storm a few years back where I got nothing IMBY.  Saten Island received 6 to 8" and once you crossed into Jersey 1 foot+ all the way down to DC and Philly 20"+.  Crazy sharp cut off. BUT THIS LOOKS CRAZIER!!!  HOW CAN IT BE POSSIBLE FOR NENJ AND WESTERN LI TO SEE 18-20", BUT THE SOUTH SHORE OF CT 3-5"  IMPOSSIBLE.  NO FREAKIN WAY THIS HAPPENS!!!

Just saw Rayno's video.  He brings 12+ almost to Trenton and then goes 6-12" still through LI.  says Ct and north/east are the bust zones possibly.  He says the American and Euro both move the 500 low DUE EAST!  causing cutoff issues.  I say we trust our young leader Frank.  He's confident and hopefully this continues jogs north!

In BDB I saw 6-7" while literally 5-10 miles east got 16-18". It happens, storm track was just far enough east to keep me out of the heavy banding for most of the storm and it led to a huge bust.... Had grassy spots on the yard.

It looks like it should have captured, then the 500mb trough just strung positive and shunted it OTS. Didnt happen this run. Weird evolution from Hatteras onward.

Actually its still negative but still goes OTS, hmmm.

not even gonna be the one to show the 18z snow map, lets just say matches 18z nam but to a much lesser degree on the large totals at the cutoff.

I do not like hearing the word OTS, that was Franks last choice for possibilities, that better not verify.

GFS says DC glory only

https://i.imgur.com/1M1PB9c.gif

This is probably the most frustrating storm I've ever tracked. It's been days now. I'd rather it just a big hit or OTS, the surprise us all. ;-)

P.s. DGEX is great. :-p

This is my last time following a storm my head hurts

Not even close to the NAM, shafts NYS and SNE.

SoulSingMG wrote:This is probably the most frustrating storm I've ever tracked. It's been days now. I'd rather it just a big hit or OTS, the surprise us all. ;-)

P.s. DGEX is great. :-p

Sure its todays run, I didnt think it updated until 6.

NjWeatherGuy wrote:GFS says DC glory only

https://i.imgur.com/1M1PB9c.gif

Unbelievable consistency with this; reminds me of a little "blizzard" here last January prior to its arrival.

At least the NWS is doing special launches for this lol That's cool

NjWeatherGuy wrote:

SoulSingMG wrote:This is probably the most frustrating storm I've ever tracked. It's been days now. I'd rather it just a big hit or OTS, the surprise us all. ;-)

P.s. DGEX is great. :-p

Sure its todays run, I didnt think it updated until 6.

Latest now takes it out to sea ahaha woo

Ehh I think 00z will be much better, OR this just will not be handled right until the last minute for better or for worse. Nowcast anyone?

Hey guys been following this site for sometime now and by reading everyone's post it seems like we could all agree that nw nj , the hudson valley and ne pa get screwed again oh well on to the next storm

SoulSingMG wrote:

NjWeatherGuy wrote:GFS says DC glory only

https://i.imgur.com/1M1PB9c.gif

Unbelievable consistency with this; reminds me of a little "blizzard" here last January prior to its arrival.

Itd be nice if they got shafted last minute but ill keep those hateful thoughts to myself. They got a historic storm 6 years ago Im running on a very long drought in my area, never even seen 30-40 pretty sure 20something is my record which is annoying...

jmanley32 wrote:Ehh I think 00z will be much better, OR this just will not be handled right until the last minute for better or for worse.  Nowcast anyone?

I wish I could be on the positive train right now J, I do. But it's looking more and more progressive a system by the run. I'd say we need a miracle to get a foot in NYC metro. IMHO! :-)

So Frank, sroc, rb why the bad trend again at 18z? I know this is kinda banter but this back and forth is tiring me out lol, and its big swings not little ones like a inch or two or huge mile changes.