Re: 01/23/16 Storm Update #4 - A Tough 1st Call

by **amugs** Thu Jan 21, 2016 2:31 pm

QPF NYC/NJ area (i-78 to i-195) Less North to more south of course.

SREF: 1.25- 1.55
NAM: 1.75 - 2.05
GFS: 0.55 - 1.45
GEFS: 0.85 - 1.45
RGEM:
GGEM: 0.40 - 0.80
UKMET: 0.85 - 1.50

by **snow247** Thu Jan 21, 2016 2:36 pm

How do the ukie and JMA look for us HV guys?

by **nutleyblizzard** Thu Jan 21, 2016 2:36 pm

amugs wrote:UKIE FTW - I'll take this and run!!

That's good to have the UKIE on our side. Most times the EURO follows suit.

by **skinsfan1177** Thu Jan 21, 2016 2:39 pm

Let's average all the qpf. From all the models in your area and that's what you Get lol

by **jmanley32** Thu Jan 21, 2016 2:40 pm

skinsfan1177 wrote:Let's average all the qpf. From all the models in your area and that's what you Get lol

Yeah they are all over the place, come tomorrow not gonna look at globals, its short range model trust time, right?

by **amugs** Thu Jan 21, 2016 2:41 pm

syosnow94 wrote:
amugs wrote:UKIE Precip Amounts
.6 - .8 Precip for NENJ

.8 - 1" - NYC

And the roller coaster continues....................

Mugs I was trying to get an answer from you during last nights chat. How confident is your boy still. the one you coached.

He still thinks this bad boy will trend northward to what degree he feels it will be the Va capes in a NE direction. Tad more south of his call yesterday but still darn good. That is an excellent position for our area. he too is not of the camp that this jumps due east it should follow the barclonic zone that set ups along the coast as storms due.We shall see.

I have a a friggin' headache for all this and will be checking in here and there after runs. All I know is the Ukie has had the hot hand in our storms so far and since it showed a tick/jog/move North is a dam good sign to me. If the Euro follows suite then we are in good shape and hope it starts 10-25/50 miles ticks per run which would be awesome for all here.

by **amugs** Thu Jan 21, 2016 2:42 pm

Nuts if we can get another 25 -50 mile tick N and W all members here are good IMO.

by **jmanley32** Thu Jan 21, 2016 2:49 pm

amugs wrote:Nuts if we can get another 25 -50 mile tick N and W all members here are good IMO.

Well not ALLL but most, I feel for the far northern members, shoot even I have a shot at not getting much but mugs I hope you are right a jog 10-15 miles north will put me in the zone. Lets hope its more than that but I am cautious right now.

by **docstox12** Thu Jan 21, 2016 2:49 pm

snow247 wrote:How do the ukie and JMA look for us HV guys?

Right now the model runs the last day or so have us consistently on the northern fringe of this storm.It's going to have to really show a north tick or two soon.I'm hoping for 6 and expecting 3.You should do better snow as you are further south.Jimv way up in Hyde Park is in bust territory.

If this sharp cutoff does play out, well, it just was not our storm and we will have to see what comes up next.To me this looks like Wash DC,Philly South Jersey get blasted with 15 to 20.

by **jmanley32** Thu Jan 21, 2016 2:52 pm

Wow! Lucky ....

BLIZZARD WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 3 PM FRIDAY TO 6 AM EST
SUNDAY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON HAS
ISSUED A BLIZZARD WARNING...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 3 PM FRIDAY
TO 6 AM EST SUNDAY. THE BLIZZARD WATCH IS NO LONGER IN EFFECT.

* HAZARD TYPES...HEAVY SNOW AND WIND WITH BLOWING AND DRIFTING
SNOW FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. SLEET MAY MIX WITH
THE SNOW FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING EAST OF INTERSTATE
95 BEFORE CHANGING BACK TO ALL SNOW BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON.

* ACCUMULATIONS...SNOW ACCUMULATION OF 18 TO 24 INCHES IN THE
EASTERN SUBURBS OF WASHINGTON DC...AND 24 TO 30 INCHES IN THE
WESTERN SUBURBS. THE CITY OF WASHINGTON DC IS EXPECTED TO
RECEIVE AROUND 24 INCHES.

* TIMING...HEAVY SNOW WILL DEVELOP LATE FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND
CONTINUE THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO
DETERIORATE FRIDAY AFTERNOON WITH THE HEAVIEST SNOW...STRONGEST
WINDS...AND POTENTIAL LIFE THREATENING CONDITIONS EXPECTED
FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY.

* IMPACTS...HEAVY SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW WILL CAUSE DANGEROUS
CONDITIONS AND WILL BE A THREAT TO LIFE AND PROPERTY. TRAVEL
IS EXPECTED TO BE SEVERELY LIMITED IF NOT IMPOSSIBLE DURING
THE HEIGHT OF THE STORM FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY. VISIBILITY
WILL BE REDUCED TO NEAR ZERO AT TIMES IN WHITEOUT CONDITIONS.

* WINDS...NORTHEAST 25 TO 35 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 50
MPH...BECOMING NORTH SATURDAY.

by **jimv45** Thu Jan 21, 2016 2:53 pm

doc i am south of hyde but i right on the fence but following snow storms for a long time like yourself I bet I have never seen a cutoff this bad i still think there is something surprising coming but will see!!!

by **jmanley32** Thu Jan 21, 2016 2:56 pm

jimv45 wrote:doc i am south of hyde but i right on the fence but following snow storms for a long time like yourself I bet I have never seen a cutoff this bad i still think there is something surprising coming but will see!!!

Short rage models my friend, I know they aren't trusted this far out but they have all shown positive trends. Think at the LR models at their near end for this storm were positive, now they have gone opposite, so maybe its the SR models turn to get this right.

by **jmanley32** Thu Jan 21, 2016 2:58 pm

What is really odd to me is my local forecast by NWS has 6-13, but the wsw has 4-8? That seems very strange.

by **docstox12** Thu Jan 21, 2016 3:00 pm

jimv45 wrote:doc i am south of hyde but i right on the fence but following snow storms for a long time like yourself I bet I have never seen a cutoff this bad i still think there is something surprising coming but will see!!!

Ok jim,hoping for a few ticks north but,like you say, we'll see.Thinking at this juncture 3 to 6 up here.Even NYC misses out on the 24 to 30 inches forecast for western suburbs of DC.This storm is more of a southern slider type, never good for us up here.

by **snow247** Thu Jan 21, 2016 3:02 pm

Euro no good

by **Dtone** Thu Jan 21, 2016 3:03 pm

jmanley32 wrote:What is really odd to me is my local forecast by NWS has 6-13, but the wsw has 4-8? That seems very strange.

Check your odds of various snow amounts according to the NWS.
For Yonkers most likely is 9", near 40% chance of foot

http://www.weather.gov/okx/winter

by **Frank_Wx** Thu Jan 21, 2016 3:03 pm

EURO!!!!

by **snow247** Thu Jan 21, 2016 3:04 pm

Euro chasing convection again.

by **Frank_Wx** Thu Jan 21, 2016 3:06 pm

Euro doing the convection crap like other globals but frontogenesis expanded north. Very nice run for NYC and LI.

01/23/16 Storm Update #4 - A Tough 1st Call - Page 19 ECMWF_MSLPThickQPF_ne_f57

01/23/16 Storm Update #4 - A Tough 1st Call - Page 19 ECMWF_MSLPThickQPF_ne_f57

01/23/16 Storm Update #4 - A Tough 1st Call - Page 19 ECMWF_MSLPThickQPF_ne_f60

01/23/16 Storm Update #4 - A Tough 1st Call - Page 19 ECMWF_MSLPThickQPF_ne_f63

by **Frank_Wx** Thu Jan 21, 2016 3:07 pm

And the 12z JMA is almost 1.00 qpf

by **Frank_Wx** Thu Jan 21, 2016 3:12 pm

Here is what JB told his son, Garrett. I'm in a group with Garrett on facebook.

Quote

Just talked to father. With regards to how sharp the cut off is and why the low isn't tucked and just slides ENE.

"i just don't understand it, and when I don't understand it, it either means I am dead wrong, or the models are completely full of crap." Lol.

Then told me that his post this morning on weatherbell is directed at those who are living and dying by the models that have no clue how to handle the end game with this. If it shows it tomorrow at 12z, then yes the models snuffed out an extremely complex situation. Or even up until tomorrow they will have no clue how to handle the relationship between the 500mb, vorticity and the surface. And odds are they don't have an idea.

And here is the RPM

by **NjWeatherGuy** Thu Jan 21, 2016 3:13 pm

Waking up to see the CMC and EURO continue to look terrible is not what I wanted to see. Apparently the UKIE came north but the rest of the major globals look considerably worse. Another SE tick today and no consensus from the models, figures. What a frickin horrible forecast...

by **amugs** Thu Jan 21, 2016 3:15 pm

Yes h5 and 7 are a bit further North if it doesn't jump after the convection est we have a reaLLY GOOD/GREAT RUN.

by **jimv45** Thu Jan 21, 2016 3:16 pm

yea frank i have never seen such a sharp cutoff like this one could the models just be lost?

by **jmanley32** Thu Jan 21, 2016 3:17 pm

NYC gets 4-5 inches I get 3-4, how is that a good run for city area?

by **jmanley32** Thu Jan 21, 2016 3:19 pm

I can post the wxbell snow map, but apparently my posts cause viruses lol, someone else do it?

by **Vinnydula** Thu Jan 21, 2016 3:20 pm

I think we can give up some hope now.

by Sponsored content