Re: 01/23/16 Storm Update #4 - A Tough 1st Call

by **SoulSingMG** Thu Jan 21, 2016 1:16 am

As of now, the GFS, CMC, and EURO agree.

by **Joe Snow** Thu Jan 21, 2016 1:17 am

Same as last year, these big storms are not handled by the models that well. Uggg

by **SoulSingMG** Thu Jan 21, 2016 1:18 am

If by 12z the models haven't corrected in our favor, I'd say it'll be a moderate event at best for NYC.

by **Joe Snow** Thu Jan 21, 2016 1:20 am

SoulSingMG wrote:If by 12z the models haven't corrected in our favor, I'd say it'll be a moderate event at best for NYC.

48 hours to go and plenty of time left..............

by **Joe Snow** Thu Jan 21, 2016 1:26 am

01/23/16 Storm Update #4 - A Tough 1st Call - Page 11 Amazed10

My Reaction too the model runs tonight

by Guest Thu Jan 21, 2016 2:57 am

SoulSingMG wrote:As of now, the GFS, CMC, and EURO agree.

Change the scroll and take down the avatar pale

by **NjWeatherGuy** Thu Jan 21, 2016 3:03 am

03z SREF

http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/Image.php?fhr=072&image=data%2Fsref%2F03%2Fsref_namer_072_precip_p06.gif&model=sref&area=namer¶m=precip_p06&group=Model+Guidance&preselected_formatted_cycle_date=20160121+03+UTC&imageSize=M&ps=

by **NjWeatherGuy** Thu Jan 21, 2016 3:04 am

http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/Image.php?fhr=060&image=data%2Fsref%2F03%2Fsref_namer_060_mslp.gif&model=sref&area=namer¶m=mslp&group=Model+Guidance&preselected_formatted_cycle_date=20160121+03+UTC&imageSize=M&ps=
http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/Image.php?fhr=069&image=data%2Fsref%2F03%2Fsref_namer_069_mslp.gif&model=sref&area=namer¶m=mslp&group=Model+Guidance&preselected_formatted_cycle_date=20160121+03+UTC&imageSize=M&ps=

Mslp

by **NjWeatherGuy** Thu Jan 21, 2016 3:31 am

6z NAM she blows, goodnight myself lol....

http://www.instantweathermaps.com/NAM-php/showmap-conussfc.php?run=2016012106&time=6&var=REFC&hour=057

by **NjWeatherGuy** Thu Jan 21, 2016 3:42 am

Holy crap, the NAM really outdid itself again, finally punching out here NJ strong night crew here 6z NAM snow map... a thing of beauty.... good night and good morning to others.

http://www.instantweathermaps.com/NAM-php/showmap-conussfc.php?run=2016012106&time=PER&var=ASNOWI&hour=078

by **algae888** Thu Jan 21, 2016 3:47 am

01/23/16 Storm Update #4 - A Tough 1st Call - Page 11 Namconus_asnow_neus_29

6z nam

by **algae888** Thu Jan 21, 2016 3:49 am

from upton maybe they are using the nam....
...BLIZZARD WATCH IN EFFECT FROM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY
AFTERNOON...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN UPTON HAS ISSUED A BLIZZARD
WATCH...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY
AFTERNOON.

* LOCATIONS...THE FIVE BOROUGHS OF NEW YORK CITY...COASTAL
PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST NEW JERSEY...AND LONG ISLAND.

* HAZARD TYPES...HEAVY SNOW ALONG WITH STRONG AND POTENTIALLY
DAMAGING WINDS.

* ACCUMULATIONS...SNOW ACCUMULATION OF 8 TO 12 INCHES.

* WINDS...NORTHEAST 25 TO 35 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH.

* TEMPERATURES...IN THE LOWER 30S.

* VISIBILITIES...ONE QUARTER MILE OR LESS AT TIMES.

* TIMING...SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON.

* IMPACTS...EXTREMELY DANGEROUS TRAVEL DUE TO HEAVY SNOWFALL AND
STRONG WINDS WITH WHITEOUT CONDITIONS LIKELY. SECONDARY AND
TERTIARY ROADS MAY BECOME IMPASSABLE. STRONG WINDS MAY DOWN
POWER LINES AND TREE LIMBS.

by **algae888** Thu Jan 21, 2016 3:51 am

01/23/16 Storm Update #4 - A Tough 1st Call - Page 11 StormTotalSnowFcst

upton new snow map... look at staten island

by **algae888** Thu Jan 21, 2016 3:55 am

01/23/16 Storm Update #4 - A Tough 1st Call - Page 11 StormTotalQPFFcst

either mixing over some coastal areas or low ratios

by **algae888** Thu Jan 21, 2016 4:22 am

rgem looks like the nam...
01/23/16 Storm Update #4 - A Tough 1st Call - Page 11 Rgem_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_16

by **skinsfan1177** Thu Jan 21, 2016 4:30 am

Ok reading through last night and this morning runs. Nan huge hit but how reliable. GFS good hit and good hit Euro went easy but looking at it for my location still looked good

by **skinsfan1177** Thu Jan 21, 2016 4:47 am

Hearing 06z nam big hit again. Anyone know what GFS is doing at 6z should be important and hopefully not what it did last night with c.f..

by **snow247** Thu Jan 21, 2016 5:13 am

NAM cut back north of the city.

by **frank 638** Thu Jan 21, 2016 5:18 am

I am happy we have a blizzard watch I am hoping snow totals go up

by **skinsfan1177** Thu Jan 21, 2016 5:22 am

snow247 wrote:NAM cut back north of the city.

Snow do you know what GFS does

by **frank 638** Thu Jan 21, 2016 5:32 am

Why does national weather service has me for snow sleet and rain then back to snow what the heck

by **snow247** Thu Jan 21, 2016 6:12 am

NWS has me in 6"-8". Doubt that happens but it would be nice.

by **Quietace** Thu Jan 21, 2016 6:28 am

frank 638 wrote:Why does national weather service has me for snow sleet and rain then back to snow what the heck

They still believe strong east wind will change over the coastal plain. This is in agreement with WFO Mount Holly's thinkings.

by **jmanley32** Thu Jan 21, 2016 6:36 am

Ha I knew I wouldn't get that blizzard watch yet I border the bronx sour tell me t g at down street go have blizzard and I'm not lol. Upped my totals 8 tob12. God let's hope by some miracle the Nam has defied odds.

by **Dtone** Thu Jan 21, 2016 6:38 am

frank 638 wrote:Why does national weather service has me for snow sleet and rain then back to snow what the heck

I dont see that in the NWS forecast for me. All snow 6" - 14"
unless its your specific zip.

I see it now. If you put an zip code on the eastern edge of the bx by the Sound they have wintry mix in the forecast

by Biggin23 Thu Jan 21, 2016 6:39 am

Mt Holly is still pretty bullish for the area. They have me between 13-17 inches.

by **jmanley32** Thu Jan 21, 2016 6:41 am

Weird wsw says 4 to 8 but map shows 8 to 12 for me. See where the blizzard watch ends at bronx border and wsw starts I'm in the cross hair right on that line. It's a county thing. They can't split up.counties. I could see it being issued later for southern wc. If not I just hope snow amounts don't go down.

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