01/23/16 Storm Update #4 - A Tough 1st Call

I can post the wxbell snow map, but apparently my posts cause viruses lol, someone else do it?

I think we can give up some hope now.

amugs wrote:Yes h5 and 7 are a bit further North if it doesn't jump after the convection est we have a reaLLY GOOD/GREAT RUN.

Models seem to be struggling with that... Could the lower res globals be struggling with the convective setup where theyre forming multiple lows and stringing out the energy early shunting it OTS when it should come further north because it was trying to place slp centers where the convection is? Maybe wishful thinking but may also explain the terrible inconsistency and why the CMC had 3 lows...

Dtone wrote:

jmanley32 wrote:What is really odd to me is my local forecast by NWS has 6-13, but the wsw has 4-8? That seems very strange.

Check your odds of various snow amounts according to the NWS.
For Yonkers most likely is 9", near 40% chance of foot

http://www.weather.gov/okx/winter

2-20 lol, gee the models got this nailed....

Vinnydula wrote:I think we can give up some hope now.

I am worried vinny, but the short ranges still give hope, nam especially but its still to far out.

I really hope the ECM is having CF like the CMC...

Honestly like sroc says hug a human not a model, atm I do not see anything good coming of the models no this is not banter stating facts from what I am seeing, central jersey south does very well but from there north is looking less and less likely on the LR models anyways.

jersey shore sucks!

The fat lady is about ready to sing in Poughkeepsie. She said she will wait until the 00z runs tonight.

I agree jman, it is what it is

State of emergency was declared for the state of Pennsylvania

Frank has not taken banner down, this means he still has hope, trust in Frank.

jmanley32 wrote:Frank has not taken banner down, this means he still has hope, trust in Frank.

No reason to take it down yet over areas are still in pretty good shape I know theirs sharp cutoffs to the north but Cnj snj still look to get hit hard.

jmanley32 wrote:Frank has not taken banner down, this means he still has hope, trust in Frank.

Somebody in our viewing area is gonna get a lot, right now its probably the people in SNJ but things can still change. He also says last nights runs cut totals which is true, the next 24 hours are most important for last minute trends.

jake732 wrote:jersey shore sucks!

Go move then

The RGEM, RPM, and NAM show very similar outcomes. No true jump to convection.
Lower Res Globals due. Have to wait and see

Quietace wrote:

jake732 wrote:jersey shore sucks!

Go move then

great answer...not

The fat lady is going to sing snow may not even make it pass 684 local mets say snow may not reach ct too dry up this way.

Family in DC said that it's complete mayhem down there, there's no meat left in the supermarkets!

Quietace wrote:The RGEM, RPM, and NAM show very similar outcomes. No true jump to convection.
Lower Res Globals do. Have to wait and see

Exactly.  There is no sense jumping off the same bridge that many of you have jumped off this time yesterday.  Clearly there is a ton of variability occurring here.  Just like yesterday, pause for serious concern, but there is still enough time to jog things back 50miles north which will make a huge diff if it occurs.  Dont JUMP!!!!!

sroc4 wrote:

Quietace wrote:The RGEM, RPM, and NAM show very similar outcomes. No true jump to convection.
Lower Res Globals due. Have to wait and see

Exactly.  There is no sense jumping off the same bridge that many of you have jumped off this time yesterday.  Clearly there is a ton of variability occurring here.  Just like yesterday, pause for serious concern, but there is still enough time to jog things back 50miles north which will make a huge diff if it occurs.  Dont JUMP!!!!!

What if I already did jump and I'm halfway down? Can someone throw me a rope and bring me back up?

QPF NYC/NJ  area  (i-78 to i-195)  Less North to more south of course.
 
SREF: 1.25- 1.55
NAM:  1.75 - 2.05
GFS:  0.55 - 1.45
GEFS:  0.85 - 1.45
RGEM:  
GGEM: 0.40 - 0.80
UKMET: 0.85 - 1.50
EURO:  0.40 - 0.80

syosnow94 wrote:

sroc4 wrote:

Quietace wrote:The RGEM, RPM, and NAM show very similar outcomes. No true jump to convection.
Lower Res Globals due. Have to wait and see

Exactly.  There is no sense jumping off the same bridge that many of you have jumped off this time yesterday.  Clearly there is a ton of variability occurring here.  Just like yesterday, pause for serious concern, but there is still enough time to jog things back 50miles north which will make a huge diff if it occurs.  Dont JUMP!!!!!

What if I already did jump and I'm halfway down?  Can someone throw me a rope and bring me back up?

No.

syosnow94 wrote:

sroc4 wrote:

Quietace wrote:The RGEM, RPM, and NAM show very similar outcomes. No true jump to convection.
Lower Res Globals due. Have to wait and see

Exactly.  There is no sense jumping off the same bridge that many of you have jumped off this time yesterday.  Clearly there is a ton of variability occurring here.  Just like yesterday, pause for serious concern, but there is still enough time to jog things back 50miles north which will make a huge diff if it occurs.  Dont JUMP!!!!!

What if I already did jump and I'm halfway down?  Can someone throw me a rope and bring me back up?

Do you want a parachute to make it a slightly gentler landing?

NWS just lowered total QPF expected and my snow totals in the text forecast!

Hey guys...been a while since i've been on but i've been here reading all your posts and keeping up. I now work during the storms clearing city streets. I know this probably belongs on banter but hopefully this keeps some off the roof! I totally understand everyone's frustration here...i'm a snow junky too! We're all born that way! But never give up hope till the storms actually gone and the clouds are breaking! I always bring up the '96 storm...the king in my lifetime! I'm in Queens and that baby gave us 30"!! The big difference with that storm was the arctic high to our NW was extreme....it was 7 deg that morning! I live the cold but i never felt that cold in my life when i went out that morning! The dampness went through your bones and that wonderful smell of the snow coming!! That temp assured us that no matter how close that storm got most likely there would be no rain/ snow line issues! And every beautiful flake that fell stuck immediately! Back then all i had was the weather channel...when they actually stuck to weather!! And a little noaa weather radio...yeah ,i'm old! No computer so my only radar outlet was the WC's "local on the 8's"! Everyone went to bed the night before storm hit hearing 3-6" and possibly 6-12" forecast. The jackpot zone was over DC and PHI...24+. I'll never forget stayin up all night to watch the live winter weather updates they had every hour or so. Right around 2am Paul Kocin came on with the latest comp model updates...telling us that with the latest information they now need to shift the jackpot totals NE!! That the bullseye for this storm is now over NYC!! More times then not in my life when we have gotten our monster storms that has been the case....heaviest totals to our south and west....head for the hills its coming! Especially when they say Boston may get shut out with this one....Boston rarely gets shut out!! Mother nature loves the snow lovers up there!!! So keep faith guys...theres always time for it to change! Keep the spirit of '96 alive!!