01/23/16 Storm Update #4 - A Tough 1st Call

Mt Holly is still pretty bullish for the area. They have me between 13-17 inches.

Weird wsw says 4 to 8 but map shows 8 to 12 for me. See where the blizzard watch ends at bronx border and wsw starts I'm in the cross hair right on that line. It's a county thing. They can't split up.counties. I could see it being issued later for southern wc. If not I just hope snow amounts don't go down.

Biggin23 wrote:Mt Holly is still pretty bullish for the area. They have me between 13-17 inches.

Noggin I don't know if we will changeover Alot of model runs looked cold enough all the way to coast to support snow souther ocean county may mix.thoroughout all runs we still seem to be in good shape

skinsfan1177 wrote:

Biggin23 wrote:Mt Holly is still pretty bullish for the area. They have me between 13-17 inches.

Noggin I don't know if we will changeover Alot of model runs looked cold enough all the way to coast to support snow souther ocean county may mix.thoroughout all runs we still seem to be in good shape

Skins, their new snowfall map finally adjusted to my thinking. No mixing except down by ACY and cape may

skinsfan1177 wrote:

Biggin23 wrote:Mt Holly is still pretty bullish for the area. They have me between 13-17 inches.

Noggin I don't know if we will changeover Alot of model runs looked cold enough all the way to coast to support snow souther ocean county may mix.thoroughout all runs we still seem to be in good shape

Yeah, it's a tough one. I'm halfway between Trenton and the Shore right on I-195. I'm hoping we don't get stuck with winds coming out of the East too long and we stay primarily all snow. Moving here from the south in the summer of 2014, 13-17!inches would be the biggest snowfall I have ever seen. Hopefully it pans out!!

I justcheck again the National Weather Service and they have me snow to wintry mix then back to snow with accumulations of 3 to 7  and 4 to 8 at night that's strange
you're right I guess they are worried about the strong east wind would cause a change over

jmanley32 wrote:Weird wsw says 4 to 8 but map shows 8 to 12 for me. See where the blizzard watch ends at bronx border and wsw starts I'm in the cross hair right on that line. It's a county thing. They can't split up.counties. I could see it being issued later for southern wc. If not I just hope snow amounts don't go down.

They have predetermined areas. Westchester they can split btwn northern and southern. Queens too. Bx doesnt get split. The county has to be big enough or have a signifant geographic divide somewhere. Yonkers weather..esp south yonkers is more in line with NYC than most of Westchester county anyway.

RPM and TWC forcast looks decent. They have me 12-18 and 8-12 to NYC.

Dtone wrote:

jmanley32 wrote:Weird wsw says 4 to 8 but map shows 8 to 12 for me. See where the blizzard watch ends at bronx border and wsw starts I'm in the cross hair right on that line. It's a county thing. They can't split up.counties. I could see it being issued later for southern wc. If not I just hope snow amounts don't go down.

They have predetermined areas. Westchester they can split btwn northern and southern. Queens too. Bx doesnt get split. The county has to be big enough or have a signifant geographic divide somewhere.  Yonkers weather..esp south yonkers is more in line with NYC than most of Westchester county anyway.

I know lol just give me my darn blizzard watch lol. And I'm basically in Bronx behind van cortland park. It's just logistics as I said last night but winds being 20mph lighter here not usually. Ur right they map split the county later the southern should b under the b watch imo I think winds will gust more than 30. Let's see what frank says with his maps todsy. The fact nws is factoring in a part of bam is amazing.

Quietace wrote:

skinsfan1177 wrote:

Biggin23 wrote:Mt Holly is still pretty bullish for the area. They have me between 13-17 inches.

Noggin I don't know if we will changeover Alot of model runs looked cold enough all the way to coast to support snow souther ocean county may mix.thoroughout all runs we still seem to be in good shape

Skins, their new snowfall map finally adjusted to my thinking. No mixing except down by ACY and cape may

Thanks Ace that's good news for snow weennies. I watched all the models last night and this morning and it seems coastal ocean is always in a good spot lol

Seems that the invisible wall is still apparent on the latest models. Cut off is insane. Hoping for some late good trends today as the storm comes together...I guess i'd rather be on the northern fringe and get a surprise higher accumulation rather than a forecast bullseye that falls apart last minute

Blizzard watch for NYC and LI, winter storm watch everywhere else, and coastal flood watch down into Jersey Shore.

You think we will see good trends, or things look to be locked in?

It's global models vs short range hi res models. Let's see if global models lose the convective feedback today.

Frank, what are the chances for CNJ

Ok....blizzard watches right? Too far inland but NWS bumped me from 4-8 yesterday when the first advisory went out to 8-14 now even with new model trends

Jersey coast should be in blizzard watch

snowlover78 wrote:Frank, what are the chances for CNJ

I'm still thinking 6-12 there. 

RJB8525 wrote:Ok....blizzard watches right? Too far inland but NWS bumped me from 4-8 yesterday when the first advisory went out to 8-14 now even with new model trends

HKT is not in the blizzard watch. They're in the winter storm watch

skinsfan1177 wrote:Jersey coast should be in blizzard watch

I think they want to emphasize the coastal flooding more.

Frank_Wx wrote:

snowlover78 wrote:Frank, what are the chances for CNJ

I'm still thinking 6-12 there. 

RJB8525 wrote:Ok....blizzard watches right? Too far inland but NWS bumped me from 4-8 yesterday when the first advisory went out to 8-14 now even with new model trends

HKT is not in the blizzard watch. They're in the winter storm watch

Oh I know, I find it strange NWS has 8-12 for the blizzard areas but 8-14 for me

Did something change for NNJ during the night?

do u agree with Upton and Mt holly latest storm totals?

Frank_Wx wrote:

skinsfan1177 wrote:Jersey coast should be in blizzard watch

I think they want to emphasize the coastal flooding more.

Good point Frank I think to many people are concerned about snow amounts. I read last night they are anticipating 8-10 ft storm surge worst since sandy

Mt holly max potential map

Frank_Wx wrote:It's global models vs short range hi res models. Let's see if global models lose the convective feedback today.

Frank I am sorry to say but I really don't think convective feedback is the main culprit here.  I really think its that we have a decaying system by the time we get it all the way up here.  The reason it still looks all wird is that you still have the enhanced area of convection to the east in response to the 300mb jet streak to the NE.  I think its going to be a battle in the models, like you said, global vs s/r hi res to see how much of the main LP precip shield can hold up and how far north can it get.  The ULL matures too soon leading to this surface LP being in that latter stages of it evolution.  The start time keeps getting pushed back because everything slows down as soon as we have our mature ULL and surface LP which is trending earier and earlier. Result decaying/occluded/fmain LP filling in.  I don't like it.   Im not saying things wont change but I just don't like it.

NWS Winter Storm Watch out of Mount Holly had my area at 4-8" in the watch issued 3:30 pm yesterday, but now up to 8-14" in the watch issued 4:48 this morning. So they've actually increased their totals with the overnight runs. Not surprised it isn't a Blizzard watch here. Need sustained winds to get higher for that (atm only calling for 15-20 mph sustained winds, gusts over 35). Those winds are more likely further south and then off the coast as the storm pulls away to the NE (which is likely why they threw it up for LI).

It is strange that Mt Holly increased (somewhat dramatically) their totals overnight as the models are hinting at some problems with the storm (except the NAM which is off the charts).

Frank here is a fox snow total map update